Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna.

Species phenology is increasingly being used to explore the effects of climate change and other environmental stressors. Long-term monitoring data sets are essential for understanding both patterns manifest by individual species and more complex patterns evident at the community level. This study used records of 78 butterfly species observed on 626 days across 27 years at a site in northern California, USA, to build quadratic logistic regression models of the observation probability of each species for each day of the year. Daily species probabilities were summed to develop a potential aggregate species richness (PASR) model, indicating expected daily species richness. Daily positive and negative contributions to PASR were calculated, which can be used to target optimum sampling time frames. Residuals to PASR indicate a rate of decline of 0.12 species per year over the course of the study. When PASR was calculated for wet and dry years, wet years were found to delay group phenology by up to 17 days and reduce the maximum annual expected species from 32.36 to 30. Three tests to determine how well the PASR model reflected the butterfly fauna dynamics were all positive: We correlated probabilities developed with species presence/absence data to observed abundance by species, tested species' predicted phenological patterns against known biological characteristics, and compared the PASR curve to a spline-fitted curve calculated from the original species richness observations. Modeling individual species' flight windows was possible from presence/absence data, an approach that could be used on other similar records for butterfly communities with seasonal phenologies, and for common species with far fewer dates than used here. It also provided a method to assess sample frequency guidelines for other butterfly monitoring programs.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background,emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006–2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO₂ in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO₂ and NO_x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO₂ control scenario, and the 2010 NO_x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.     

An Integrated WebGIS Framework for Volunteered Geographic Information and Social Media in Soil and Water Conservation

Volunteered geographic information and social networking in a WebGIS has the potential to increase public participation in soil and water conservation, promote environmental awareness and change, and provide timely data that may be otherwise unavailable to policymakers in soil and water conservation management. The objectives of this study were: (1) to develop a framework for combining current technologies, computing advances, data sources, and social media; and (2) develop and test an online web mapping interface. The mapping interface integrates Microsoft Silverlight, Bing Maps, ArcGIS Server, Google Picasa Web Albums Data API, RSS, Google Analytics, and Facebook to create a rich user experience. The website allows the public to upload photos and attributes of their own subdivisions or sites they have identified and explore other submissions. The website was made available to the public in early February 2011 at and evaluated for its potential long-term success in a pilot study.     

Trapping phosphorus in runoff with a phosphorus removal structure

Reduction of phosphorus (P) inputs to surface waters may decrease eutrophication. Some researchers have proposed filtering dissolved P in runoff with P-sorptive byproducts in structures placed in hydrologically active areas with high soil P concentrations. The objectives of this study were to construct and monitor a P removal structure in a suburban watershed and test the ability of empirically developed flow-through equations to predict structure performance. Steel slag was used as the P sorption material in the P removal structure. Water samples were collected before and after the structure using automatic samples and analyzed for total dissolved P. During the first 5 mo of structure operation, 25% of all dissolved P was removed from rainfall and irrigation events. Phosphorus was removed more efficiently during low flow rate irrigation events with a high retention time than during high flow rate rainfall events with a low retention time. The six largest flow events occurred during storm flow and accounted for 75% of the P entering the structure and 54% of the P removed by the structure. Flow-through equations developed for predicting structure performance produced reasonable estimates of structure "lifetime" (16.8 mo). However, the equations overpredicted cumulative P removal. This was likely due to differences in pH, total Ca and Fe, and alkalinity between the slag used in the structure and the slag used for model development. This suggests the need for an overall model that can predict structure performance based on individual material properties.     

Assessing an exotic plant surveying program in the Mojave Desert, Clark County, Nevada, USA

Exotic species can threaten native ecosystems and reduce services that ecosystems provide to humans. Early detection of incipient populations of exotic species is a key step in containing exotics before explosive population growth and corresponding impacts occur. We report the results of the first three years of an exotic plant early detection and treatment program conducted along more than 3,000 km of transportation corridors within an area >1.5 million ha in the Mojave Desert, USA. Incipient populations of 43 exotic plant species were mapped using global positioning and geographic information systems. Brassica tournefortii (Sahara mustard) infested the most soil types (47% of 256) surveyed in the study area, while Nicotiana glauca (tree tobacco) and others currently occupy less than 5% of soil types. Malcolmia africana (African mustard) was disproportionately detected on gypsum soils, occurring on 59% of gypsum soil types compared to 27% of all surveyed soils. Gypsum soils constitute unique rare plant habitat in this region, and by conventional wisdom were not previously considered prone to invasion. While this program has provided an initial assessment of the landscape-scale distribution of exotic species along transportation corridors, evaluations of both the survey methods and the effectiveness of treating incipient populations are needed. An exotic plant information system most useful to resource mangers will likely include integrating planning oriented coarse-scale surveys, more detailed monitoring of targeted locations, and research on species life histories, community invasibility, and treatment effectiveness.     

Multifaceted Value Profiles of Forest Owner Categories in South Sweden: The River Helge å Catchment as a Case Study

Forest landscapes provide benefits from a wide range of goods, function and intangible values. But what are different forest owner categories’ profiles of economic use and non-use values? This study focuses on the complex forest ownership pattern of the River Helge å catchment including the Kristianstad Vattenrike Biosphere Reserve in southern Sweden. We made 89 telephone interviews with informants representing the four main forest owner categories. Our mapping included consumptive and non-consumptive direct use values, indirect use values, and non-use values such as natural and cultural heritage. While the value profiles of non-industrial forest land owners and municipalities included all value categories, the forest companies focused on wood production, and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency on nature protection. We discuss the challenges of communicating different forest owners’ economic value profiles among stakeholders, the need for a broader suite of forest management systems, and fora for collaborative planning.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0374-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Conjunctive use of models to design cost-effective ozone control strategies

The management of tropospheric ozone (O3) is particularly difficult. The formulation of emission control strategies requires considerable information including: (1) emission inventories, (2) available control technologies, (3) meteorological data for critical design episodes, and (4) computer models that simulate atmospheric transport and chemistry. The simultaneous consideration of this information during control strategy design can be exceedingly difficult for a decision-maker. Traditional management approaches do not explicitly address cost minimization. This study presents a new approach for designing air quality management strategies; a simple air quality model is used conjunctively with a complex air quality model to obtain low-cost management strategies. A simple air quality model is used to identify potentially good solutions, and two heuristic methods are used to identify cost-effective control strategies using only a small number of simple air quality model simulations. Subsequently, the resulting strategies are verified and refined using a complex air quality model. The use of this approach may greatly reduce the number of complex air quality model runs that are required. An important component of this heuristic design framework is the use of the simple air quality model as a screening and exploratory tool. To achieve similar results with the simple and complex air     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Agroecosystem energy transitions in the old and new worlds: trajectories and determinants at the regional scale

Energy efficiency in biomass production is a major challenge for a future transition to sustainable food and energy provision. This study uses methodologically consistent data on agroecosystem energy flows and different metrics of energetic efficiency from seven regional case studies in North America (USA and Canada) and Europe (Spain and Austria) to investigate energy transitions in Western agroecosystems from the late nineteenth to the late twentieth centuries. We quantify indicators such as external final energy return on investment (EFEROI, i.e., final produce per unit of external energy input), internal final EROI (IFEROI, final produce per unit of biomass reused locally), and final EROI (FEROI, final produce per unit of total inputs consumed). The transition is characterized by increasing final produce accompanied by increasing external energy inputs and stable local biomass reused. External inputs did not replace internal biomass reinvestments, but added to them. The results were declining EFEROI, stable or increasing IFEROI, and diverging trends in FEROI. The factors shaping agroecosystem energy profiles changed in the course of the transition: Under advanced organic and frontier agriculture of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, population density and biogeographic conditions explained both agroecosystem productivity and energy inputs. In industrialized agroecosystems, biogeographic conditions and specific socio-economic factors influenced trends towards increased agroecosystem specialization. The share of livestock products in a region’s final produce was the most important factor determining energy returns on investment.