Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Selective predation on mature male Byblis japonicus (amphipoda: Gammaridea) by the barface cardinalfish,Apogon semilineatus

Ontogenetic change of habitat depths of Nautilus pompilius in the Philippines (Tañon Strait) and Fiji is considered by comparing ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios in septa and cameral fluid of live-caught specimens and ambient sea-water. ¹⁸O values of cameral liquid become heavier with decreasing volume within a chamber, which may be due to isotopic fractionation during discharge across the siphuncular wall. All of the seven Philippine and Fiji specimens analyzed show a distinct change in ¹⁸O from light values in the first seven septa to heavier values in the succeeding septa. Two different isotopic temperature scales are obtained for the Fiji and Philippine populations, suggesting a differential vital effect of metabolism between them. Sightly light ¹⁸O values in Septa 1 to 7 and hatching at relatively high temperatures in aquaria both suggest that N. pompilius hatch at the shallowest depths within their inhabitable vertical range. Depths of postembryonic animals in the Philippines and Fiji waters estimated from the isotopic temperature-depth diagrams range from 120 to 160 m and from 440 to 520 m, respectively, both of which correlate well with capture records. More than several tens of small-scale ¹⁸O cycles are detected in the sequence of nacreous layers within the single septum of a submature Philippine specimen. This can be interpreted as reflecting daily vertical migration.     

Pastoral and environmental security in East Africa

The most vulnerable people in Third World countries are often accused of destroying forests and fragile ecosystems and of practising destructive forms of agriculture and animal husbandry. The key to environmental sustainability, however, lies in more reliable production and food security at the local level. This article focuses on individual and household security amongst dryland herders in East Africa. The most crucial aspect of pastoral viability is the maintenance of a balance between family herd and size of household. Risk-spreading, through dependence on relatives, the borrowing of animals, redistribution through marriage etc. is a general principle of social behaviour amongst these peoples. Consideration of local-level security, furthermore, reveals the connection between ecological stress and political conflict. Only by establishing secure access to food for individuals and families can sustainable development and political security, not only at the local but also at the national and international levels, be achieved.     

Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Soil fauna and soil microflora as possible indicators of soil pollution

Research on biological indicators of soil pollution is hampered by soil variability and temporal and spatial fluctuations of numbers of soil animals. These characters on the other hand promote a high biological diversity in the soil. A high diversity combined with persistent soil pollutants increases the chance to select good indicators. However research on these topics is still limited. Examples of specific indicators are the changed arthropod species patterns due to pesticide influence and the changed soil enzyme activity under the influence of specific heavy metals. Another approach is to look for organisms that give a general indication of soil pollution. In this respect the earthworm species Allolobophora caliginosa proved to be sensitive for different types of manure especially pig manure with copper, for sewage sludge, for municipal waste compost and for fly ash. A third way of indication is by organisms accumulating pollutants. For some heavy metals (Cd, Zn), earthworms are very efficient accumulators. More research is needed especially on the specific relation between biological responses and abiotic soil characteristics.     

Factor analysis of trace-element data from tree-bark samples in The Netherlands

Monte Carlo-assisted factor analysis has been applied to a data set of 20 trace-element concentrations in tree-bark samples obtained from 123 locations in The Netherlands, with the aim to investigate the suitability of bark as a biomonitor for air pollution. A Monte Carlo approach was used to give more insight to the uncertainties and significance levels of the factor analysis results. Notwith-standing a rather strong influence of soil material on the concentration levels, factor analysis enabled the identification of five significant pollution source types, all of which corresponded with source types found in an earlier biomonitoring study in The Netherlands using epiphytic lichens. A more detailed comparison with the lichen results showed a remarkable difference in lead concentrations between bark and lichen. It was concluded that bark can be successfully employed as a biomonitor for air pollution. The power of factor analysis to adequately determine the soil contribution may render extensive sample washing procedures superfluous.