Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

Information needs for marine pollution studies

Information needed for the resolution of environmental problems is a commodity with an economic value. The minimum necessary information implies minimal costs. The formulation of the information is considered for the case of biocides that can disrupt marine ecosystems.     

The characteristics of size distribution of suspended particulates in the air for sulphates and selected metals in different areas and seasons

The characteristics of the distribution of particles by size were investigated for sulphates and selected metals (Pb, Fe, Mn, and Cu) in the air in two urban and an industrial area during the winter and summer periods using an Andersen cascade impactor.In the case of metals, but not sulphates, the character of the area affected the value of mass median diameter. Lowest values were obtained in a sparsely populated urban area, whereas in a densely populated urban area and in the industrial area the values were higher.In the industrial area a high correlation coefficient was found between sulphate and manganese, and between sulphate and lead, as well as a high value of the equivalent Mn²⁺/SO _inf4 ^sup2- ratio for the total sample. It may therefore be assumed that in the industrial area manganese produces a catalytic effect on SO₂ conversion to sulphate. Among the investigated metals lead stands out as a dominant cation which binds to the sulphate ion in the industrial and densely populated areas.     

Relevance of radiation compensation litigation to compensation for toxic exposures

Several recent court decisions add to the growing body of law concerning the responsibility of Government in radiation matters and the quantum of proof needed to show causation between radiation exposures and certain types of cancer and leukemia. The courts have also been addressing a wide range of compensation claims for exposures to toxic chemicals with demonstration of causation being a particularly difficult task. Meanwhile, the Congress has been attempting to legislate a far reaching administrative and judicial framework for compensating toxic victims, including an easing of burden-of-proof requirements for demonstrating causation and a broadening of the basis for admissibility of scientific evidence. Drawing parallels between radiation and toxic exposure problems can be both instructive and misleading. Some of the technical issues are quite similar, including the importance of person-specific exposure estimates and of epidemiological studies. However, the uncertainties associated with toxic exposures are usually far greater, and the scientific data base for relating exposures and effects is much more uncertain.     

Determination of the working level of radon/thoron mixtures by personal α-dosimeters and environmental α-monitors using gross α-counting

Analytical procedures are presented which permit the determination of the Working Levels of the radon and thoron progenies with personal α-dosimeters and α-particle environmental monitors, operating on time integrating principles, from gross α-counts. Experiments have been carried out in an underground uranium mine and in a radon/thoron environmental chamber, specially designed for calibration purposes, to verify theoretical data. In general, and notwithstanding a number of complicating factors, fair to good agreement has been found between theoretical and experimental data. Experimental values have been found to be lower than theoretical values, an observation which is partly ascribed to plate-out of decay products in the instrument's sampling heads.     

Soil fauna and soil microflora as possible indicators of soil pollution

Research on biological indicators of soil pollution is hampered by soil variability and temporal and spatial fluctuations of numbers of soil animals. These characters on the other hand promote a high biological diversity in the soil. A high diversity combined with persistent soil pollutants increases the chance to select good indicators. However research on these topics is still limited. Examples of specific indicators are the changed arthropod species patterns due to pesticide influence and the changed soil enzyme activity under the influence of specific heavy metals. Another approach is to look for organisms that give a general indication of soil pollution. In this respect the earthworm species Allolobophora caliginosa proved to be sensitive for different types of manure especially pig manure with copper, for sewage sludge, for municipal waste compost and for fly ash. A third way of indication is by organisms accumulating pollutants. For some heavy metals (Cd, Zn), earthworms are very efficient accumulators. More research is needed especially on the specific relation between biological responses and abiotic soil characteristics.     

Dose-time-response functions for toxic chemicals

In many situations, the effect of a toxic chemical on a biological system depends on both the intensity and the duration of exposure. The dependence on the time dimension can be the expression of a range of processes including the physical accumulation of toxic chemicals or their metabolites and the functional accumulation of damage. Measures and functions that have been used to describe this dependence are reviewed.Some of these functions are compared through a case study of the neurotoxicity of methylmercury. Use is made of data that indicates a dependency between the blood concentration at which monkeys were exposed and the length of time before damage was detected. Several exposure functions are fitted to these data and their appropriateness is compared. Using the most appropriate function, an exposure-response relationship is developed using probit analysis. An alternative data analysis procedure is also investigated. The apparent threshold after a 100 day exposure is estimated to be greater by a factor of 3–5 compared to the threshold for chronic exposure. Applying this factor to man, the blood concentration threshold for chronic exposure is estimated to be 40–170 ppb, a finding consistent with recent reports of neurological damage in humans exposed below the generally accepted threshold.     

Excrement from Heron colonies for environmental assessment of toxic elements

Excrement cast from Great Blue Heron nests was collected during the nesting period of 1978 from four colonies in Washington and Idaho. Cheesecloth strips placed on the ground beneath the nests served as excrement collecting devices. Chemical analysis for lead, mercury and cadmium were performed on dried samples. Lead was the most abundant trace metal found in heron debris. The Idaho colony at Lake Chatcolet had an average concentration of 46 ppm in the beneath-nest samples and 6 ppm in control samples. A heron colony near Tacoma, Washington had beneath-nest samples averaging 28 ppm and control samples averaging 20 ppm. Two colonies located in the interior region of Washington had substantially lower concentrations of lead. The difference observed between colonies was attributed to their associations with a polluted watershed (Chatcolet colony) an interstate highway (Tacoma colony) and an unpopulated largely agricultural area (inland Washington).