Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate‐induced species’ movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species’ movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving‐window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species’ dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate‐change‐informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present‐day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.     

Application of SWAT with and without Variable Source Area Hydrology to a Large Watershed

In this study, two different versions of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to simulate the hydrology and biogeochemical response of the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, in New York. The first version distributes overland flow in ways that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrology driven by saturation excess runoff, whereas the second version is the standard version of SWAT. These two models were each calibrated for streamflow (Flow), particulate phosphorus (PP), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and sediment (Sed) against measured data from the 1,200 km² Cannonsville watershed. The standard version of the model yielded an r² between the measured and simulated data of 0.85, 0.73, 0.70, and 0.72 for Flow, Sed, TDP, and PP, respectively. The VSA version yielded an r² of 0.84, 0.69, 0.72, and 0.53 for Flow, Sed, TDP, and PP, respectively. The two models were then used to determine the maximum upper bound on the reduction in phosphorus loading by removing all of the corn in the watershed. The average reductions between the two models were 65 and 37% for PP and TDP, respectively. The VSA version was also used to estimate the effect of moving corn land in the watershed from the wettest, most runoff prone areas to the driest, least runoff prone areas, which cannot be done directly with the standard SWAT model.     

Monitoring seasonal bat activity on a coastal barrier island in Maryland, USA

Research on effects of wind turbines on bats has increased dramatically in recent years because of significant numbers of bats killed by rotating wind turbine blades. Whereas most research has focused on the Midwest and inland portions of eastern North America, bat activity and migration on the Atlantic Coast has largely been unexamined. We used three long-term acoustic monitoring stations to determine seasonal bat activity patterns on the Assateague Island National Seashore, a barrier island off the coast of Maryland, from 2005 to 2006. We recorded five species, including eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis), big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus), hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus), and silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans). Seasonal bat activity (number of bat passes recorded) followed a cosine function and gradually increased beginning in April, peaked in August, and declined gradually until cessation in December. Based on autoregressive models, inter-night bat activity was autocorrelated for lags of seven nights or fewer but varied among acoustic monitoring stations. Higher nightly temperatures and lower wind speeds positively affected bat activity. When autoregressive model predictions were fitted to the observed nightly bat pass totals, model residuals >2 standard deviations from the mean existed only during migration periods, indicating that periodic increases in bat activity could not be accounted for by seasonal trends and weather variables alone. Rather, the additional bat passes were attributable to migrating bats. We conclude that bats, specifically eastern red, hoary, and silver-haired bats, use this barrier island during migration and that this phenomenon may have implications for the development of near and offshore wind energy.     

Microbial stress-response physiology and its implications for ecosystem function

Microorganisms have a variety of evolutionary adaptations and physiological acclimation mechanisms that allow them to survive and remain active in the face of environmental stress. Physiological responses to stress have costs at the organismal level that can result in altered ecosystem-level C, energy, and nutrient flows. These large-scale impacts result from direct effects on active microbes' physiology and by controlling the composition of the active microbial community. We first consider some general aspects of how microbes experience environmental stresses and how they respond to them. We then discuss the impacts of two important ecosystem-level stressors, drought and freezing, on microbial physiology and community composition. Even when microbial community response to stress is limited, the physiological costs imposed on soil microbes are large enough that they may cause large shifts in the allocation and fate of C and N. For example, for microbes to synthesize the osmolytes they need to survive a single drought episode they may consume up to 5% of total annual net primary production in grassland ecosystems, while acclimating to freezing conditions switches Arctic tundra soils from immobilizing N during the growing season to mineralizing it during the winter. We suggest that more effectively integrating microbial ecology into ecosystem ecology will require a more complete integration of microbial physiological ecology, population biology, and process ecology.     

Sources and dynamics of large logs in a temperate floodplain river.

Large logs, important agents of biophysical heterogeneity in temperate floodplain rivers, have been virtually eliminated from modified systems. Our purpose was to quantify the sources and dynamics of large logs (> or = 1 m diameter) in the mainstem of a nearly pristine system: the Queets River, Washington, USA. Erosion of forests by the river supplies 0.40 logs x (100 m)(-1) x yr(-1) to the channel. Most (72%) are new logs entering the river for the first time as the river undercuts mature fluvial terraces dominated by large conifers. Retrospective airphoto analyses demonstrate that, over 63 years, the Queets River recruits 95% of new logs from a riparian corridor extending 265 m laterally on both banks, mostly through channel meandering. However, input rates are patchy, with 10% of the valley length supplying 38% of the new logs. As the river moves laterally, remnant logs are left on channel surfaces that later develop riparian forests and reenter the river when those forests erode. Remnant logs lying on the floodplain forest floor surface or buried in alluvium constitute 21% and 7% of the annual inputs from bank erosion, respectively. We estimate that 50% of logs deposited in the channel in a given year, including those underpinning logjams, are transported downriver within five years. Over the next 55 years, bank erosion reclaims an additional 23%, leaving 27% of the logs stable for > 60 years. Simulations indicate that recurrent transport is common, with half of the large conifers being deposited in > or = 3 locations and transported > or = 1.5 km prior to disintegrating. One in ten logs links distant reaches by occupying > or = 7 locations spanning > or = 12.0 km. Instream supplies are therefore a mixture of new and old logs from nearby and upstream forests, sustained by the recapture and transport of stockpiled remnant logs during periods when new inputs are low. We propose that patchy input rates and the periodic rearrangement of large logs are important drivers of temporal variation in river valley habitats, adding to the spatial complexity created by stable logs. These findings underscore the importance of extensive mature forests and connectivity in temperate floodplain rivers.     

Productivity alters the scale dependence of the diversity-invasibility relationship

At small scales, areas with high native diversity are often resistant to invasion, while at large scales, areas with more native species harbor more exotic species, suggesting that different processes control the relationship between native and exotic species diversity at different spatial scales. Although the small-scale negative relationship between native and exotic diversity has a satisfactory explanation, we lack a mechanistic explanation for the change in relationship to positive at large scales. We investigated the native-exotic diversity relationship at three scales (range: 1-4000 km2) in California serpentine, a system with a wide range in the productivity of sites from harsh to lush. Native and exotic diversity were positively correlated at all three scales; it is rarer to detect a positive relationship at the small scales within which interactions between individuals occur. However, although positively correlated on average, the small-scale relationship between native and exotic diversity was positive at low-productivity sites and negative at high-productivity sites. Thus, the change in the relationship between native and exotic diversity does not depend on spatial scale per se, but occurs whenever environmental conditions change to promote species coexistence rather than competitive exclusion. This occurred within a single spatial scale when the environment shifted from being locally unproductive to productive.     

Random forests for classification in ecology

Classification procedures are some of the most widely used statistical methods in ecology. Random forests (RF) is a new and powerful statistical classifier that is well established in other disciplines but is relatively unknown in ecology. Advantages of RF compared to other statistical classifiers include (1) very high classification accuracy; (2) a novel method of determining variable importance; (3) ability to model complex interactions among predictor variables; (4) flexibility to perform several types of statistical data analysis, including regression, classification, survival analysis, and unsupervised learning; and (5) an algorithm for imputing missing values. We compared the accuracies of RF and four other commonly used statistical classifiers using data on invasive plant species presence in Lava Beds National Monument, California, USA, rare lichen species presence in the Pacific Northwest, USA, and nest sites for cavity nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA. We observed high classification accuracy in all applications as measured by cross-validation and, in the case of the lichen data, by independent test data, when comparing RF to other common classification methods. We also observed that the variables that RF identified as most important for classifying invasive plant species coincided with expectations based on the literature.     

Genetically informed captive breeding of hybrids of an extinct species of Galapagos tortoise

Hybridization poses a major challenge for species conservation because it threatens both genetic integrity and adaptive potential. Yet, hybridization can occasionally offer unprecedented opportunity for species recovery if the genome of an extinct taxon is present among living hybrids such that selective breeding could recapture it. We explored the design elements for establishing a captive-breeding program for Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.) built around individuals with admixed ancestry involving an extinct species. The target individuals were hybrids between the extinct species from Floreana Island, C. niger, and an extant species, C. becki, which were recently found in the endemic range of C. becki, from Wolf Volcano on Isabela Island. We combined genotypic data from 35 tortoises with high ancestry from C. niger with forward-in-time simulations to explore captive breeding strategies that maximized overall genetic diversity and ancestry from C. niger while accommodating resource constraints, species biology, and the urgency to return tortoises to Floreana Island for facilitating ecosystem restoration. Overall genetic diversity was maximized when in the simulation tortoises were organized in relatively small breeding groups. Substantial amounts of the C. niger genome were captured despite limited resources available for selectively breeding tortoises in captivity. Genetic diversity was maximized when captive-bred offspring were released to the wild rather than being used as additional breeders. Our results provide genetic-based and practical guidance on the inclusion of hybrids with genomic representation from extinct taxa into species restoration programs and informs the ongoing debate on the value of hybrids in biodiversity conservation.