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391.
Analysis of air pollution data at a mixed source location using boosted regression trees 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
David C. Carslaw Paul J. Taylor 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2009,43(22-23):3563-3570
This paper explores the use of boosted regression trees to draw inferences concerning the source characteristics at a location of high source complexity. Models are developed for hourly concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOX) close to a large international airport. Model development is discussed and methods to quantify model uncertainties developed. It is shown that good explanatory models can be developed and further, allowing for interactions between model variables significantly improves the model fits compared with non-interacting models. Methods are used to determine which variables exert most influence over predicted concentrations and to explore the NOX dependency for each. Model predictions are used to estimate aircraft take-off contributions to total concentrations of NOX and determine how these predictions are affected by annual variations in meteorological conditions and runway use patterns. Furthermore, the results relating to the aircraft contributions to total NOX concentration are compared with those from a more detailed independent field campaign. Finally, we find empirical evidence that plumes from larger aircraft disperse more rapidly from the point of release compared with smaller aircraft. The reasons for this behaviour and the implications are discussed. 相似文献
392.
Cody Livingston Paul Rieger Arthur Winer 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2009,43(21):3326-3333
We used Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) to measure tailpipe ammonia emissions from a representative fleet of 41 light and medium-duty vehicles recruited in the California South Coast Air Basin. A total of 121 chassis dynamometer emissions tests were conducted on these vehicles and the test results were examined to determine the effects of several key variables on ammonia emissions. Variables included vehicle type, driving cycle, emissions technology, ammonia precursor emissions (i.e. CO and NOx) and odometer readings/model year as a proxy for catalyst age. The mean ammonia emissions factor was 46 mg km?1 (σ = 48 mg km?1) for the vehicle fleet. Average emission factors for specific vehicle groups are also reported in this study. Results of this study suggest vehicles with the highest ammonia emission rates possess the following characteristics: medium-duty vehicles, older emissions technologies, mid-range odometer readings, and higher CO emissions. In addition, vehicles subjected to aggressive driving conditions are likely to be higher ammonia emitters. Since the vehicles we studied were representative of recent model year vehicles and technologies in urban airsheds, the results of our study will be useful for developing ammonia emissions inventories in Los Angeles and other urban areas where California-certified vehicles are driven. However, efforts should also be made to continue emissions testing on in-use vehicles to ensure greater confidence in the ammonia emission factors reported here. 相似文献
393.
The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system. 相似文献
394.
There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation
and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an
issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority
for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against
the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the
synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between
the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues
are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost
projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing
methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty
is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes
mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda
in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation
and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the
sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring. 相似文献
395.
The fate and transport processes of a toxic chemical such as atrazine, an herbicide, in a reservoir are significantly influenced
by hydrodynamic regimes of the reservoir. The two-dimensional (2D) laterally-integrated hydrodynamics and mass transport model,
CE-QUAL-W2, was enhanced by incorporating a submodel for toxic contaminants and applied to Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa. The
submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions
of a toxic chemical. The simulation results from the enhanced 2D reservoir model were validated by measured temperatures and
atrazine concentrations in the reservoir. Although a strong thermal stratification was not identified from both observed and
predicted water temperatures, the spatial variation of atrazine concentrations was largely affected by seasonal flow circulation
patterns in the reservoir. In particular, the results showed the effect of flow circulation on spatial distribution of atrazine
during summer months as the river flow formed an underflow within the reservoir and resulted in greater concentrations near
the surface of the reservoir. Atrazine concentrations in the reservoir peaked around the end of May and early June. A good
agreement between predicted and observed times and magnitudes of peak concentrations was obtained. The use of time-variable
decay rates of atrazine led to more accurate prediction of atrazine concentrations, while the use of a constant half-life
(60 days) over the entire period resulted in a 40% overestimation of peak concentrations. The results provide a better understanding
of the fate and transport of atrazine in the reservoir and information useful in the development of reservoir operation strategies
with respect to timing, amount, and depth of withdrawal. 相似文献
396.
Understanding how setting attributes influence the nature of the visitor experience is crucial to effective recreation management.
Highly influential attributes are useful indicators to monitor within a planning framework, such as Limits of Acceptable Change.
This study sought to identify the setting attributes perceived to have the most profound effect on the ability to have “a
real wilderness experience” and to assess the degree to which attribute importance varied with situational context and visitor
characteristics. To this end, exiting hikers were surveyed at moderate and very high use trailheads in Alpine Lakes Wilderness,
WA (USA), and Three Sisters Wilderness, OR (USA). They were asked about the degree to which encountering varying levels of
different setting attributes would add to or detract from their experience. Attributes with the largest range of effect on
experience, based on evaluations of different levels, were considered most important. The most influential attributes were
litter and several types of campsite interaction—people walking through camp and number of other groups camping close by.
The perceived importance of setting attributes did not vary much between wilderness locations with substantially different
use levels, suggesting that conclusions are robust and generalizable across wilderness areas. There also was little difference
in the perceptions of day and overnight visitors. In contrast, we found substantial variation in the perceived importance
of setting attributes with variation in wilderness experience, knowledge, attachment, and motivation. Our results validate
the emphasis of many wilderness management plans on indicators of social interaction, such as number of encounters. 相似文献
397.
The Effect of Water Harvesting Techniques on Runoff,Sedimentation, and Soil Properties 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study addressed the hydrological processes of runoff and sedimentation, soil moisture content, and properties under the
effect of different water harvesting techniques (treatments). The study was conducted at three sites, representing environmental
condition gradients, located in the southern part of the West Bank. For each treatment, the study evaluated soil chemical
and physical properties, soil moisture at 30 cm depth, surface runoff and sedimentation at each site. Results showed that
runoff is reduced by 65–85% and sedimentation by 58–69% in stone terraces and semi-circle bunds compared to the control at
the semi-humid site. In addition, stone terraces and contour ridges significantly reduced the amount of total runoff by 80%
and 73%, respectively, at the arid site. Soil moisture content was significantly increased by water harvesting techniques
compared to the control in all treatments at the three study sites. In addition, the difference between the control and the
water harvesting structures were higher in the arid and semi-arid areas than in the semi-humid area. Soil and water conservation,
via utilization of water harvesting structures, is an effective principle for reducing the negative impact of high runoff
intensity and subsequently increasing soil moisture storage from rainfall. Jessour systems in the valley and stone terraces
were effective in increasing soil moisture storage, prolonging the growing season for natural vegetation, and decreasing the
amount of supplemental irrigation required for growing fruit trees. 相似文献
398.
Diversity of Soil Nematodes in Areas Polluted with Heavy Metals and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Lanzhou,China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study investigated the soil nematode community structure along the Yellow River in the Lanzhou area of China, and analyzed
the impact of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on the nematode community.
Soil samples from five locations (named A–E), which were chosen for soil analysis, showed significant differences in their
heavy metal content (p < 0.01), as well as in the variety of nematodes (up to 41 genera) and families (up to 20) that were present. The different
samples also differed significantly in the total PAH content (p < 0.05), as well as the six types of PAH present. Sites A–C showed the most severe contamination with heavy metals and PAHs;
these sites had the lowest abundance of fungivores and omnivore/predators, but the proportion of bacteriovores was the highest
(p < 0.05). Site E, in contrast, showed only minor pollution with heavy metals and PAHs, and it contained the highest abundance
of plant parasites (p < 0.05). Several nematode ecological indicators were found to correlate with concentration of soil pollutants at all the
sites tested: the maturity index (MI, in addition to plant parasites), plant parasite index (PPI), ΣMI (including all the
soil nematodes), Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H′′), and Wasilewska index (WI). Disturbance to the soil environment was more severe when MI, ΣMI, and H′ values were lower. The results of the study show that the abundance and structure of the soil nematode communities in the
sampling locations were strongly influenced by levels of heavy metals and PAHs in the soil. They also show that the diversity
index H′ and the maturity index can be valuable tools for assessing the impact of pollutants on nematodes. 相似文献
399.
Frank Merry Britaldo Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Gregory Amacher Hermann Rodrigues 《Environmental management》2009,44(3):395-407
Logging has been a much maligned feature of frontier development in the Amazon. Most discussions ignore the fact that logging
can be part of a renewable, environmentally benign, and broadly equitable economic activity in these remote places. We estimate
there to be some 4.5 ± 1.35 billion m3 of commercial timber volume in the Brazilian Amazon today, of which 1.2 billion m3 is currently profitable to harvest, with a total potential stumpage value of $15.4 billion. A successful forest sector in
the Brazilian Amazon will integrate timber harvesting on private lands and on unprotected and unsettled government lands with
timber concessions on public lands. If a legal, productive, timber industry can be established outside of protected areas,
it will deliver environmental benefits in synergy with those provided by the region’s network of protected areas, the latter
of which we estimate to have an opportunity cost from lost timber revenues of $2.3 billion over 30 years. Indeed, on all land
accessible to harvesting, the timber industry could produce an average of more than 16 million m3 per year over a 30-year harvest cycle—entirely outside of current protected areas—providing $4.8 billion in returns to landowners
and generating $1.8 billion in sawnwood sales tax revenue. This level of harvest could be profitably complemented with an
additional 10% from logging concessions on National Forests. This advance, however, should be realized only through widespread
adoption of reduced impact logging techniques. 相似文献
400.
Sustainability assessment (SA) is a holistic and long-range strategic instrument capable of assisting policy-making in electing,
and deciding upon, future development priorities. The outcomes of an SA process become more relevant and strengthened when
conducted with multi-stakeholder engagement, which provides for multiple dialogues and perspectives. This was the object of
research of the SA team in the context of BioScene (Scenarios for Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation with Declining Agriculture Use in Mountain Areas in Europe), a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union 5th Framework Program, which aimed to investigate the implications
of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe, using three distinct
methodological streams: the ecological, the socio-economic, and the SA approaches. The SA approach drew on the previous two
to assess the importance for biodiversity management of different scenarios of agri-environmental change and rural policy
in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), develop causal chains, include stakeholder
views, and identify potential contributions for, or conflicts with, sustainability. This article tells how SA was used, what
sustainability meant in each study area through different objectives of sustainability considered, discusses the methods used
in SA, and the benefits arising. The SA was conducted by a team independent of any study area, who developed and oversaw the
application of the SA methodology, assisting national teams, and developing a cross-country understanding of the sustainability
of proposed scenarios in the different geographical and social contexts, and their implications for policy-making. Finally,
it reflects on the persistent challenges of interdisciplinary research, compounded by multi-cultural teams, and concludes
on the BioScene’s lessons for the further development and application of SA.
相似文献
William R. SheateEmail: |