Percentile estimation using variable censored data

Much progress has been made in recent years to address the estimation of summary statistics, using data that are subject to censoring of results that fall below the limit of detection (LOD) for the measuring instrument. Truncated data methods (e.g., Tobit regression) and multiple-imputation are two approaches for analyzing data results that are below the LOD. To apply these methods requires an assumption about the underlying distribution of the data. Because the log-normal distribution has been shown to fit many data sets obtained from environmental measurements, the common practice is to assume that measurements of environmental factors can be described by log-normal distributions. This article describes methods for obtaining estimates of percentiles and their associated confidence intervals when the results are log-normal and a fraction of the results are below the LOD. We present limited simulations to demonstrate the bias of the proposed estimates and the coverage probability of their associated confidence intervals. Estimation methods are used to generate summary statistics for 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro dibenzo-p-dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) using data from a 2001 background exposure study in which PCDDs/PCDFs/cPCBs in human blood serum were measured in a Louisiana population. Because the congener measurements used in this study were subject to variable LODs, we also present simulation results to demonstrate the effect of variable LODs on the multiple-imputation process.     

Using polymer mats to biodegrade atrazine in groundwater: laboratory column experiments

Large-scale column experiments were undertaken to evaluate the potential of in situ polymer mats to deliver oxygen into groundwater to induce biodegradation of the pesticides atrazine, terbutryn and fenamiphos contaminating groundwater in Perth, Western Australia. The polymer mats, composed of woven silicone (dimethylsiloxane) tubes and purged with air, were installed in 2-m-long flow-through soil columns. The polymer mats proved efficient in delivering dissolved oxygen to anaerobic groundwater. Dissolved oxygen concentrations increased from <0.2 mg l(-1) to approximately 4 mg l(-1). Degradation rates of atrazine in oxygenated groundwater were relatively high with a zero-order rate of 240-380 microg l(-1) or a first-order half-life of 0.35 days. Amendment with an additional carbon source showed no significant improvement in biodegradation rates, suggesting that organic carbon was not limiting biodegradation. Atrazine degradation rates estimated in the column experiments were similar to rates determined in laboratory culture experiments, using pure cultures of atrazine-mineralising bacteria. No significant degradation of terbutryn or fenamiphos was observed under the experimental conditions within the time frames of the study. Results from these experiments indicate that remediation of atrazine in a contaminated aquifer may be achievable by delivery of oxygen using an in situ polymer mat system.     

Seveso Women's Health Study: a study of the effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin on reproductive health

Although reproductive effects of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) exposure have been reported in numerous investigations of animals, studies of this association in humans are limited. In 1976, an explosion in Seveso, Italy exposed the surrounding population to among the highest levels of TCDD recorded in humans. The relatively pure exposure to TCDD and the ability to quantify individual level TCDD exposure from sera collected in 1976 for the Seveso cohort affords a unique opportunity to evaluate the potential dose-response relationship between TCDD exposure and a spectrum of reproductive endpoints. The Seveso Women's Health Study (SWHS) is the first comprehensive study of the reproductive health of a human population exposed to TCDD. The primary objectives of the study are to investigate the relationship of TCDD and the following endpoints: (1) endometriosis; (2) menstrual cycle characteristics; (3) age at menarche; (4) birth outcomes of pregnancies conceived after 1976; (5) time to conception and clinical infertility; and (6) age at menopause. Included in the SWHS cohort are women who were 0-40 yr old in 1976, who have adequate stored sera collected between 1976 and 1980, and who resided in Zones A or B at the time of the accident. All women were interviewed extensively about their reproductive and pregnancy history and had a blood draw. For an eligible subset of women, a pelvic exam and transvaginal ultrasound were conducted and a menstrual diary was completed. More than 95% of the women were located 20 yr after the accident and roughly 80% of the cohort agreed to participate. Data collection was completed in July 1998, serum TCDD analysis of samples for analysis of endometriosis as a nested case-control study was completed in October 1998, and statistical analysis of these data should be completed in early 1999. Serum samples are now being analyzed in order to relate TCDD levels with the remaining reproductive outcomes.     

Background levels of non-ortho-substituted (coplanar) polychlorinated biphenyls in human serum of Missouri residents

This study characterizes the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) congeners PCB 77, PCB 81, PCB 126, and PCB 169, in a group of 150 men and women with no documented exposure to PCBs. Its purpose is to provide current referent levels of coplanar PCBs in Missouri residents and to compare those levels to levels reported in the literature from the United States and other countries. Although this study used an extensive questionnaire assessing potential sources of exposure, no positive relations were found between these exposure sources and participants' PCB levels. The PCB levels for the four congeners measured were lower than any reported in the literature. PCBs 126 and 169 are only two of the dioxin-like congeners; however, their contribution makes up 11% of the total TEQ. Age was significantly related to PCB 126 and PCB 169. For every one-year increase in age, both PCB congeners increased by approximately 0.4 parts per trillion (ppt). There was no gender difference for PCB 126; however, PCB 169 levels were 3 ppt higher in males than females.     

Effects of dietary zinc supplementation on hen performance, ammonia volatilization, and nitrogen retention in manure

This investigation was undertaken to evaluate the effects of dietary ZnSO4 supplementation on ammonia volatilization and nitrogen retention in hen manure. One hundred twenty, 45-wk-old commercial Leghorn laying hens were sequentially fed diets with 1000, 2000, and 3000 ppm Zn as ZnSO4 (Zn-1000, Zn-2000, and Zn-3000), then followed by two control dietary periods with 114 ppm Zn (Control-1 and Control-2) for a total of five consecutive eight-day experiment periods, respectively. When hens were fed the 1000 and 2000 ppm Zn treatment diets, room ammonia levels were significantly reduced compared to the control diets. Dietary Zn treatments reduced the decomposition of uric acid, resulting in an increase in manure total-N retention compared to the control fed birds. The 1000 ppm Zn supplement had no adverse effects on hen body weight, feed consumption, egg production, egg weight, albumen height, or shell thickness. However, hens fed the diet containing 3000 ppm Zn had significantly depressed body weight, feed consumption, egg production, egg weight, and shell thickness. Zinc levels of egg contents increased linearly as dietary Zn levels increased. These levels in eggs would not be a problem for human consumption because these are much less than the daily Zn recommended dietary allowance. Although land application of such manure will not cause environmental problems or crop toxicity, proper monitoring of soil and crop Zn levels and effective nutrient management planning would be well advised.     

Special section: advancing the role of cities in climate governance – promise,limits, politics

This special issue contributes to scholarly debates about the role of cities in global climate governance, reflecting on the promise, limits, and politics of cities as agents of change. It takes an empirically-informed approach drawing on multiple diverse geographical and political contexts. Overall, the special issue aims to stimulate reflection and debate about where understanding and practice needs improvement to advance the role of cities in global climate governance. Key questions that are addressed in the special issue include: To what extent do real world experiences confirm or disconfirm the high expectations of cities as agents and sites of change in addressing global climate change as expressed in urban climate governance literature? In what ways do internal political dynamics of cities enable or constrain urban climate governance? How is climate governance in cities enabled and constrained by interactions with broader governance levels? In what ways can climate governance in cities be advanced through critical attention to the previous issues?     

Federal Decentralization and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Reservoir Reallocation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Reservoir operations must respond to changing conditions, such as climate, water demand, regulations, and sedimentation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) can reallocate reservoir storage to respond to such changes. We assembled and analyzed a database of reservoir reallocations implemented and proposed by the Corps. While only a small portion of total reservoir storage nationwide has been reallocated, there are substantial differences in reallocation frequency and magnitude across the nation: some Corps Districts and Divisions use reallocation while others do not, relying more on discretion and small‐scale adaptation of operations. This difference illustrates how water resource agencies like the Corps decentralize management decisions to allow responding to disparate conditions. Decentralized decision‐making provides a responsive approach to water management, while centralized and hierarchical decision‐making is a slower, more deliberative approach. Decentralized decision‐making may lead to the accumulation of short‐term, local decisions over time to the point that the system is managed differently than anticipated. Reallocation, which is a form of planned adaptive management, can be accommodating of multiple competing demands and different stakeholders, yet expensive and less temporally responsive. The challenge for any large water resource management agency is to balance between local‐level, responsive discretion vs. centralized, planned decision‐making.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the serum of US Air Force veterans in 2002

We measured levels of PCDDs, PCDFs, non-ortho, and mono-ortho substituted PCBs in 106 US Air Force Vietnam veterans, participants of the Air Force Health Study (AFHS) who attended the final medical examination in 2002. Twelve veterans were Ranch Hands involved in aerial spraying of herbicides in Vietnam (1962-1971), and 94 were Comparisons who flew transport missions in Southeast Asia (SEA) during the same time period. These veterans had no previous 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) measurement because they had not attended any of the previous AFHS examinations, or their previous measurements were missing or not valid. The mean TCDD levels in 2002 were 1.7 pg/g lipid in Comparisons and 5.5 pg/g lipid in Ranch Hands. The mean PCDD toxic equivalent - TEQ (1997) in Comparisons was 12.6 pg/g lipid, 5.4 pg/g lipid for PCDFs, 5.2 pg/g lipid for non-ortho PCBs, and 9.4 pg/g lipid for mono-ortho PCBs, with a total mean TEQ (1997) of 32.6 pg/g lipid. Corresponding mean TEQs in Ranch Hands were 15.5 pg/g lipid for PCDDs, 4.6 pg/g lipid for PCDFs, 2.2 pg/g lipid for non-ortho PCBs, and 9.3 pg/g lipid for mono-ortho PCBs, yielding the total mean TEQ (1997) of 31.6pg/g lipid. Using the re-evaluated 2005 WHO TEFs, the total mean TEQs (2005) decreased by about 28% in both Comparisons and Ranch Hands, to 23.6 pg/g lipid and 22.8 pg/g lipid, respectively. This was mainly due to changes of TEFs for the group of mono-ortho PCBs, which decreased the mono-ortho PCBs TEQs by almost 90% in both Ranch Hands and Comparisons.     

Phosphorus losses through agricultural tile drainage in Nova Scotia, Canada

Tile drainage water from agricultural fields commonly exceeds environmental guidelines for phosphorus (P) in rivers and streams. The loss of P through artificial drainage is spatially and temporally variable, and is related to local factors. This study characterizes variability in total P (TP) and soluble reactive P (SRP) concentrations in weekly drainage samples from 39 agricultural fields in Nova Scotia, Canada, from April 2002 through December 2003. We examined connections between P concentrations and the factors: (i) soil texture; (ii) discharge flow rate; (iii) soil test P (STP); (iv) manure type; and (v) crop cover. Generally, variability between fields and samples was great, and fields with standard deviations exceeding the mean for TP, SRP, and flow rate were 71, 54, and 79%, respectively. It was evident that poultry and swine manure contributed to high STPs, and to constantly high TP concentrations with high proportions of SRP. Concentrations varied from week to week, and particularly in April, May, October, and November when the greatest TP, SRP, and flow rate averages were measured. Mean TP concentrations exceed the USEPA (1994) TP guideline of 0.10 mg L(-1) at 82% of the fields, and periodically concentrations more than 10 times, and occasionally more than 50 times higher than the guideline were found. The proportion of SRP in TP had a tendency to be higher when TP levels were high in coarse textured soils. In Nova Scotia, dairy manure is most often applied on permanent cover crops, which did not show as much P concentration variability as crop rotations. Daily or hourly observation of short-term increases in P concentrations related to the described factors would help to characterize the changes in P concentrations observed during frequent heavy drainage flow events.     

An Analysis of the Yearly Changes in Sulfur Concentrations at Various National Parks in the United States, 1980-1996

ABSTRACT

An apparent increasing trend in the summer concentrations of particulate sulfur at Shenandoah (for the time period 1982-1995) and at Great Smoky Mountains (for the time period 1984-1995) has been pointed out by some researchers. Others have suggested that these increasing trends may be an analytical artifact resulting from the switch from the Stacked Filter Units (SFU) measurement system to the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) measurement system that occurred during the winter of 1987. To obtain a better understanding of the effect of the protocol change, we investigate the changes in the seasonal averages of sulfur concentrations for successive pairs of years for the period 1980-1996 for about 20 national park sites in the United States. For the period 1980-1987, we use sulfur data from the old (SFU) database and for the period 1988-1996, we use the IMPROVE database. Changes from one year to the next similar to that between 1987 and 1988 occurred during other years and seasons suggesting that chance causes alone could perhaps explain it, the degree to which chance could have caused the changes was measured using the permutation test for matched. At the very least, additional information such as side by side readings using SFU and IMPROVE measurement methods, may be needed to better understand any systematic effect in the sulfur measurements that may be ascribable to the protocol change.