Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem)

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM₁₀ observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM₁₀]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM₁₀] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model’s erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM₁₀] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model’s performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM₁₀] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM₁₀] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM₁₀] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM₁₀], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for.

Implications: While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered “natural”; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.     

On the crucial importance of a small bird: The ecosystem services of the little auk (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alle alle</Emphasis>) population in Northwest Greenland in a long-term perspective

The little auk is the most numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and its most important breeding area is the eastern shores of the North Water polynya. Here, a population of an estimated 33 million pairs breeds in huge colonies and significantly shapes the ecosystem. Archaeological remains in the colonies document that the little auk has been harvested over millennia. Anthropological research discloses how the little auk has a role both as social engineer and as a significant resource for the Inughuit today. The hunting can be practiced without costly equipment, and has no gender and age discrimination in contrast to the dominant hunt for marine mammals. Little auks are ecological engineers in the sense that they transport vast amounts of nutrients from sea to land, where the nutrients are deposited as guano. Here, the fertilized vegetation provides important foraging opportunities for hares, geese, fox, reindeer, and the introduced muskox. We estimate that the relative muskox density is ten times higher within 1 km of little auk fertilized vegetation hotspots.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Who shapes local climate policy? Unpicking governance arrangements in English and German cities

A new framework for analysing subnational policymaking is applied to climate governance in the ‘twin towns’ of Newcastle upon Tyne and Gelsenkirchen. Low levels of resource interdependence between central and local government in England mean that Newcastle Council has to rely heavily on other horizontal actors to achieve its climate objectives. In contrast, Gelsenkirchen Council receives substantial support from higher tiers of government, which gives it greater control over policymaking within the locality. Greater independence between tiers of government can make it more difficult for subnational bodies to adopt the kind of ambitious policies that may be necessary to combat wicked and/or significant policy challenges such as climate change. Instead, interdependent ‘joint-decision’ systems, which facilitate mutual support across tiers of government, may be better equipped to ensure that subnational public bodies have the capacity to act appropriately.     

Handling the phosphorus paradox in agriculture and natural ecosystems: Scarcity,necessity, and burden of P

This special issue of Ambio compiles a series of contributions made at the 8th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW8), held in September 2016 in Rostock, Germany. The introducing overview article summarizes major published scientific findings in the time period from IPW7 (2015) until recently, including presentations from IPW8. The P issue was subdivided into four themes along the logical sequence of P utilization in production, environmental, and societal systems: (1) Sufficiency and efficiency of P utilization, especially in animal husbandry and crop production; (2) P recycling: technologies and product applications; (3) P fluxes and cycling in the environment; and (4) P governance. The latter two themes had separate sessions for the first time in the International Phosphorus Workshops series; thus, this overview presents a scene-setting rather than an overview of the latest research for these themes. In summary, this paper details new findings in agricultural and environmental P research, which indicate reduced P inputs, improved management options, and provide translations into governance options for a more sustainable P use.     

Life cycle of PCBs and contamination of the environment and of food products from animal origin

This report gives a summary of the historic use, former management and current release of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Germany and assesses the impact of the life cycle of PCBs on the contamination of the environment and of food products of animal origin. In Germany 60,000 t of PCBs were used in transformers, capacitors or as hydraulic oils. The use of PCB oils in these “closed applications”, has been banned in Germany in 2000. Thirty to 50% of these PCBs were not appropriately managed. In West Germany, 24,000 t of PCBs were used in open applications, mainly as additive (plasticiser, flame retardant) in sealants and paints in buildings and other construction. The continued use in open applications has not been banned, and in 2013, an estimated more than 12,000 t of PCBs were still present in buildings and other constructions. These open PCB applications continuously emit PCBs into the environment with an estimated release of 7–12 t per year. This amount is in agreement with deposition measurements (estimated to 18 t) and emission estimates for Switzerland. The atmospheric PCB releases still have an relevant impact on vegetation and livestock feed. In addition, PCBs in open applications on farms are still a sources of contamination for farmed animals. Furthermore, the historic production, use, recycling and disposal of PCBs have contaminated soils along the lifecycle. This legacy of contaminated soils and contaminated feed, individually or collectively, can lead to exceedance of maximum levels in food products from animals. In beef and chicken, soil levels of 5 ng PCB-TEQ/kg and for chicken with high soil exposure even 2 ng PCB-TEQ/kg can lead to exceedance of EU limits in meat and eggs. Areas at and around industries having produced or used or managed PCBs, or facilities and areas where PCBs were disposed need to be assessed in respect to potential contamination of food-producing animals. For a large share of impacted land, management measures applicable on farm level might be sufficient to continue with food production. Open PCB applications need to be inventoried and better managed. Other persistent and toxic chemicals used as alternatives to PCBs, e.g. short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs), should be assessed in the life cycle for exposure of food-producing animals and humans.     

A case study for a cost-benefit-based,stepwise optimization of thermo-chemical WAS pre-treatment for anaerobic digestion

Waste-activated sludge (WAS) may be considered a resource generated by wastewater treatment plants and used for biogas-generation but it requires pre-treatment (PT) for enhanced biogas-yields and reduced WAS disposal costs. To date, a number of studies on the optimization of such PT focused on improved biogas yields but neglected inferred energy and resource consumption. Here, we aimed to identify the most promising thermo-chemical PT-strategy in terms of net energy output and cost-efficiency by optimizing PT temperature and the amount and sort of the alkaline reagent used. We compared methane-potentials and disposal costs of untreated and treated WAS and conducted an annual cost-benefit calculation. We defined 70 °C and 0.04 M NaOH as ideal PT-conditions being both, low-energy demanding and efficient. Applying these conditions, enhanced biogas-yields and improved dewaterability led to reduced electricity and disposal costs of 22 and 27%, respectively, resulting in savings of approx. 28% of the yearly WAS-related expenditures of a wastewater treatment plant. Despite multiple benefits in running costs, the implementation of WAS-PT was not recommendable in the presented case study due to high investment costs.

     

Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.