Methods for integrated assessment

Integrated assessment is an approach that seeks to involve all disciplines in policy-relevant assessment. The process aims to encompass environmental science, technology and policy problems. The aim is to establish an overview of the environmental issue in question that attempts to avoid the mistakes of the past associated with narrow, one-sided or unidimensional approaches. A number of methods are available for such assessments. However, they are also subject to a number of limitations, difficulties and dilemmas. Integrated methods are inherently complicated and the tradition is that only experts are involved. New more inclusionary procedures have to be devised in order to involve all stakeholders. They have to be involved in the framing of the issue and in the value judgements associated with the approach. The dilemmas cannot be solved by integrated approaches, but they can be mitigated via proper identification, analysis and evaluation of the gains and losses involved. In structuring the analysis the existence of ignorance has to be accounted for and communicated to the managers and the political decision makers. The ignorance/uncertainty aspects can be partially accommodated for via an intensification of feasible monitoring and research so as to minimise the risks of unpleasant surprises. Electronic Publication     

Metal contents of marine turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas; Lepidochelys olivacea) from the tropical eastern pacific and the implications for human health

Concentrations of eight elements were measured in Chelonia mydas and Lepidochelys olivacea eggs collected along the Pacific coast of Panama. Manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and mercury (Hg) concentrations were similar to previous reports of these species from around the world, while lead (Pb) was lower than previous reports. Cd posed the highest health risk to people who regularly eat the eggs, with average consumption rates leading to target hazard quotients (THQ) of up to 0.35 ± 0.15. Our conclusions indicate that current turtle egg consumption in isolated, coastal Pacific communities may pose a health concern for young children, and that youth and young adults should limit their consumption of turtle eggs to reduce their total intake of nonessential metals.     

The ecology of the red fox (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpes vulpes</Emphasis> L.) in the middle Lena River basin

The population of foxes in the central regions of Yakutia has grown by a factor of four to five during the period from 2000 to 2011–2012, following an increase in the abundance of voles from the genus Microtus. A total of 130 carcasses of foxes taken in 2007–2012 have been examined. Age- and sex-related variation in morphological features has been described. The demographic structure of the population has been studied by estimating animal age from annual layers in the recording structures. Changes in female fertility and involvement in reproduction depending on age and feeding conditions have been analyzed. Changes in the composition of fox diet caused by long-term population depression in the mountain hare and their effect on the dynamics of fox abundance have been revealed. Age- and sex-related characteristics of the condition factor in foxes and sex-related differences in their dietary preferences have been demonstrated.     

Epigenetic variation in the American mink, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neovison vison</Emphasis>, from eastern Europe: A search for factors of polymorphism

A comparative analysis of epigenetic variation has been performed in nine European populations and population groups of the American mink. It has been shown that differentiation of samples in nonmetric characters is due mainly to endogenous processes that have occurred in introduced populations in the course of colonization of new territory by the invasive species. Environmental factors have played a secondary role, with the influence of the geographic (latitudinal) origin of a given sample being considerable and stronger than that of macroclimatic factors.     

A method for ranking components importance in presence of epistemic uncertainties

Importance Measures (IMs) are used to rank the contributions of components or basic events to the system performance, e.g. its reliability or risk. Most times, IMs are calculated without due account of the uncertainties in the model of the behavior of the system. The objective of this work is to investigate how uncertainties can influence IMs and to develop a method for giving them due account in the corresponding ranking of the components or basic events. The uncertainties considered in this work affect the model parameters values and are assumed to be described by probability density functions. The method for ranking the contributors to the system performance measure is applied to the auxiliary feedwater system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor.     

Reusing fly ash in glass fibre reinforced cement: a new generation of high-quality GRC composites

New composite materials based on an alkali-resistant glass-fibre reinforced cement (AR-GRC) system are being developed by using fly ash (FA) produced at coal thermoelectric power plants, and fluid catalytic cracking catalyst residue (FC3R) from the petrol industry as cement replacement materials. These wastes are reactive from the pozzolanic viewpoint, and modify the nature and the microstructure of the cement matrix when a part of the Portland cement is replaced in the formulation of GRC. Several microstructural and mechanical aspects are being studied for AR-GRC systems. The behaviour of composites exposed to ageing shows that the pozzolanic activity of the ground FA added in high amounts and its mixture with the FC3R increase the flexural strength and no evidences of strength decay are observed. Additionally, the fibres due to the high alkalinity of the cementing matrix can be deteriorated. Fibres in the control (only Portland cement) and FC3R containing composites were attacked, whereas composites with FA and their mixture with FC3R show that the fibres have not been attacked, due to the pozzolanic activity of replacing materials that reduce the calcium hydroxide content in the cementing matrix.