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41.
Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
James Risbey Jeroen van der Sluijs Penny Kloprogge Jerry Ravetz Silvio Funtowicz Serafin Corral Quintana 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,10(1):63-79
Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses. 相似文献
42.
Material within the terrestrial environment is rarely homogeneously distributed, either spatially or temporally. One consequence of heterogeneity is that uncertainty is usually generated in measurements that are taken with the aim of characterising the environment. For example, a measurement of analyte concentration within soil taken from one sampling location on contaminated land can vary substantially when compared against another sample taken at effectively the same nominal location. The measurement uncertainty arising from the heterogeneity can substantially limit the reliability of the interpretations made upon environmental investigations. The sampling uncertainty usually outweighs the analytical uncertainty from the laboratory, often by a factor of 20 or more. One approach to reducing the uncertainty is to design a more suitable sampling strategy. This might be achieved by predicting the degree of heterogeneity prior to the investigation, but this is often difficult to achieve accurately. Another approach, which was investigated here, is to actually characterise the heterogeneity prior to the main investigation using rapid and inexpensive technology, such as in situ measurement techniques. In situ portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) and X-ray microprobe (XMP) techniques were employed to test the feasibility of this approach. Two contrasting contaminated land sites were chosen to characterise the two-dimensional spatial heterogeneity of heavy metal contamination in topsoil at a range of scales (50 m to 0.001 m). The spatial heterogeneity of contaminants, expressed as relative standard deviations, was found to differ between the two sites by a factor of two, largely due to the mode of deposition of pollution. The study also indicated that the heterogeneity did not change systematically with the scale of measurement between sampling locations at either site. 相似文献
43.
Paul Uvebrant Eva Björck Nils Conradi Klas-Henry Hökegård Tommy Martinsson Jan Wahlström 《黑龙江环境通报》1993,13(7):651-657
A family with two siblings, 10 and 8 years old, both with clinical and ultrastructural evidence of juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis is described. The family was found to be informative for the restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) detected by the probes pCJ52–95Ml (locus D16S148) and pCJ52-94Tl (locus D16S159) flanking the juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis locus, CLN3. The parents were both heterozygous using these probes, while their two children with juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis were both homozygous. Chorionic villi analysis showed that the fetus was heterozygous and had inherited the one allele of the mother which was not found in the two siblings. This suggested that the fetus had derived one healthy allele from the mother, the risk for a double crossing-over being less than 1 per cent. Electron microscopy showed no fingerprint inclusions in chorionic villi. The child was investigated at 6 months of age and found to be healthy, as new fingerprint inclusions were found at electron microscopy and no vacuolated lymphocytes were found in the blood smear. Due to the risk of heterogeneity, both DNA-based analysis and electron microscopy on chorionic villi are recommended for prenatal examination for juvenile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis. 相似文献
44.
45.
A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Xiaolu Zhou Changhui Peng Qing-Lai Dang Jiaxin Chen Sue Parton 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(4):525-543
Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability
in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems.
As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and
monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level
using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and
carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal
forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha−1 yr−1 in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central
Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground
biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha−1 for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested
land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha−1 with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the
LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s. 相似文献
46.
In angiosperms, archesporial cells in the anther primordium undergo meiosis to form haploid pollen, the sole occupants of anther sacs. Anther sacs are held together by a matrix of parenchyma cells, the connective tissue. Cells of the connective tissue are not known to differentiate. We report the differentiation of parenchyma cells in the connective tissue of two Gordonia species into pollen-like structures (described as pseudopollen), which migrate into the anther sacs before dehiscence. Pollen and pseudopollen were distinguishable by morphology and staining. Pollen were tricolpate to spherical while pseudopollen were less rigid and transparent with a ribbed surface. Both types were different in size, shape, staining and surface architecture. The ratio of the number of pseudopollen to pollen was 1:3. During ontogeny in the connective tissue, neither cell division nor tetrad formation was observed and hence pseudopollen were presumed to be diploid. Only normal pollen germinated on a germination medium. Fixed preparations in time seemed to indicate that pseudopollen migrate from the connective tissue into the anther sac. 相似文献
47.
48.
Bosch J 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2002,89(12):575-578
Female midwife toads (genus Alytes) emit highly variable reciprocal calls of unclear function prior to and during courtship. In some species, female-female competition, expressed as physical fighting, has been reported. Males of Majorcan midwife toads (Alytes muletensis) show phonotactic response to female calls, and females of Iberian midwife toads (Alytes cisternasii) respond differently according to the male call characteristics. In this study, I test the hypothesis of female-female acoustic competition as an additional function of female reciprocal calls. Playback tests indicate that female calls are not clearly involved in female acoustic competition in the Iberian midwife toad, therefore female calls could be directed at males rather than towards competitive females. 相似文献
49.
Paul Katzenberger 《Die Naturwissenschaften》1975,62(12):555-564
Works in the natural sciences are provided with comparatively less copyright protection than literary works. Nevertheless, this protection is important- for scientists. However, more recently, modern methods and techniques of information and documentation, such as reprography, microfilm archives, electronic data storage and retrieval, and data transmission have questioned the justification and effectiveness, even in principle, of this protection. A more detailed analysis demonstrates that this involves not so much a crisis of copyright law as a crisis of the entire field of scientific information. 相似文献
50.