Field-scale roles of density, temperature, nitrogen, and predation on aphid population dynamics

Robust analyses of noisy, stage-structured, irregularly spaced, field-scale data incorporating multiple sources of variability and nonlinear dynamics remain very limited, hindering understanding of how small-scale studies relate to large-scale population dynamics. We used a novel, complementary Bayesian and frequentist state-space model analysis to ask how density, temperature, plant nitrogen, and predators affect cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii) population dynamics in weekly data from 18 field-years and whether estimated effects are consistent with small-scale studies. We found clear roles of density and temperature but not of plant nitrogen or predators, for which Bayesian and frequentist evidence differed. However, overall predictability of field-scale dynamics remained low. This study demonstrates stage-structured state-space model analysis incorporating bottom-up, top-down, and density-dependent effects for within-season (nearly continuous time), nonlinear population dynamics. The analysis combines Bayesian posterior evidence with maximum-likelihood estimation and frequentist hypothesis testing using average one-step-ahead residuals.     

The Use of Meteorological Modeling and Biological Indicators to Identify Sources of Phytotoxic Pollutants

Meteorological dispersion modeling and pine trees used as "integrating monitors" were used to consider the probable source of a phytotoxic pollutant producing symptoms previously un-reported in the literature. Two sources, a chemical plant (A) and a fabric finishing plant (B) north of Raleigh, NC, were considered using the Air Quality Display Model (AQDM). Using the ability of this model to accommodate extra receptors corresponding to "monitoring" sites, we found good correlation between observed injury and predicted relative concentrations due to assumed emissions from source A. The poor agreement between predicted and observed injury if source B alone were modeled (or both sources together) suggested that source A alone emitted the causal agent.     

Speciated Hydrocarbon Emissions from the Combustion of Single Component Fuels. I. Effect of Fuel Structure

Speciated hydrocarbon emissions data have been collected for six single-component fuels run in a laboratory pulse flame combustor (PFC). The six fuels include n-heptane, isooctane (2, 2, 4-trimethylpentane), cyclohexane, 1-hexene, toluene, and methyl-t-butyl ether (MTBE: an oxygenated fuel extender). Combustion of non-aromatic fuels in the PFC (at a fuel/air equivalence ratio of Φ = 1.02) produced low levels of unburned fuel and high yields of methane and olefins (> 75 percent combined) irrespective of the molecular structure of the fuel. In contrast, hydrocarbon emissions from toluene combustion in the PFC were comprised predominantly of unburned fuel (72 percent). With the PFC, low levels of 1, 3-butadiene (0.3-1.8 percent) were observed from all the fuels except MTBE, for which no measurable level (<0.2 percent) was detected; low levels of benzene were observed from isooctane, heptane, and 1-hexene, but significant levels (9 percent) from cyclohexane and toluene. No measurable amount of benzene (< 0.2 percent) was observed in the MTBE exhaust.

For isooctane and toluene the speciated hydrocarbon emissions from a spark-ignited (SI) single-cylinder engine were also determined. HC emissions from the SI engine contained the same species as observed from the PFC, although the relative composition was different. For the non-aromatic fuel isooctane, unburned fuel represented a larger fraction (50 percent) of the HC emissions when run in the engine. HC emissions from toluene combustion in the engine were similar to those from the PFC.     

Particulate matter sources on an hourly timescale in a rural community during the winter

Particulate matter (PM) sources at four different monitoring sites in Alexandra, New Zealand, were investigated on an hourly timescale. Three of the sites were located on a horizontal transect, upwind, central, and downwind of the general katabatic flow pathway. The fourth monitoring site was located at the central site, but at a height of 26 m, using a knuckleboom, when wind conditions permitted. Average hourly PM₁₀ (PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) concentrations in Alexandra showed slightly different diurnal profiles depending on the sampling site location. Each location did, however, feature a large evening peak and smaller morning peak in PM₁₀ concentrations. The central site in Alexandra experienced the highest PM₁₀ concentrations as a result of PM transport along a number of katabatic flow pathways. A significant difference in PM₁₀ concentrations between the central and elevated sites indicated that a shallow inversion layer formed below the elevated site, limiting the vertical dispersion of pollutants. Four PM₁₀ sources were identified at each of the sites: biomass combustion, vehicles, crustal matter, and marine aerosol. Biomass combustion was identified as the most significant source of PM₁₀, contributing up to 91% of the measured PM₁₀. Plots of the average hourly source contributions to each site revealed that biomass combustion was responsible for both the evening and morning peaks in PM₁₀ concentrations observed at each of the sites, suggesting that Alexandra residents were relighting their fires when they rose in the morning. The identification of PM sources on an hourly timescale can have significant implications for air quality management.

Implications: Monitoring the sources of PM₁₀ on an hourly timescale at multiple sites within an airshed provides extremely useful information for air quality management. Sources responsible for observed peaks in measured diurnal PM₁₀ concentration profiles can be easily identified and targeted for reduction. Also, hourly PM₁₀ sampling can provide crucial information on the role meteorology plays in the development of elevated PM₁₀ concentrations.     

A robust-design formulation of the incidence function model of metapopulation dynamics applied to two species of rails

The incidence function model (IFM) uses area and connectivity to predict metapopulation dynamics. However, false absences and missing data can lead to underestimates of the number of sites contributing to connectivity, resulting in overestimates of dispersal ability and turnovers (extinctions plus colonizations). We extend estimation methods for the IFM by using a hierarchical Bayesian model to account both for false absences due to imperfect detection and for missing data due to sites not surveyed in some years. We compare parameter estimates, measures of metapopulation dynamics, and forecasts using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) among three IFM models: (1) a Bayesian formulation assuming no false absences and omitting site-year combinations with missing data; (2) a hierarchical Bayesian formulation assuming no false absences but incorporating missing data; and (3) a hierarchical Bayesian formulation allowing for imperfect detection and incorporating missing data. We fit the models to multiyear data sets of occupancy for two bird species that differ in body size and presumed dispersal ability but inhabit the same network of sites: the small Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis) and the medium-sized Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola). Incorporating missing data affected colonization parameters and led to lower estimates of dispersal ability for the Black Rail. Detection rates were high for the Black Rail in most years but moderate for the Virginia Rail. Incorporating imperfect detection resulted in higher occupancy and lower turnover rates for both species, with largest effects for the Virginia Rail. Forecasts using SPOMs were sensitive to both missing data and false absences; persistence in models assuming no false absences was more optimistic than from robust models. Our results suggest that incorporating false absences and missing data into the IFM can improve (1) estimates of dispersal ability and the effect of connectivity on colonization, (2) the scaling of extinction risk with patch area, and (3) forecasts of occupancy and turnover rates.     

Distributional 234,238U, 226Ra, 210Pb and 210Po in soil

A soil profile from 0 to 90 cm was collected in an undisturbeded area of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Five centimeter increments of the profile were analyzed for ^234,238U, ²²⁶Ra, ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po. The factors affecting the activity distribution of these naturally-occurring radionuclides are discussed for this particular soil type.     

The influence of zeolite type A on heavy metal transfer in the activated sludge process

In areas which are highly urbanised, where water re-use is frequently necessary, the importance of “heavy metal” removal during sewage treatment cannot be overestimated. One critical factor controlling the forms of the metals in the sewage is the chemical matrix of the sewage; as a consequence of their chelating capacity detergent builders are important in modifying the sewage matrix. Laboratory simulations of the activated sludge process have been studied to estimate the impact of the detergent builder zeolite type A on the removal of heavy metals from sewage in this treatment process.Experiments have also been undertaken in which the influent concentrations of the builder were doubled, in an endevour to simulate the effect of a “wash day”. It is apparent from the data presented that under conditions of constant loading, zeolite type A did not significantly affect the concentrations of any of the metals studied with the exception of zinc. However, removal of some of the metals was less than in the presence of a condensed phosphate solution. Under conditions of shock loading the improvement in metal removal which has been observed when condensed phosphates were added under conditions o of variable loading was not observed when zeolite type A was added under similar conditions.     

Frontal zone analysis at the mouth of Saanich Inlet,British Columbia,Canada

The presence of a biological front at the mouth of an inlet (fjord) on the coast of British Columbia, Canada was established. The presence of the biological front was consistent with physical predictions based on water velocity and depth. The frontal zone was characterized by a high primary productivity and surface chlorophyll. From spectral analysis of data the zone was found to fluctuate under tidal influence so that observations made at a single point showed a 14-d cycle in chlorophyll maxima which was about 180° out of phase with maxima in tidal exchange.     

Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process

Especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, governments worldwide have invested considerable resources in the writing of terrorism emergency response plans. Particularly in the United States, the federal government has created new homeland security organisations and urged state and local governments to draw up plans. This emphasis on the written plan tends to draw attention away from the process of planning itself and the original objective of achieving community emergency preparedness. This paper reviews the concepts of community preparedness and emergency planning, and their relationships with training, exercises and the written plan. A series of 10 planning process guidelines are presented that draw upon the preparedness literature for natural and technological disasters, and can be applied to any environmental threat.