Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO₂ in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.     

The application of potassium ferrate for sewage treatment

The comparative performance of potassium ferrate(VI), ferric sulphate and aluminium sulphate for the removal of turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), colour (as Vis400-abs) and bacteria in sewage treatment was evaluated. For coagulation and disinfection of sewage, potassium ferrate(VI) can remove more organic contaminants, COD and bacteria in comparison with the other two coagulants for the same doses used. Also, potassium ferrate(VI) produces less sludge volume and removes more contaminants, which should make subsequent sludge treatment easier.     

Documenting measurement sensitivity and bias of field-measured parameters in water quality monitoring programs

Measurement sensitivity and bias quality control metrics are commonly reported for water-quality parameters measured in the laboratory. Less commonly recognized is that they should also be reported for field-measured parameters. Periodic evaluation helps document data quality and can help serve as early warning if there are problems with methods or techniques that could negatively affect ability to interpret threshold values and trends over time. This study focuses on traditional assessment of bias and introduces a new method for estimating measurement sensitivity of water-quality parameters measured monthly in the field. Alternative measurement sensitivity is a new data quality indicator used to demonstrate how quantifying sensitivity at the measurement level can improve understanding the uncertainty affecting each reported data value. That, in turn, can help interpret the meaning of results from many separate data points measured in the field. In this 30-month study, pH and specific conductance consistently met, and dissolved oxygen did not always meet NPS and USGS quality control standards for bias. Evaluation of dissolved oxygen bias and sensitivity during the study provided impetus to improve calibration techniques that resulted in data that later met quality goals.     

Cypress dome characteristics within one county of the Southern United States: a case study of changes

Cypress domes are non-transient, disconnected, depressional wetland areas scattered about the southern United States. Baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.), swamp tupelo (Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora) and other trees species typically occupy these sites. Even though these areas are relatively fixed on the landscape, given land use changes over the last 60–70 years, the spatial character of the resource may have undergone some change as well. A small case study of one Georgia county suggests that there was net decrease in cypress dome land area from 1940 to 2007. The case study also suggests that there was a significant change in the land class(es) adjacent to or containing cypress domes. In addition, the physical shape of cypress domes seems to have changed, perhaps due to mechanical treatment of the land during commercial forestry operations. While the shape of cypress domes that were adjacent to mature forests in 1940 was not significantly different than the shape of the same cypress domes that were adjacent to mature forests in 2007, the shape of cypress domes adjacent to agricultural land and pasture/forest land uses in 1940 was significantly different in shape than their 2007 counterparts. Thus, the value of this study is in suggesting that the physical shape of cypress domes that were once adjacent to agricultural or pasture/forest lands seems to have changed, perhaps due to mechanical treatment of the land during the transition from agricultural practices to commercial forestry operations. The study also highlights the need for assessing the hydrologic changes in wetland function due to changes in cypress dome shape, and due to mechanical operations used along the edges of cypress domes to effectively adjust their shape. Research along these lines can lead to a better understanding of the spatial character of the cypress resource in areas that were once used for agricultural or pasture/forest purposes and may lead to more effective management strategies for protecting its role in society.     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.     

Design and development of novel insect growth regulators: synthesis, characterization and effect of benzoyl thymyl thioureas and ureas on total haemocyte count of Dysdercus koenigii

Insect-growth regulators (IGRs) have been receiving foremost attention as potential means of selective insect control. Benzoyl phenyl urea (BPU) is a well-known IGR having chitin synthesis inhibitor activity. Mimics of BPU have been synthesized by suitable derivatization of a naturally occurring monoterpenoid, thymol (2-isopropyl-5-methyl phenol) to form a = series of substituted benzoyl thymyl thioureas (BTTUs) [IVa-f] and benzoyl thymyl ureas (BTUs) [Va-f]. The synthesized compounds have been characterized by (1)H and (13)C NMR, LC-MS and elemental analysis. These derivatives have been screened for their effect on total haemocyte count of Dysdercus koenigii. It has been observed that the introduction of substituted benzoyl thiourea and urea linkage into a thymol ring via an amino group results in higher activity than the parent compound thymol and a comparable pattern of results with the standard insect-growth regulators, Penfluron. Urea [Va-f] compounds exhibited greater effect on Total Haemocyte Count (THC) than thiourea [IVa-f]. Fluoro substitution enhanced the effect on THC more than chloro substituted compounds, while ortho-substitution resulted in a better effect than para-substitution. The results described in this paper are promising and provide new array of synthetic chemicals that may be utilized as insect growth regulators.     

Natural Resource Dependency and Decentralized Conservation Within Kanchenjunga Conservation Area Project,Nepal

Kanchenjunga Conservation Area Project (KCAP) in Nepal is among the first protected areas in the world to institute a completely decentralized system of conservation and development. Proponents of decentralized conservation claim that it increases management efficiency, enhances the responsiveness to local needs, and promotes greater equity among local residents. This study assessed local equity by evaluating the levels of dependencies on natural resources among households and the factors affecting that dependency. Data were collected via detailed surveys among 205 randomly selected households within the KCAP. Natural resource dependency was evaluated by comparing the ratio of total household income to income derived from access to natural resources. Economic, social, and access-related variables were employed to determine potential significant predictors of dependency. Overall, households were heavily dependent on natural resources for their income, especially households at higher elevations and those with more adult members. The households that received remittances were most able to supplement their income and, therefore, drastically reduced their reliance on the access to natural resources. Socio-economic variables, such as land holdings, education, caste, and ethnicity, failed to predict dependency. Household participation in KCAP-sponsored training programs also failed to affect household dependency; however, fewer than 20% of the households had any form of direct contact with KCAP personnel within the past year. The success of the KCAP as a decentralized conservation program is contingent on project capacity-building via social mobilization, training programs, and participatory inclusion in decision making to help alleviate the dependency on natural resources.     

A Classification of U.S. Estuaries Based on Physical and Hydrologic Attributes

A classification of U.S. estuaries is presented based on estuarine characteristics that have been identified as important for quantifying stressor-response relationships in coastal systems. Estuaries within a class have similar physical and hydrologic characteristics and would be expected to demonstrate similar biological responses to stressor loads from the adjacent watersheds. Nine classes of estuaries were identified by applying cluster analysis to a database for 138 U.S. estuarine drainage areas. The database included physical measures of estuarine areas, depth and volume, as well as hydrologic parameters (i.e., tide height, tidal prism volume, freshwater inflow rates, salinity, and temperature). The ability of an estuary to dilute or flush pollutants can be estimated using physical and hydrologic properties such as volume, bathymetry, freshwater inflow and tidal exchange rates which influence residence time and affect pollutant loading rates. Thus, physical and hydrologic characteristics can be used to estimate the susceptibility of estuaries to pollutant effects. This classification of estuaries can be used by natural resource managers to describe and inventory coastal systems, understand stressor impacts, predict which systems are most sensitive to stressors, and manage and protect coastal resources.     

Prioritizing occupational injury prevention in the construction industry: injury severity or absence?

PROBLEM: National occupational injury prevention goals often prioritize the reduction of serious injuries. This study analyzed whether this prioritization is credible in respect to lost-time injuries and short and long term work absence, and the implications this has for injury severity-based versus injury absence-based prevention approaches. METHOD: The data consisted of national and work-site specific injury and absence data from construction workers in Denmark, including workers from the Copenhagen Metro construction sites, during the period 2000-2001. RESULTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENT: Absence length was significantly dependent on the type of injury. Sprains and strains were most prevalent and accounted for approximately one third of injuries and absence. Fractures accounted for one sixth of injuries and the greatest proportion of long-term absence. The results give credibility to the need for targeting sprains and strains in injury and absence prevention initiatives.