Arsenism Clinical Stages and their Relation with Hair Arsenic Concentration of Residents of Bayinmaodao Rural District, Inner Mongolia, China

The clinical skin lesions of arsenism in men and women in Bayinmaodao rural district in Inner Mongolia, Peoples Republic of China, have been examined by doctors, and their hair and drinking water samples analysed for arsenic by hydride generation and ICP-AES. Altogether 311 arsenism patients with a 15.53% prevalence rate for the district were recorded. The disease prevalence rate was positively related to population, age, and their exposure to elevated arsenic concentrations in the drinking water from 1983 when new wells were dug and drinking of surface water was abandoned. Hyperkeratosis was the most serious skin lesion with the highest occurrence rate, then depigmentation and pigmentation in decreasing order. With increasing severity of the disease, ranging from skin lesion with single hyperkeratosis 1° to hyperkeratosis 3° with depigmentation 3° and pigmentation 3°, the results showed that arsenic concentrations in head hair had increased. Arsenic concentrations in hair were positively correlated with the arsenic concentrations in drinking water obtained from local wells.     

Geographic Range Fragmentation and Abundance in Neotropical Migratory Birds

Populations of neotropical migrant landbirds have experienced significant declines in recent years. We investigated potential consequences of these declines by examining the relationship between abundance and fragmentation of geographic ranges of species on the North American breeding grounds. We estimated areograpbic fragmentation using the box dimension of a species' geographic range and demographic fragmentation using the fractal dimension of the semivariance function calculated from samples of population abundance across species' geographic ranges. We found a negative relationship between average abundance and demographic fragmentation for neotropical migrants, but not for residents. We also showed that demographic fragmentation and areographic fragmentation are inversely related for residents, but not for neotropical migrants. These results imply that neotropical migrants may be more sensitive to extinction than are residents.     

Effects of Social Structure and Prey Dynamics on Extinction Risk in Gray Wolves

Extinction models based on diffusion theory generally fail to incorporate two important aspects of population biology—social structure and prey dynamics. We include these aspects in an individual-based extinction model for small, isolated populations of the gray wolf (Canis lupus). Our model predicts mean times to extinction significantly longer than those predicted by more general (diffusion) models. According to our model, an isolated population of 50 wolves has a 95% chance of surviving just 9 years and only a 30% chance of surviving beyond 100 years. Reflecting the influence of social structure, a wolf population initially comprising 50 individuals is expected to persist only a few years longer, on average (71 years), than is a population initially comprising just a single reproductive pair (62 years). In contrast, substantially greater average prey abundance leads to dramatically longer expected persistence times. Autocorrelated prey dynamics result in a more complex distribution of extinction times than predicted by many extinction models. We contend that demographic stochasticity may pose the greatest threat to small, isolated wolf populations, although environmental stochasticity and genetic effects may compound this threat. Our work highlights the importance of considering social structure and resource dynamics in the development of population viability analyses.     

Robust population management under uncertainty for structured population models.

Structured population models are increasingly used in decision making, but typically have many entries that are unknown or highly uncertain. We present an approach for the systematic analysis of the effect of uncertainties on long-term population growth or decay. Many decisions for threatened and endangered species are made with poor or no information. We can still make decisions under these circumstances in a manner that is highly defensible, even without making assumptions about the distribution of uncertainty, or limiting ourselves to discussions of single, infinitesimally small changes in the parameters. Suppose that the model (determined by the data) for the population in question predicts long-term growth. Our goal is to determine how uncertain the data can be before the model loses this property. Some uncertainties will maintain long-term growth, and some will lead to long-term decay. The uncertainties are typically structured, and can be described by several parameters. We show how to determine which parameters maintain long-term growth. We illustrate the advantages of the method by applying it to a Peregrine Falcon population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently decided to allow minimal harvesting of Peregrine Falcons after their recent removal from the Endangered Species List. Based on published demographic rates, we find that an asymptotic growth rate lambda > 1 is guaranteed with 5% harvest rate up to 3% error in adult survival if no two-year-olds breed, and up to 11% error if all two-year-olds breed. If a population growth rate of 3% or greater is desired, the acceptable error in adult survival decreases to between 1% and 6% depending of the proportion of two-year-olds that breed. These results clearly show the interactions between uncertainties in different parameters, and suggest that a harvest decision at this stage may be premature without solid data on adult survival and the frequency of breeding by young adults.     

Germination and seedling development of switchgrass and smooth bromegrass exposed to 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene

It is estimated that explosives contaminate approximately 0.82 million cubic metres of soil at former military installations throughout the US; major contaminants often include 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) and its degradation products. At some sites, phytoremediation may be a viable option to incineration or other costly remediation treatments. Grasses may be particularly suited for remediation because of their growth habit and adaptability to a wide range of soil and climate conditions. We characterized the effects of TNT on germination and early seedling development of switchgrass and smooth bromegrass to evaluate their potential use on contaminated sites. Switchgrass and smooth bromegrass seeds were germinated in nutrient-free agar containing 0 to 60 mg TNT litre(-1). Smooth bromegrass germination decreased as TNT concentration increased, while switchgrass germination was unaffected by TNT. Concentrations up to 15 mg TNT litre(-1) did not affect switchgrass root growth rate, but bromegrass root growth was reduced at TNT concentrations above 7.5 mg litre(-1). At 7.5 mg TNT litre(-1), however, shoot growth rate was reduced in both species. Examination at 20-fold magnification revealed switchgrass radicles were unaffected by TNT, while smooth bromegrass radicles appeared slightly swollen. Results indicate switchgrass is more tolerant of TNT than smooth bromegrass, but the establishment of both species may be limited to soil containing less than 50 mg kg(-1) of extractable TNT.     

Evaluation of multisectional and two-section particulate matter photochemical grid models in the Western United States

Version 4.10s of the comprehensive air-quality model with extensions (CAMx) photochemical grid model has been developed, which includes two options for representing particulate matter (PM) size distribution: (1) a two-section representation that consists of fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) modes that has no interactions between the sections and assumes all of the secondary PM is fine; and (2) a multisectional representation that divides the PM size distribution into N sections (e.g., N = 10) and simulates the mass transfer between sections because of coagulation, accumulation, evaporation, and other processes. The model was applied to Southern California using the two-section and multisection representation of PM size distribution, and we found that allowing secondary PM to grow into the coarse mode had a substantial effect on PM concentration estimates. CAMx was then applied to the Western United States for the 1996 annual period with a 36-km grid resolution using both the two-section and multisection PM representation. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Regional Modeling for Aerosol and Deposition (REMSAD) models were also applied to the 1996 annual period. Similar model performance was exhibited by the four models across the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network monitoring networks. All four of the models exhibited fairly low annual bias for secondary PM sulfate and nitrate but with a winter overestimation and summer underestimation bias. The CAMx multisectional model estimated that coarse mode secondary sulfate and nitrate typically contribute <10% of the total sulfate and nitrate when averaged across the more rural IMPROVE monitoring network.     

Simulated effects of dryland cropping intensification on soil organic matter and greenhouse gas exchanges using the DAYCENT ecosystem model

We present evidence to show that DAYCENT can reliably simulate soil C levels, crop yields, and annual trace gas fluxes for various soils. DAYCENT was applied to compare the net greenhouse gas fluxes for soils under different land uses. To calculate net greenhouse gas flux we accounted for changes in soil organic C, the C equivalents of N2O emissions and CH4 uptake, and the CO2 costs of N fertilizer production. Model results and data show that dryland soils that are depleted of C due to conventional till winter wheat fallow cropping can store C upon conversion to no till, by reducing the fallow period, or by reversion to native vegetation. However, model results suggest that dryland agricultural soils will still be net sources of greenhouse gases although the magnitude of the source can be significantly reduced and yields can be increased upon conversion to no till annual cropping.     

Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA

We quantified the distribution of tropospheric ozone in topographically complex western Washington state, USA (total area approximately 6000 km(2)), using passive ozone samplers along nine river drainages to measure ozone exposure from near sea level to high-elevation mountain sites. Weekly average ozone concentrations were higher with increasing distance from the urban core and at higher elevations, increasing a mean of 1.3 ppbv per 100 m elevation gain for all mountain transects. Weekly average ozone concentrations were generally highest in Cascade Mountains drainages east and southeast of Seattle (maximum=55-67 pbv) and in the Columbia River Gorge east of Portland (maximum=59 ppbv), and lowest in the western Olympic Peninsula (maximum=34 ppbv). Higher ozone concentrations in the Cascade Mountains and Columbia River locations downwind of large cities indicate that significant quantities of ozone and ozone precursors are being transported eastward toward rural wildland areas by prevailing westerly winds. In addition, temporal (week to week) variation in ozone distribution is synchronous within and between all drainages sampled, which indicates that there is regional coherence in air pollution detectable with weekly averages. These data provide insight on large-scale spatial variation of ozone distribution in western Washington, and will help regulatory agencies optimize future monitoring networks and identify locations where human health and natural resources could be at risk.