Uncertainties in Predictions of Surface Water Acidity using the MAGIC Model

In this study, we have used the MAGIC model together with data from the Birkenes catchment in Norway, at which 27 years of data (1974–2000) are available. We calibrated the MAGIC model to the five year observed average chemistry around 1990, and then used the data from the five year period around 1980 to refine the calibration. From 1990, forecasts were run for the different sets of inputs and parameters, and the sets of inputs and parameters were further refined using observations for the period 1996–2000. Through an automatic calibration routine, the model was calibrated a large number of times with different sets of input data to account for the uncertainties in the observed data using a Monte Carlo set-up. The results show that the uncertainty in the model predictions decreases as more observed data from different points in time are used in the model calibration. The results also show that when usingthe time series data in calibration, the distribution of the forecastchanged. The distribution of the predicted Acid Neutralisation Capacity (ANC) in the future is lower for the more refined model calibration. The 10 and 90 percentiles of predicted ANC in 2010 are –3 to 21 μeq L^-1 when only a five-year average is used for calibration, but are –7 to 9 μeq L^-1 when data from the three different time periods are used.     

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The State of Washington's Model Toxics Control Act cleanup standards, argues the author, provide the best available strategy for setting and achieving cleanup goals. Besides Protecting human health and the natural environnment, Washington's guidelines, which took effect March 1, 1991, incorporate enough flexibility to handle site-specific, finaical, and tehnological considerations. This column outlines the law's three approaches for defining cleanup levels for groundwater, surface water, air, industrial soils, and nonindustrial soils, comparing these methods with related methods in California, New Jersey, and New York.     

‘Work’ or ‘leisure’? The protestant work ethic and participation in an employee fitness program

Is a company's in-house fitness center perceived as a place to engage in ‘leisure ’activities that are distinct from ‘work’, or as an extension of normal ‘work ’activities? This exploratory study examined the possibility that Protestant Work Ethic (PWE) beliefs might influence the frequency with which employees use their company's exercise programs and facilities. If exercise programs are regarded as ‘leisure’, then PWE endorsers would likely not participate, but the reverse might be true to the extent that such programs are seen as ‘work’. A short survey was completed by 335 employees of a large Canadian corporation which maintained an in-house fitness center that had been in operation for 16 months. The sample was almost evenly divided between users and non-users of the facilities. Results indicated that PWE endorsement was positively related both to the frequency with which respondents visited their company's fitness center, and to the perception that exercise provided work-related benefits, and these findings suggest that on-the-job fitness is regarded more as a component of ‘work ’than of ‘leisure’. ‘A corporate fitness program is the hottest perk since the executive washroom ’(Hoffman and Hobson, 1984, p. 110).     

Environmental care in agricultural catchments: Toward the communicative catchment

Substantial land degradation of agricultural catchments in Australia has resulted from the importation of European farming methods and the large-scale clearing of land. Rural communities are now being encouraged by government to take responsibility for environmental care. The importance of community involvement is supported by the view that environmental problems are a function of interactions between people and their environment. It is suggested that the commonly held view that community groups cannot care for their resources is due to inappropriate social institutions rather that any inherent disability in people. The communicative catchment is developed as a vision for environmental care into the future. This concept emerges from a critique of resource management through the catchment metaphors of the reduced, mechanical, and the complex, evolving catchment, which reflect the development of systemic and people-centered approaches to environmental care. The communicative catchment is one where both community and resource managers participate collaboratively in environmental care. A methodology based on action research and systemic thinking (systemic action research) is proposed as a way of moving towards the communicative catchment of the future. Action research is a way of taking action in organizations and communities that is participative and informed by theory, while systemic thinking takes into account the interconnections and relationships between social and natural worlds. The proposed vision, methodology, and practical operating principles stem from involvement in an action research project looking at extension strategies for the implementation of total catchment management in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales.     

Multiple-resource modeling as a tool for conservation: Its applicability in Mexico

The current Mexican environmental law provides the legal basis for comprehensive land-use planning. Under the law, development of natural ecosystems must combine goals, policies, and practices towards the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of biological diversity. Thus, ecosystem manipulation must be able to counter fragmentation of natural ecosystems and isolation of natural reserves, while providing for human needs. Assessment of the potential of natural ecosystems and management impacts are required. Multiple-resource simulation is an assessment and land-use planning tool that permits managers and decision makers to comply with the law, providing a flexible, user-oriented system that can meet the needs of managers, conservationists, and researchers. A multiple-resource model and an example of how it can be applied to meet planning needs is presented for discussion.     

THE TIGER IN THE DINING ROOM: DESIGNING AND EVALUATING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE

Integrated assessments (IAs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs) arerecent responses to the inter-disciplinary challenges provided by complexglobal environmental issues such as atmospheric change. This paper discussesan array of integrated assessments, providing an overview of the role of IAsas bridges or foundations for epistemic communities. Formal as well associal, political, and ethical issues are presented. As well as a definition of anIA and an IAM, different forms and approaches of current or proposed IAsare reviewed. Particular stress is laid on the need to maintain the integrity ofthe diverse components of an IA. Finally, reference is made to the need tounderstand the underlying ethical and normative concerns that have promotedthe current interest in IA.     

使用罗斯比中心海洋模型检测波罗的海次盆地的周转时间

尤其在判断气候变化可能带来的影响时,事实证明有必要对受到显著的外部影响的有限海域的水更新速度进行评估.随SWECLIM项目一起,上述工作已在波罗的海的两个生态敏感的次盆地(即里加湾和格但斯克湾)中开展.为此目的,我们已分别以质量平衡收支和拉格朗日轨迹线为基础,采用了两种方法上不同的做法.与采用拉格朗日技术获取的结果相比,事实证明,在作为一个在形态上受到极大约束的盆地的里加湾中,使用这种箱状模型方法非常合适,而在将它用于以更加开阔的地形条件为特点的格但斯克湾时却表现出一些不足.     

从亚马孙泛滥平原森林中获取林产品的经济重要性

秘鲁亚马孙流域的农民从事农业,同时从天然林,河流和湖泊中获取各种各样的产品,他们多样化的生活方式包括捕鱼,狞猎和采集植物产品.在2个泛滥平原的村庄里,我们已经收集了一年的资料对当地农业经济与为满足生活基本需求和商业贸易的林业经济进行比较.此研究中的林产品包括动物产品(狞猎和捕鱼)和植物产品(木材和非木材).结果表明为了生活需要而获取的林产品尤其是鱼,是当地经济的支柱.获取林产品的日净收入高于种植和非熟练工人正常的日工资收入,这说明在实施任何土地开发利用的决策之前对社会经济情况进行全面的调查研究显得尤为重要.每公顷天然林可获取林产品的价值为平均每年13美元,平均每户可利用的天然林面积为113hm2.如果把农业产出也计算在内的话,每公顷土地的总产值(包括农业和林业)就上升到每年21美元.     

莫桑比克的海洋生物学研究:过去、现在及未来

本文概述了莫桑比克包括渔业在内的海洋生物学研究的发展情况.莫桑比克的海岸线约为3000km,海洋的生物资源在莫桑比克的社会中起着重要的作用,主要是作为人们的蛋白质来源以及收入和出口创汇的来源.