Earthquake risk reduction: An examination of local regulatory efforts

We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state mandates.     

Ecologically derived guidelines for managing two New Zealand lakes

Lakes Manapouri and Te Anau, in Fiordland National Park, became the center of a major controversy after the New Zealand government offered their water resource to an overseas aluminum smelting consortium for electricity generation. Although the scheme proceeded, the lake levels were not raised as originally proposed. Rather, government sought guidelines to optimize hydroelectric potential while maintaining ecological stability of the vulnerable, largely forested, glaciated lakeshores. Guidelines were derived by relating the vegetation zonation to the natural lake-level fluctuations recorded daily for 37 years. Ahigh operating range in the upper third of the lakes' natural ranges, based on flood tolerances of the woody shoreline species, restricts both duration and frequency. Alow operating range (ca. lower third) safeguards stability of shoreline sediments by limiting drawn-down rates, duration, and frequency. Themain operating range (ca. middle third) has few limitations. These guidelines, which allow utilization of ca. 93% of the water resource, have now been verified by instances of flooding and draw-down rates that exceeded the natural rates recorded earlier. The guidelines were officially accepted by the government in 1977 as a basis for managing the valuable multiple resources of these two lakes and their environs, and they were formalized in legislation in 1981. The details and merits of the guideline approach are discussed.     

UK interpretation and implementation of the EEC Shellfish directive

The EEC Shellfish Directive is a policy designed to protect and, where necessary, improve the quality of designated shellfish waters. Its implementation within the UK, however, has had no effect upon water quality for two reasons. First, the policy has important defects, having ambiguities concerning public health provisions and lacking designation criteria. Second, UK government has sought to achieve formal compliance, while at the same time ensuring that its full financial impact on public expenditure has been contained. Consequently, only those fisheries which already comply with water quality standards have been designated. Within Wales, one fishery has been designated, while other, commercially more important, but grossly contaminated shellfisheries have not.     

SENSITIVITY OF HIGH-ELEVATION STREAMS IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PROVINCE TO ACIDIC DEPOSITION1

ABSTRACT: The Southern Blue Ridge Province, which encompasses parts of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina, has been predicted to be sensitive to impacts from acidic deposition, owing to the chemical composition of the bedrock geology and soils. This study confirms the predicted potential sensitivity, quantifies the level of total alkalinity and describes the chemical characteristics of 30 headwater streams of this area. Water chemistry was measured five times between April 1983 and June 1984 at first and third order reaches of each stream during baseflow conditions. Sensitivity based on total alkalinity and the Calcite Saturation Index indicates that the headwater streams of the Province are vulnerable to acidification. Total alkalinity and p11 were generally higher in third order reaches (mean, 72 μeq/θ and 6.7) than in first order reaches (64 μeq/θ and 6.4). Ionic concentrations were low, averaging 310 and 340 μeq/θ in first and third order reaches, respectively. A single sampling appears adequate for evaluating sensitivity based on total alkalinity, but large temporal variability requires multiple sampling for the detection of changes in pH and alkalinity over time. Monitoring of stream water should continue in order to detect any subtle effects of acidic deposition on these unique resource systems.     

PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF COVARIANCES OF REGIONALIZED VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: The usefulness of stochastic models in describing the spatial variability of hydrogeologic quantities, such as permeability, storativity, piezometric head, seepage velocity, and solute concentrations is now widely recognized. In practice, these quantities are represented as the sum of a well-structured component, or drift, and a more erratic fluctuation component which is described statistically through its covariance function. This paper reviews some of the most recent and most promising methods for the estimation of parameters of these covariances from existing data. They are maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, minimum-variance unbiased quadratic estimation, and minimum-norm (weighted least squares) estimation. The applicability of such methods to conditional and unconditional probability problems is discussed.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: COMBINING NOMINAL GROUP PROCESS AND MICROCOMPUTERS1

ABSTRACT: The growing concern for public participation in water resource decision-making has invited researchers to improve and develop reliable, quick, and inexpensive techniques for measuring public preferences. It is increasingly clear that traditional participation mechanisms, though useful, are no longer sufficient in providing the level of participation desired by many. A combination of microcomputer technology with Nominal Group Process (a step-by-step process ending in ranked recommendations) offers numerous possibilities for active participatory planning. Efforts at participation occurring through a well developed and defined process cannot be successful without a sensitivity to the conceptual, methodological, and pragmatic problems involved. This paper prefaces presentation of an alternative active process technique with discussion of the theoretical basis of participatory democracy and the frustration with practical implementation procedures.     

Considerations for preserve design based on the distribution of rare plants in Great Smoky Mountains National Park,USA

Park design principles are proposed on the basis of consideration and analysis of rare plant species in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Rare species richness can be used as a simple measure of preservation success. A semilogartihmic species-area model for the Smokies was used in this analysis. Species richness would increase logarathmically with expansion of the national park area. An analysis of the relationship between species richness and the distribution of geologic and topographic features in the national park was also reported. An asymptotic relation was documented for the accumulation of newly recorded rare and endangered vascular plant species in the Smokies region up to 1978. Several multiple regression linear models predicted rare vascular plant species richness in Great Smoky Mountains National Park from area and topographic variates.Preserve design criteria can be based upon species-area, environmental gradient, and natural features distribution patterns for the specific taxa and biogeographic region under consideration. In addition, natural history characteristics for particular vulnerable species must be assessed. Rather than concentrating on the preservation of undocumented immigration and extinction processes, preserve design should be directed towards protecting geographic components and gradient patterns characteristic of a region.