Simulating forest structure, timber production, and socioeconomic effects in a multi-owner province.

Protecting biodiversity has become a major goal in managing coastal forests in the Pacific Northwest--an area in which human activities have had a significant influence on landscape change. A complex pattern of public and private forest ownership, combined with new regulations for each owner group, raises questions about how well and how efficiently these policies achieve their biodiversity goals. To develop a deeper understanding of the aggregate effect of forest policies, we simulated forest structures, timber production, and socioeconomic conditions over time for the mixture of private and public lands in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. To make these projections, we recognized both vegetative complexity at the stand level and spatial complexity at the landscape level. We focused on the two major factors influencing landscape change in the forests of the Coast Range: (1) land use, especially development for houses and cities, and (2) forest management, especially clearcutting. Our simulations of current policy suggest major changes in land use on the margins of the Coast Range, a divergence in forest structure among the different owners, an increase in old-growth forests, and a continuing loss of the structural elements associated with diverse young forests. Our simulations also suggest that current harvest levels can be approximately maintained, with the harvest coming almost entirely from private lands. A policy alternative that retained live trees for wildlife would increase remnant structures but at a cost to landowners (5-7% reduction in timber production). Another alternative that precluded thinning of plantations on federal land would significantly reduce the area of very large diameter (>75 cm dbh) conifer forests 100 years into the future     

What difference might sewage treatment performance make to endocrine disruption in rivers?

An assessment of the steroid estrogen removing performance of 23 different sewage treatment plants (STPs) was performed. The assessment relied on a model to estimate influent concentrations, and completed questionnaires on the STP treatment details from the relevant water companies. This information was compared with observed effluent 17beta-estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1) concentrations. The 10 biological filter plants (BFP) in the study performed poorly with only 30% (SD 31) removal on average for E1. This reduced E1 removal performance of the BFPs compared to all the other STP types in the survey was statistically significant (p<0.001). Scenarios of all the STPs as activated sludge types, and one as all BFP types were modelled using the GREAT-ER model set up for the Aire/Calder catchment in the UK. This difference was shown to have an important effect on predicted river E1 concentrations and consequent risk classifications.     

Toxicity of fipronil and its enantiomers to marine and freshwater non-targets

Fipronil is a phenylpyrazole insecticide used in agricultural and domestic settings for controlling various insect pests in crops, lawns, and residential structures. Fipronil is chiral; however, it is released into the environment as a racemic mixture of two enantiomers. In this study, the acute toxicity of the (S,+) and (R,-) enantiomers and the racemic mixture of fipronil were assessed using Simulium vittatum IS-7 (black fly), Xenopus laevis (African clawed frog), Procambarus clarkii (crayfish), Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp), Mercenaria mercenaria (hardshell clam), and Dunaliella tertiolecta (phytoplankton). Results showed that S. vittatum IS-7 was the most sensitive freshwater species to the racemic mixture of fipronil (LC50 = 0.65 microg/L) while P. pugio was the most sensitive marine species (LC50 = 0.32 microg/L). Procambarus clarkii were significantly more sensitive to the (S,+) enantiomer while larval P. pugio were significantly more sensitive to the (R,-) enantiomer. Enantioselective toxicity was not observed in the other organisms tested. Increased mortality and minimal recovery was observed in all species tested for recovery from fipronil exposure. These results indicate that the most toxic isomer of fipronil is organism-specific and that enantioselective toxicity may be more common in crustaceans than in other aquatic organisms.     

Criteria and Air-Toxic Emissions from In-Use Automobiles in the National Low-Emission Vehicle Program

Abstract

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) implemented a program to identify tailpipe emissions of criteria and air-toxic contaminants from in-use, light-duty low-emission vehicles (LEVs). EPA recruited 25 LEVs in 2002 and measured emissions on a chassis dynamometer using the cold-start urban dynamometer driving schedule of the Federal Test Procedure. The emissions measured included regulated pollutants, particulate matter, speciated hydrocarbon compounds, and carbonyl compounds. The results provided a comparison of emissions from real-world LEVs with emission standards for criteria and air-toxic compounds. Emission measurements indicated that a portion of the in-use fleet tested exceeded standards for the criteria gases. Real-time regulated and speciated hydrocarbon measurements demonstrated that the majority of emissions occurred during the initial phases of the cold-start portion of the urban dynamometer driving schedule. Overall, the study provided updated emission factor data for real-world, in-use operation of LEVs for improved emissions modeling and mobile source inventory development.     

Ecosystem responses to reduced and oxidised nitrogen inputs in European terrestrial habitats

While it is well established that ecosystems display strong responses to elevated nitrogen deposition, the importance of the ratio between the dominant forms of deposited nitrogen (NH_x and NO_y) in determining ecosystem response is poorly understood. As large changes in the ratio of oxidised and reduced nitrogen inputs are occurring, this oversight requires attention. One reason for this knowledge gap is that plants experience a different NH_x:NO_y ratio in soil to that seen in atmospheric deposits because atmospheric inputs are modified by soil transformations, mediated by soil pH. Consequently species of neutral and alkaline habitats are less likely to encounter high NH₄⁺ concentrations than species from acid soils. We suggest that the response of vascular plant species to changing ratios of NH_x:NO_y deposits will be driven primarily by a combination of soil pH and nitrification rates. Testing this hypothesis requires a combination of experimental and survey work in a range of systems.     

Age dependence of potentially toxic elements (Sb,Cd, Pb,Ag) in human liver tissue from paediatric subjects

Toxic elements are present at low concentrations in the environment. This work was undertaken to investigate the age dependence of the liver content of selected elements in paediatric populations, as an index of internal exposure. Liver samples were collected at autopsy from 157 subjects, aged < 1 day to 6 years, as part of investigations on a possible role of Sb compounds in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). In addition to Sb, the concentrations of Ag, Cd and Pb were also determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry on the remaining digest. Comparison of 95% confidence intervals of the median concentrations of the four elements suggested that there were no differences between the two categories of cause of death, SIDS or those who had died of an identified disease. Cadmium, lead and antimony median concentrations were lower than corresponding values observed in adult populations. Silver concentrations were significantly higher at birth and decreased with age. Cadmium levels were almost negligible in neonates and infants, but increased in older children. The finding of non-negligible concentrations of both Ag and Pb in neonatal liver provides further direct evidence that these elements cross the human placental barrier. The reported data, by far the largest collection observed in subjects less than 1 year old, are the result of exposure, during pregnancy and in early childhood, to present levels of these elements in the environment. They can serve as a reference to compare post-mortem values from individuals or groups of subjects in this age range when an exposure risk is suspected and to highlight trends in human exposure.     

IMPROVING AQUATIC HABITAT CONDITIONS OVER TIME WHILE PRODUCING WOOD PRODUCTS: AN EXAMINATION OF OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: A land management activity scheduling model that can perform a multi-period, simultaneous evaluation of aquatic habitat quality and commodity production goals was used to identify alternatives which would allow the improvement of aquatic habitat conditions over time, while producing wood products. The scheduling model has the ability to use stream sediment index levels, stream temperature index levels, and equivalent clearcut acres (ECA) levels as primary goals. A secondary goal imbedded in the model is the achievement of an even-flow of timber harvest volume, and a tertiary goal is the achievement of maximum efficiency (maximum net present value). The scheduling model utilizes a heuristic programming technique (Tabu search) to guide the selection of timber harvests and road standards. A 14,643 acre case study watershed in eastern Oregon is used to illustrate several policy scenarios. Activities considered include: clearcutting and partial cutting; cable, skyline, ground-based, and helicopter logging; road obliteration; requiring lower truck tire pressures on forest roads; and tree planting in riparian areas. The scheduling model produced land management plans which were spatially and temporally feasible over ten ten-year time periods. Stream temperature was shown to be dramatically reduced if tree planting is performed in all riparian areas, regardless of whether harvesting activities occurred, and including meadows and forested areas where shade density is low. Timber harvest volume levels decreased 31 to 43 percent, and net present value levels decreased 36 to 46 percent, from an unconstrained case, when any of the following occurred: ECA was constrained to 15 percent, sediment index levels were required to decrease by 1 percent per decade, or temperature levels were constrained to “no harvest” levels. The use of a heuristic programming technique is a departure from traditional techniques that are commonly used in management plan development. Yet the heuristic technique allows the inclusion of complex management goals, many of which may be prohibited when using more traditional mathematical programming techniques. In addition, decision variables which require spatial information, requiring them to take on integer or non-linear representations, can be accounted for without realizing the limitations of the traditional techniques.     

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.