A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

Can Rapid Assessment Protocols Be Used to Judge Sediment Impairment in Gravel‐Bed Streams? A Commentary

Land management agencies commonly use rapid assessments to evaluate the impairment of gravel‐bed streams by sediment inputs from anthropogenic sources. We question whether rapid assessment can be used to reliably judge sediment impairment at a site or in a region. Beyond the challenges of repeatable and accurate sampling, we argue that a single metric or protocol is unlikely to reveal causative relations because channel condition can result from multiple pathways, processes, and background controls. To address these concerns, a contextual analysis is needed to link affected resources, causal factors, and site history to reliably identify human influences. Contextual analysis is equivalent in principle to cumulative effects and watershed analyses and has a rich history, but has gradually been replaced by rapid assessment methods. Although the approaches differ, rapid assessment and contextual analysis are complementary and can be implemented in a two‐tiered approach in which rapid assessment provides a coarse (first‐tier) analysis to identify sites that deserve deeper contextual assessment (second‐tier). Contextual analysis is particularly appropriate for site‐specific studies that should be tailored to local conditions. A balance between rapid assessment and contextual analysis is needed to provide the most effective information for management decisions.     

Greenhouse gas emission and its potential mitigation process from the waste sector in a large-scale exhibition

As one of the largest human activities, World Expo is an important source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG), and the GHG emission and other environmental impacts of the Expo Shanghai 2010, where around 59,397 tons of waste was generated during 184 Expo running days, were assessed by life cycle assessment (LCA). Two scenarios, i.e., the actual and expected figures of the waste sector, were assessed and compared, and 124.01 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.), 4.43 kg SO₂-eq., 4.88 kg NO₃^--eq., and 3509 m³ water per ton tourist waste were found to be released in terms of global warming (GW), acidification (AC), nutrient enrichment (NE) and spoiled groundwater resources (SGWR), respectively. The total GHG emission was around 3499 ton CO₂-eq. from the waste sector in Expo Park, among which 86.47% was generated during the waste landfilling at the rate of 107.24 kg CO₂-eq., and CH₄, CO and other hydrocarbons (HC) were the main contributors. If the waste sorting process had been implemented according to the plan scenario, around 497 ton CO₂-eq. savings could have been attained. Unlike municipal solid waste, with more organic matter content, an incineration plant is more suitable for tourist waste disposal due to its high heating value, from the GHG reduction perspective.     

Climate change adaptation,mitigation and livelihood benefits in coffee production: where are the synergies?

There are worldwide approximately 4.3 million coffee (Coffea arabica) producing smallholders generating a large share of tropical developing countries’ gross domestic product, notably in Central America. Their livelihoods and coffee production are facing major challenges due to projected climate change, requiring adaptation decisions that may range from changes in management practices to changes in crops or migration. Since management practices such as shade use and reforestation influence both climate vulnerability and carbon stocks in coffee, there may be synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation that could make it advantageous to jointly pursue both objectives. In some cases, carbon accounting for mitigation actions might even be used to incentivize and subsidize adaptation actions. To assess potential synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation in smallholder coffee production systems, we quantified (i) the potential of changes in coffee production and processing practices as well as other livelihood activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) coffee farmers’ climate change vulnerability and need for adaptation, including the possibility of carbon markets subsidizing adaptation. We worked with smallholder organic coffee farmers in Northern Nicaragua, using workshops, interviews, farm visits and the Cool Farm Tool software to calculate greenhouse gas balances of coffee farms. From the 12 activities found to be relevant for adaptation, two showed strong and five showed modest synergies with mitigation. Afforestation of degraded areas with coffee agroforestry systems and boundary tree plantings resulted in the highest synergies between adaptation and mitigation. Financing possibilities for joint adaptation-mitigation activities could arise through carbon offsetting, carbon insetting, and carbon footprint reductions. Non-monetary benefits such as technical assistance and capacity building could be effective in promoting such synergies at low transaction costs.     

The willingness to pay to remove billboards and improve scenic amenities

We use the contingent valuation method to measure the amount citizens are willing to pay to improve scenic mountain-view amenities through the removal of billboards. Our approach addresses both the perceived property rights as well as the perceptions of the status quo in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We find that individuals who retire to the mountains have different preferences for land use and mountain views than individuals who have ancestors who lived in Watauga County. In the aggregate, we find that citizens are willing to pay almost one-half million dollars to remove billboards from Watauga County roadsides. This study provides insights to the debate surrounding land use along public roads.     

Community Capacity for Implementing Clean Development Mechanism Projects Within Community Forests in Cameroon

There is a growing assumption that payments for environmental services including carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emission reduction provide an opportunity for poverty reduction and the enhancement of sustainable development within integrated natural resource management approaches. Yet in experiential terms, community-based natural resource management implementation falls short of expectations in many cases. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetry between community capacity and the Land Use Land Use Change Forestry (LULUCF) provisions of the Clean Development Mechanism within community forests in Cameroon. We use relevant aspects of the Clean Development Mechanism criteria and notions of “community capacity” to elucidate determinants of community capacity needed for CDM implementation within community forests. The main requirements are for community capacity to handle issues of additionality, acceptability, externalities, certification, and community organisation. These community capacity requirements are further used to interpret empirically derived insights on two community forestry cases in Cameroon. While local variations were observed for capacity requirements in each case, community capacity was generally found to be insufficient for meaningful uptake and implementation of Clean Development Mechanism projects. Implications for understanding factors that could inhibit or enhance community capacity for project development are discussed. We also include recommendations for the wider Clean Development Mechanism/Kyoto capacity building framework.     

Using survival analysis to study translocation success in the Gila topminnow (Poeciliopsis occidentalis).

Translocation, the intentional release of captive-propagated and/or wild-caught animals into the wild in an attempt to establish, reestablish, or augment a population, is a commonly used approach to species conservation. Despite the frequent mention of translocation as an aid in threatened or endangered species recovery plans, translocations have resulted in the establishment of few sustainable populations. To improve the effectiveness of translocation efforts, it is essential to identify and adopt features that contribute to successful translocations. This study analyzed 148 translocations of the endangered Gila topminnow (Poeciliopsis occidentalis) to identify various factors that have significantly influenced translocation success. We quantified success as the "persistence time" of translocated populations and used survival analysis to interpret the role of several factors. The following factors affected persistence times of translocated populations: season in which the fish were translocated, habitat type of the translocation site, and genetic origin of the fish stocked. In general, factors associated with stocking, the population stocked, and the site of translocation can significantly affect the persistence of translocated populations and thus increase the probability of translocation success. For Gila topminnow, future translocations should be undertaken in late summer or fall (not early summer), should occur into ponds (not streams, wells, or tanks), and should generally utilize individuals from genetic lineages other than Monkey Spring. For other species, a key lesson emerging from this work is that life history attributes for each translocated species need to be considered carefully.     

Chemical composition and hygroscopic properties of size-segregated aerosol particles collected at the Adriatic coast of Slovenia

The chemical composition as well as the water uptake characteristics of aerosols was determined in size-segregated samples collected during November 2002 on the Slovenian coast. Major ions, water-soluble organic compounds (WSOC), short-chain carboxylic acids and trace elements were determined in the water-soluble fraction of the aerosol. Total aerosol black carbon (BC) was measured from filter samples. Our results showed that the origin of air masses is an important factor that controls the variation in the size distribution of the main components. Very high concentrations of WSOC as well as higher concentrations of BC were found under mostly continental influence. Besides the main ionic species (SO4(2-), NH4(+), K+) in the finest size fraction (0.17-0.53 microm), the concentration of NO3(-) was also high. The difference between the two different air mass origins is particularly expressed for Cl-, Na+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ determined in particles larger than 1.6 microm. As expected, a very good correlation was found between Na+ and Cl-. A good correlation was found between sea salt elements and elements of crustal origin (Na+, Cl-, Mg2+, Ca2+, Sr). A good relationship between typical anthropogenic tracers (K, V and Pb) was also observed. The mass growth factors, for all size fractions of aerosols collected under continental influence were very low (maximum 2.23 at 94%, 1.6-5.1 microm), while under marine influence the mass growth factors increased significantly with the particle size. At 97% humidity, the mass growth factors were 6.95 for the size fraction 0.53-1.6 microm and 9.78 for larger particles (1.6-5.1 microm).     

Assessment of pesticide residues in army cutworm moths (Euxoa auxiliaris) from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and their potential consequences to foraging grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis)

During summer, a grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) (USA) can excavate and consume millions of army cutworm moths (Euxoa auxiliaris) (ACMs) that aggregate in high elevation talus. Grizzly bears in the GYE were listed as threatened by the US Fish and Wildlife Service in 1975 and were proposed for delisting in 2005. However, questions remain about key bear foods. For example, ACMs are agricultural pests and concern exists about whether they contain pesticides that could be toxic to bears. Consequently, we investigated whether ACMs contain and transport pesticides to bear foraging sites and, if so, whether these levels could be toxic to bears. In 1999 we collected and analyzed ACMs from six bear foraging sites. ACMs were screened for 32 pesticides with gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC-ECD). Because gas chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) can be more sensitive than GC-ECD for certain pesticides, we revisited one site in 2001 and analyzed these ACMs with GC-MS/MS. ACMs contained trace or undetectable levels of pesticides in 1999 and 2001, respectively. Based on chemical levels in ACMs and numbers of ACMs a bear can consume, we calculated the potential of chemicals to reach physiological toxicity. These calculations indicate bears do not consume physiologically toxic levels of pesticides and allay concerns they are at risk from pesticides transported by ACMs. If chemical control of ACMs changes in the future, screening new ACM samples taken from bear foraging sites may be warranted.     

Evidence for life history changes in high-altitude populations of three perennial forbs

Relatively little is known about how the life histories of perennial forb species, and especially their lifetime patterns of growth, vary across environmental gradients. We used a post hoc approach (herb-chronology) to determine plant age and previous growth (width of successive annual rings in roots) in three species of perennial forb (two long-lived species [Penstemon venustus, Lupinus laxiflorus] and one short-lived [Rudbeckia occidentalis]) along a 1000-m altitudinal gradient in the Wallowa Mountains (northeast Oregon, USA). Plants from the highest altitude tended to be considerably older and produced up to five times as many flowering shoots as lowland plants. In addition, mean ring widths of high-altitude plants were about half those of lowland plants. In plants from low and intermediate altitudes, ring width either decreased linearly or varied inconsistently during the life of the plant. In contrast, ring widths of high-altitude plants increased at first and later decreased, resulting in curvilinear growth trajectories that were highly consistent among species. Together, these data for three ecologically distinct forb species provide evidence of a consistent shift toward more conservative and strongly constrained life histories at higher altitudes. More generally, the results indicate the possible importance of changes in selection pressures across strong environmental gradients on life history strategies within a single species.