WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND DROUGHT FORECASTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.     

HYDROLOGY OF A DRAINED FORESTED POCOSIN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: In order to assess the effects. of silvicultural and drainage practices on water quality it is necessary to understand their impacts on hydrology. The hydrology of a 340 ha artificially drained forested watershed in eastern North Carolina was studied for a five-year period (1988–92). Effects of soils, beds and changes in vegetation on water table depth, evapotranspiration (ET) and drainage outflows were analyzed. Total annual outflows from the watershed varied from 29 percent of the rainfall during the driest year (1990) when mostly mature trees were present to as much as 53 percent during a year of normal rainfall (1992) after about a third of the trees were harvested. Annual ET from the watershed, calculated as the difference between annual rainfall and outflow, varied from 76 percent of the calculated potential ET for a dry year to as much as 99 percent for a wet year. Average estimated ET was 58 percent of rainfall for the five-year period. Flow rates per unit area were consistently higher from a smaller harvested block (Block B - 82 ha) of the watershed than from the watershed as a whole. This is likely due to time lags, as drainage water flows through the ditch-canal network in the watershed, and to timber harvesting of the smaller gaged block.     

Decomposition and plant-available nitrogen in biosolids: laboratory studies,field studies,and computer simulation

This research combines laboratory and field studies with computer simulation to characterize the amount of plant-available nitrogen (PAN) released when municipal biosolids are land-applied to agronomic crops. In the laboratory studies, biosolids were incubated in or on soil from the land application sites. Mean biosolids total C, organic N, and C to N ratio were 292 g kg(-1), 41.7 g kg(-1), and 7.5, respectively. Based on CO2 evolution at 25 degrees C and optimum soil moisture, 27 of the 37 biosolids-soil combinations had two decomposition phases. The mean rapid and slow fraction rate constants were 0.021 and 0.0015 d(-1), respectively, and the rapid fraction contained 23% of the total C assuming sequential decomposition. Where only one decomposition phase existed, the mean first order rate constant was 0.0046 d(-1). The mean rate constant for biosolids stored in lagoons for an extended time was 0.00097 d(-1). The only treatment process that was related to biosolids treatment was stabilization by storage in a lagoon. Biosolids addition rates (dry basis) ranged from 1.3 to 33.8 Mg ha(-1) with a mean value of 10.6 Mg ha(-1). A relationship between fertilizer N rate and crop response was used to estimate observed PAN at each site. Mean observed PAN during the growing season was 18.9 kg N Mg(-1) or 37% of the biosolids total N. Observed PAN was linearly related to biosolids total N. Predicted PAN using the computer model Decomposition, actual growing-season weather, actual analytical data, and laboratory decomposition kinetics compared well with observed PAN. The mean computer model prediction of growing-season PAN was 19.2 kg N Mg(-1) and the slope of the regression between predicted and observed PAN was not significantly different from unity. Predicted PAN obtained using mean decomposition kinetics was related to predicted PAN using actual decomposition kinetics suggesting that mean rate constants, actual weather, and actual analytical data could be used in estimation of PAN. There was a linear relationship between predicted N mineralization for the growing season and for the first year. For this study, the mean values for the growing season and year were 27 and 37% of the organic N, respectively.     

环境对坦桑尼亚类珊瑚虫分布的影响

本文研究了有关坦桑尼亚珊瑚礁环境不同方面的类珊瑚虫(刺胞动物门,珊瑚虫纲)的分布和丰度.通过设线截距横切和点取标技术,调查了受到人类不同骚扰程度的5种礁.     

Prenatal diagnosis of xeroderma pigmentosum and cockayne syndrome

In a study of fetal cells from a series of 12 pregnancies in ten families at risk for the ultraviolet light-sensitive, DNA repair-deficient diseases xeroderma pigmentosum (XP) and Cockayne syndrome (CS), we detected one XP and two CS homozygote fetuses. The diagnoses were confirmed by analysis of fetal skin fibroblasts or second amniotic samples after termination of the pregnancies. The measurement of ultraviolet light sensitivity and DNA repair depended on properties common to the seven excision repair-deficient XP complementation groups (A-G) and the two CS complementation groups (A, B). No XP variant families were included in the study, because the variant requires different testing techniques. Reliable and rapid diagnosis proved possible in all but one of the 12 pregnancies, supporting the use of these methods until the spectrum of mutations in the various XP and CS genes of the U. S. population is fully characterized and a DNA sequence-based diagnostic procedure becomes available.     

Persistently highest risk areas for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome: potential sites for refugia.

Interannual variation in the number of cases of human disease caused by hantaviruses in North America has been hypothesized to reflect environmental changes that influence rodent reservoir populations. This hypothesis postulates that when cases are rare reservoir populations are geographically restricted in patches of suitable habitat. Identifying these sites, which is needed to test the hypothesis, has proven to be a challenge. Satellite imagery of the U.S. Southwest has shown associations among the likelihood of human hantaviral disease and increases in the rodent populations, as well as increased prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV) in rodent populations. In this study we characterize local areas that had environmental signatures that persisted as predicted highest risk sites for human disease through much of the 1990s. These areas represent a small percentage (0.3%) of the region. Exploratory analyses indicate that these areas were not randomly distributed, but were associated with certain landscape characteristics. Characteristics of elevation, slope, aspect, and land cover were associated with persistent high risk. Using multivariate Poisson regression to control for confounding effects, sites with deciduous- or mixed-forest land cover on moderate to steep slopes (>5 degrees) above 2130 m elevation were associated with increasing numbers of years at highest risk. These are candidate locations for refugia. Sites associated with cleared ground or shrubland were less often associated with high risk compared to reference conditions. The seasonal patterns of vegetation growth in persistently high-risk areas were compared to matched locations using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) during a time of a severe drought in the region from 2002 to 2004. Despite the drought and regardless of land cover, the NDVI in persistently highest risk areas had an early onset, with significantly higher levels of green vegetation that lasted longer than at comparable sites. These observations identify locations that can be monitored for the abundance of P. maniculatus and presence of SNV. If these sites are refugia, we predict they will be occupied by infected deer mice when other monitored sites are unoccupied.     

Alternative Non-market Value-Elicitation Methods: Are the Underlying Preferences the Same?

We advocate a more formal structural approach for comparing WTP for non-market or pre-test-market goods conveyed by fundamentally different preference elicitation mechanisms. Seven independent samples of respondents were asked to value the identical good. Elicitation methods include one actual purchase and six widely used hypothetical choice formats. Using a common underlying indirect utility function (and stochastic structure) allows data for different elicitation methods to be used independently, compared pair-wise (as in much of the earlier literature) or pooled across all samples in one unified model with heteroscedasticity across elicitation methods. Our differences in estimated WTP for the individual models are typical of earlier findings. However, pooled-data models that allow for heteroscedasticity reveal that while there are substantial differences in the amount of noise in the different samples, a common underlying systematic component of the preference structure cannot be rejected for at least four (and possibly five) of these seven elicitation methods.     

Metal diffusion properties of a Nafion-coated porous membrane in an aquatic passive sampler system

A cellulose acetate membrane, positioned in a passive sampler system, was coated with the perfluorinated polymer Nafion. Aqueous metal transport through the membrane and the Nafion film was investigated. The Nafion-coated membrane prevents the transport of metals bound to natural organic material to the receiving phase in the passive sampler, while copper associated with small synthetic ligands pass through the Nafion film. Increasing thickness of the Nafion film decreases the metal uptake rate to the receiving phase in the passive sampler and increases the response time. A decreased response time for the passive sampler would provide a better estimation of rapid changes in concentration, particularly for dynamic aquatic systems such as urban runoff. Limited biofouling protection with the Nafion coating was demonstrated by growth inhibition of natural periphyton communities on glass surfaces.