Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down

Ecosystems close to a critical threshold lose resilience, in the sense that perturbations can more easily push them into an alternative state. Recently, it has been proposed that such loss of resilience may be detected from elevated autocorrelation and variance in the fluctuations of the state of an ecosystem due to critical slowing down; the underlying generic phenomenon that occurs at critical thresholds. Here we explore the robustness of autocorrelation and variance as indicators of imminent critical transitions. We show both analytically and in simulations that variance may sometimes decrease close to a transition. This can happen when environmental factors fluctuate stochastically and the ecosystem becomes less sensitive to these factors near the threshold, or when critical slowing down reduces the ecosystem's capacity to follow high-frequency fluctuations in the environment. In addition, when available data is limited, variance can be systematically underestimated due to the prevalence of low frequencies close to a transition. By contrast, autocorrelation always increases toward critical transitions in our analyses. To exemplify this point, we provide cases of rising autocorrelation and increasing or decreasing variance in time series prior to past climate transitions.     

Influence of oceanic factors on long-distance movements of loggerhead sea turtles displaced in the southwest Indian Ocean

The routes of five satellite-tracked loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), subjected to an experimental translocation away from their usual migratory routes, have been analysed in relation to the concurrent oceanographic conditions. Remote sensing data on sea surface temperature and height anomalies, as well as trajectories of surface drifters were used, to get simultaneous information on the currents encountered by the turtles during their long-range oceanic movements. Turtles mostly turned out to move in the same direction as the main currents, and their routes were often influenced by circulation features they encountered. A comparison between turtle ground speeds with that of drifters shows that in several instances, the turtles did not drift passively with the currents but contributed actively to the overall movement. Two turtles embarked on an oceanic crossing, probably induced by seasonal changes in surface temperatures, a crossing that was largely determined by the main currents existing in the area.     

Integrating major accidents hazard into occupational risk assessment: An index approach

Major Accident Hazard (MAH) and Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) are two separated topics in both industrial practice and legislation; recently, interest is increasing toward an integrated risk assessment mainly forced by the tendency to a more efficient safety management system. The present study proposes a semi-quantitative approach to integrate MAH in OSH risk assessment. The two risk types are characterized by opposite features: the OSH analysis is usually task-based and focused on job profiles, while the MAH analysis is space-based and focused on plant characteristics. The basic idea of the proposed approach is to merge spatial information and job profile features in order to improve OSH assessment; thus, a risk index derived by the recent standard ISO 12100 (2010) has been adapted. In detail, the proposed index combines exposure times of each worker at each plant unit – derived from the OSH analysis – with damage areas derived from MAH analysis allowing a quantitative assessment of the MAH risk level for each individual job profile. The model has been tested in a large petrochemical plant; several hypotheses have been developed in order to validate the model. Results have showed the potentiality of the proposed approach in providing a common and coherent representation of both MAH and OSH risks, according to job profiles and plant units.     

Re-orientation in clock-shifted homing pigeons subjected to a magnetic disturbance: a study with GPS data loggers

Some authors have proposed that homing pigeons are able to correct the error in orientation following a phase-shift treatment by using the magnetic compass reference. They reported that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets display a greater deflection compared to magnetically unmanipulated clock-shifted birds. However, this hypothesis tested by recording pigeons’ vanishing bearings has led to contradictory results. The present study reports pigeons’ tracks recorded with a GPS and shows that clock-shifted pigeons bearing magnets displayed a greater deviation through the whole route compared to the magnetically unmanipulated shifted pigeons. Moreover, the analysis of the tracks shows that the birds belonging to both experimental groups stop in coincidence with their subjective night. When re-starting their journey, the birds corrected the clock-shift induced error in orientation, but the magnetically manipulated pigeons were less efficient in doing so. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that homing pigeons released from unfamiliar location re-orient after clock shift by using the magnetic compass.     

Quantification of copepod gut content by differential length amplification quantitative PCR (dla-qPCR)

Quantification of feeding rates and selectivity of zooplankton is vital for understanding the mechanisms structuring marine ecosystems. However, methodological limitations have made many of these studies difficult. Recently, molecular based methods have demonstrated that DNA from prey species can be used to identify zooplankton gut contents, and further, quantitative gut content estimates by quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays targeted to the 18S rRNA gene have been used to estimate feeding rates in appendicularians and copepods. However, while standard single primer based qPCR assays were quantitative for the filter feeding appendicularian Oikopleura dioica, feeding rates were consistently underestimated in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus. In this study, we test the hypothesis that prey DNA is rapidly digested after ingestion by copepods and describe a qPCR-based assay, differential length amplification qPCR (dla-qPCR), to account for DNA digestion. The assay utilizes multiple primer sets that amplify different sized fragments of the prey 18S rRNA gene and, based on the differential amplification of these fragments, the degree of digestion is estimated and corrected for. Application of this approach to C. finmarchicus fed Rhodomonas marina significantly improved quantitative feeding estimates compared to standard qPCR. The development of dla-qPCR represents a significant advancement towards a quantitative method for assessing in situ copepod feeding rates without involving cultivation-based manipulation.     

Safer management of process changes in chemical reactors

Nowadays many chemical industries are SMEs where multi-purpose batch or semi-batch reactors are commonly used. Vent sizing for realistic runaway scenario is not an easy task for such enterprises since they have usually few resources and use multi-purpose reactors with fast process turnovers. As a consequence these batch and semi-batch reactors are usually equipped with emergency relief systems sized once forever when the reactor is designed. This can lead to a large underestimation of the vent area in case of runaway reactions occurring when processes different from the ones considered for originally sizing the vent are carried out.The approach proposed in this work aims to identify the maximum reactor load leading to safe conditions even in case of runaway phenomena to be handled with the emergency relief system already installed (or even with a smaller vent area). This approach allows avoiding the change of the emergency relief system with a larger vent area (as required every time a new more hazardous process has to be carried out on existing reactors) at the price of lower plant productivity.     

Land use and land cover (LULC) of the Republic of the Maldives: first national map and LULC change analysis using remote-sensing data

The Maldives islands in recent decades have experienced dramatic land-use change. Uninhabited islands were turned into new resort islands; evergreen tropical forests were cut, to be replaced by fields and new built-up areas. All these changes happened without a proper monitoring and urban planning strategy from the Maldivian government due to the lack of national land-use and land-cover (LULC) data. This study aimed to realize the first land-use map of the entire Maldives archipelago and to detect land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) using high-resolution satellite images and socioeconomic data. Due to the peculiar geographic and environmental features of the archipelago, the land-use map was obtained by visual interpretation and manual digitization of land-use patches. The images used, dated 2011, were obtained from Digital Globe’s WorldView 1 and WorldView 2 satellites. Nine land-use classes and 18 subclasses were identified and mapped. During a field survey, ground control points were collected to test the geographic and thematic accuracy of the land-use map. The final product’s overall accuracy was 85%. Once the accuracy of the map had been checked, LULCC maps were created using images from the early 2000s derived from Google Earth historical imagery. Post-classification comparison of the classified maps showed that growth of built-up and agricultural areas resulted in decreases in forest land and shrubland. The LULCC maps also revealed an increase in land reclamation inside lagoons near inhabited islands, resulting in environmental impacts on fragile reef habitat. The LULC map of the Republic of the Maldives produced in this study can be used by government authorities to make sustainable land-use planning decisions and to provide better management of land use and land cover.     

Seasonal variations in nickel and vanadium in Mont Blanc snow and ice dated from the 1960s and 1990s

Ni and V have been determined in snow and ice collected at a high altitude location (Col du D?me) near the summit of Mont Blanc on the French-Italian border; dated from the 1960s and 1990s. Ni and V were simultaneously determined by inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry. Measured concentrations range from 6 to 700 pg g(-1) and 4 to 1,100 pg g(-1) for Ni and V, respectively. The results show pronounced seasonal variations in the concentrations of both metals, with high concentration values in summer layers and much lower values for winter layers. These seasonal variations are linked especially with the existence of inversion layers during winter months. Ni and V concentrations in excess of the contributions from rock and soil dust (Ni(excess), V(excess)) appear to be mainly associated with anthropogenic inputs, with pronounced seasonal variations. Large variations in the V(excess)/Ni(excess) ratio are observed, with a higher ratio in summer than in winter. This shows differences in anthropogenic inputs at Col du D?me during the different parts of the year. The above ratio was compared with the corresponding ratios for oil combustion from stationary sources and the exhaust from gasoline and diesel engines. It appears that Ni and V concentrations at Col du D?me are probably the result of changing combinations of contributions from oil combustion for power generation, industrial and residential uses, on one side, and automobile and truck traffic, on the other side, with possibly a significant contribution from Ni smelters in Russia during winter months.     

A soil sampling intercomparison exercise for the ALMERA network

Soil sampling and analysis for radionuclides after an accidental or routine release is a key factor for the dose calculation to members of the public, and for the establishment of possible countermeasures. The IAEA organized for selected laboratories of the ALMERA (Analytical Laboratories for the Measurement of Environmental Radioactivity) network a Soil Sampling Intercomparison Exercise (IAEA/SIE/01) with the objective of comparing soil sampling procedures used by different laboratories. The ALMERA network is a world-wide network of analytical laboratories located in IAEA member states capable of providing reliable and timely analysis of environmental samples in the event of an accidental or intentional release of radioactivity. Ten ALMERA laboratories were selected to participate in the sampling exercise. The soil sampling intercomparison exercise took place in November 2005 in an agricultural area qualified as a “reference site”, aimed at assessing the uncertainties associated with soil sampling in agricultural, semi-natural, urban and contaminated environments and suitable for performing sampling intercomparison. In this paper, the laboratories sampling performance were evaluated.     

An unconventional method for the recovery of caustic soda from spent Al-rich pickling solutions

This work presents an unconventional procedure for the recovery of spent Al-rich caustic soda solutions from the pickling of dies for the production of aluminium extrusions. Caustic soda was regenerated at roughly 70%, by precipitating aluminate, after addition of a silica source, in the form of zeolite A, a microporous material that is widely used in many technological sectors. It was shown that the process is reliable and can be repeated for several cycles, provided the concentration of the caustic soda solution is suitably restored. The by-product obtained, zeolite A, proved to be a high-grade material with performance as a cation exchanger and physical sorbent that is certainly comparable to that reported in literature (e.g., cation exchange capacity equal to 5.14 meq g(-1) vs. 5.48 meq g(-1) and water vapour adsorption capacity of 26.5% vs. 27.6% at 16 torr and 298 K). The economics of the process, although not examined yet, would appear generally favourable, considering that zeolite A is a valuable by-product which widely covers the costs for the recovery of the spent solutions. There are, therefore, significant prospects for the use of zeolite A, particularly as a builder in detergent formulation.