Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration—requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert‐opinion threat‐based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species‐specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species’ extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data‐limited species likely to be affected by global‐scale threats. Incorporación del Cambio Climático y Oceánico en Estudios de Riesgo de Extinción para 82 Especies de Coral     

Roles of Patch Characteristics,Drought Frequency,and Restoration in Long‐Term Trends of a Widespread Amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long‐term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg‐mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state‐space and linear‐regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long‐term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido     

Risk Factors for Death in the 27 March 1994 Georgia and Alabama Tornadoes

Field surveys were made one week after tornadoes killed 40 persons and injured over 300 in rural regions of Alabama and Georgia, USA, on 27 March 1994. Surveys were completed for samples of 20 persons who were killed and 31 persons who were in the paths of the tornadoes but survived to determine whether there were differences in personal characteristics, behavior or location between the two groups. Persons who died were significantly older than persons who survived, more likely to be in mobile homes or in rooms above ground with windows, less likely to be watching television before the tornado, and were aware of the approaching tornado for less time than survivors. There was no difference in gender, race, marital status, education, disability or previous experience with tornadoes between those who died and survivors.     

Biological Effects of Fine Sediment in the Lotic Environment

/ Although sedimentation is a naturally occurring phenomenon inrivers, land-use changes have resulted in an increase in anthropogenicallyinduced fine sediment deposition. Poorly managed agricultural practices,mineral extraction, and construction can result in an increase in suspendedsolids and sedimentation in rivers and streams, leading to a decline inhabitat quality. The nature and origins of fine sediments in the loticenvironment are reviewed in relation to channel and nonchannel sources andthe impact of human activity. Fine sediment transport and deposition areoutlined in relation to variations in streamflow and particle sizecharacteristics. A holistic approach to the problems associated with finesediment is outlined to aid in the identification of sediment sources,transport, and deposition processes in the river catchment. The multiplecauses and deleterious impacts associated with fine sediments on riverinehabitats, primary producers, macroinvertebrates, and fisheries are identifiedand reviewed to provide river managers with a guide to source material. Therestoration of rivers with fine sediment problems are discussed in relationto a holistic management framework to aid in the planning and undertaking ofmitigation measures within both the river channel and surrounding catchmentarea.KEY WORDS: Sedimentation; Fine sediment; Holistic approach; Ecologicalimpact; River restoration     

Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

A Landscape Approach to Biodiversity Conservation of Sacred Groves in the Western Ghats of India

Abstract:  Although sacred groves are important for conservation in India, the landscape that surrounds them has a vital influence on biodiversity within them. Research has focused on tree diversity inside these forest patches. In a coffee-growing region of the Western Ghats, however, landscape outside sacred groves is also tree covered because planters have retained native trees to provide shade for coffee plants. We examined the diversity of trees, birds, and macrofungi at 58 sites—10 forest-reserve sites, 25 sacred groves, and 23 coffee plantations— in Kodagu district. We measured landscape composition and configuration around each site with a geographic information system. To identify factors associated with diversity we constructed multivariate models by using a decision-tree technique. The conventional measures of landscape fragmentation such as patch size did not influence species richness. Distance of sacred groves from the forest reserve had a weak influence. The measures of landscape structure (e.g., tree cover in the surroundings) and stand structure (e.g., variability in canopy height) contributed to the variation in species richness explained by multivariate models. We suggest that biodiversity present within sacred groves has been influenced by native tree cover in the surrounding landscape. To conserve this biodiversity the integrity of the tree-covered landscape matrix will need to be conserved.     

Oil: 'Market Forces'

The traditional concept of price dependence on supply and demand does not apply fully to the oil industry where price and supply is often the result of agreements between the major oil companies and the major suppliers. As a result, prices respond very slowly to changes in demand and supply. Government intervention for political reasons or for reasons of national security acts to further lessen the effect of market forces. In the absence of true market forces some government intervention may be justified.
Le concept traditionnel qui stipule que les prix sont fonction de l'offre et de la demande ne s'applique pas dans son entier à l'industrie pétrolière où les prix et l'approvisionnement sont souvent le résultat d'accords entre les grandes compagnies pétroliéres et les principaux fournisseurs. En conséquence, les prix s'adaptent très lentement aux changements enregistrés dans l'offre et la demande. L'intervention du gouvernement pour des raisons politiques ou de sécurité nationale a pour effet de diminuer encore davantage la portée des forces du marché. En l'absence de forces de marché effectives, une intervention gouvernementale limitée peut se justifier.
El concepto tradicional de la fijación de precios por el juego de la oferta y la demanda no es completamente aplicable a la indùstria del petróleo donde el precio es mas bien consecuencia de los acuerdos entre los grandes productores y consumidores de petróleo. Como resultado, los precios responden muy lentamente a los cambios en la oferta y demanda. La intervención del gobierno por razones poliíticas o de seguridad nacional debilita aun más las fuerzas del mercado. En ausencia de estas fuerzas, alguna forma de intervención gubernamental es justificable.