Population Persistence in Florida Torreya: Comparing Modeled Projections of a Declining Coniferous Tree

Abstract: The Florida torreya (   Torreya taxifolia ) is a coniferous tree endemic to a 35-km stretch of bluffs and ravines along the east side of the Apalachicola River in northern Florida and southern Georgia. This formerly locally abundant tree has declined as a result of disease during the 1950s and is on the U.S. endangered species list. With no seed production in the wild, this species is headed toward extinction. We conducted a survey on roughly 200 trees from 1988 to 1996 and used these data to estimate the likelihood of population persistence during the next several decades. We compared a stage-class transition matrix model ( RAMAS) and an individual-based stochastic model ( TORSIM) of growth and mortality to project future populations. Given the current lack of seed production in the wild, all models predict extinction. The question of concern is the imminence of this predicted extinction. Differing predicted times to extinction would suggest different immediate management recommendations. Both models predicted an over 90% likelihood of persistence during the next 50 years. Predictions differed in that the transition matrix model was less optimistic than the individual-based model regarding persistence. Model sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust to significant decreases in growth and sprouting probabilities. Submodels identified different persistence likelihoods in different populations. Nonetheless, unless management of the population can facilitate maturation and seed production, extinction of this species in the wild is inevitable.     

A guide to using the internet to monitor and quantify the wildlife trade

The unrivaled growth in e-commerce of animals and plants presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor wildlife trade to inform conservation, biosecurity, and law enforcement. Using the internet to quantify the scale of the wildlife trade (volume and frequency) is a relatively recent and rapidly developing approach that lacks an accessible framework for locating relevant websites and collecting data. We produced an accessible guide for internet-based wildlife trade surveillance. We detailed a repeatable method involving a systematic internet search, with search engines, to locate relevant websites and content. For data collection, we highlight web-scraping technology as an efficient way to collect data in an automated fashion at regularly timed intervals. Our guide is applicable to the multitude of trade-based contexts because researchers can tailor search keywords for specific taxa or derived products and locations of interest. We provide information for working with the diversity of websites used in wildlife trade. For example, to locate relevant content on social media (e.g., posts or groups), each social media platform should be examined individually via the site's internal search engine. A key advantage of using the internet to study wildlife trade is the relative ease of access to an increasing amount of trade-related data. However, not all wildlife trade occurs online and it may occur on unobservable sections of the internet.     

Evolution of extreme-mating behaviour: patterns of extrapair paternity in a species with forced extrapair copulation

Sexual conflict can result in the evolution of extreme mating strategies, including forced copulation. Forced extrapair copulation (FEPC) is generally rare among birds, but is common in re-introduced populations of the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a socially monogamous, New Zealand endemic, endangered passerine. The aim of this study was to understand the patterns of extrapair paternity in a population where the majority of EPC is forced and to examine the factors, in particular female-specific, influencing the proportion of offspring fathered by extrapair males (EPP—extrapair paternity) and the number of males siring extrapair offspring within a brood (EPM) in this species. Using 8 years of comprehensive paternity, life-history and demographic information for 485 breeding attempts, we show that the frequency of EPP is dependent on (1) social male and female age, (2) the month the female fledged, (3) breeding density and (4) whether it was their first or second reproductive event of the season. In addition, we show that both EPP and EPM are negatively associated with breeding synchrony and clutch size is the most important predictor of EPM. Understanding the drivers of EPP and EPM in species with FECP is important because these are strong determinants of variance in reproductive success and the maintenance of extreme mating behaviour.     

Ocean fertilization for geoengineering: A review of effectiveness,environmental impacts and emerging governance

Dangerous climate change is best avoided by drastically and rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, geoengineering options are receiving attention on the basis that additional approaches may also be necessary. Here we review the state of knowledge on large-scale ocean fertilization by adding iron or other nutrients, either from external sources or via enhanced ocean mixing. On the basis of small-scale field experiments carried out to date and associated modelling, the maximum benefits of ocean fertilization as a negative emissions technique are likely to be modest in relation to anthropogenic climate forcing. Furthermore, it would be extremely challenging to quantify with acceptable accuracy the carbon removed from circulation on a long term basis, and to adequately monitor unintended impacts over large space and time-scales. These and other technical issues are particularly problematic for the region with greatest theoretical potential for the application of ocean fertilization, the Southern Ocean. Arrangements for the international governance of further field-based research on ocean fertilization are currently being developed, primarily under the London Convention/London Protocol.     

Support for environmental protection: an integration of ideological-consistency and information-deficit models

The divergent roles of education in predicting environmental support among liberals, conservatives, and moderates in the United States are explained by integrating ideological-consistency and information-deficit models. Increased political polarization among elites has led to divergent environmental positions advocated by liberal and conservative political and media leaders; it was predicted that education would increase public attention to these elite cues and, consistent with the ideological-consistency model, increased education would lead to attitudes in line with consensual positions endorsed by party elites. Across two nationally representative data sets, higher levels of education were associated with stronger environmental support among liberals and weaker environmental support among conservatives. Moderates were predicted to have fewer elite cues on which to base their attitudes; consistent with the information-deficit model, higher levels of education among moderates were associated with strengthened environmental support. A moderated-mediation model supported the differential application of these two theories.     

A STRIP MODEL APPROACH TO PARAMETERIZE A COUPLED GREEN‐AMPT KINEMATIC WAVE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Infiltration processes at the plot scale are often described and modeled using a single effective hydraulic conductivity (Kg) value. This can lead to errors in runoff and erosion prediction. An integrated field measurement and modeling study was conducted to evaluate: (1) the relationship among rainfall intensity, spatially variable soil and vegetation characteristics, and infiltration processes; and (2) how this relationship could be modeled using Green and Ampt and a spatially distributed hydrologic model. Experiments were conducted using a newly developed variable intensity rainfall simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots in a rangeland watershed in southeastern Arizona. Rainfall application rates varied between 50 and 200 mm/hr. Results of the rainfall simulator experiments showed that the observed hydrologic response changed with changes in rainfall intensity and that the response varied with antecedent moisture condition. A distributed process based hydrologic simulation model was used to model the plots at different levels of hydrologic complexity. The measurement and simulation model results show that the rainfall runoff relationship cannot be accurately described or modeled using a single Kg value at the plot scale. Multi‐plane model configurations with infiltration parameters based on soil and plot characteristics resulted in a significant improvement over single‐plane configurations.     

Allometric exponents do not support a universal metabolic allometry

The debate about the value of the allometric scaling exponent (b) relating metabolic rate to body mass (metabolic rate = a x mass(b)) is ongoing, with published evidence both for and against a 3/4-power scaling law continuing to accumulate. However, this debate often revolves around a dichotomous distinction between the 3/4-power exponent predicted by recent models of nutrient distribution networks and a 2/3 exponent predicted by Euclidean surface-area-to-volume considerations. Such an approach does not allow for the possibility that there is no single "true" exponent. In the present study, we conduct a meta-analysis of 127 interspecific allometric exponents to determine whether there is a universal metabolic allometry or if there are systematic differences between taxa or between metabolic states. This analysis shows that the effect size of mass on metabolic rate is significantly heterogeneous and that, on average, the effect of mass on metabolic rate is stronger for endotherms than for ectotherms. Significant differences between scaling exponents were also identified between ectotherms and endotherms, as well as between metabolic states (e.g., rest, field, and exercise), a result that applies to b values estimated by ordinary least squares, reduced major axis, and phylogenetically correct regression models. The lack of support for a single exponent model suggests that there is no universal metabolic allometry and represents a significant challenge to any model that predicts only a single value of b.     

Chemical trends in background air quality and the ionic composition of precipitation for the period 1980-2004 from samples collected at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry, Ireland

A major Irish study, based upon more than 8000 samples collected over the measurement period of 22 years, for sulfur dioxide (SO2-S), sulfate (SO4-S) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2-N) concentrations (microg m(-3)) within air, and the ionic composition of precipitation samples based on sodium (Na+), potassium (K+), magnesium (Mg2+), calcium (Ca2+), chloride (Cl-), sulfate (SO4-S), non-sea salt sulfate (nssSO4-S), ammonium (NH4-N), and nitrate (NO3-N) weighted mean concentrations (mg l(-1)), has been completed. For the air samples, the sulfur dioxide and sulfate concentrations decreased over the sampling period (1980-2004) by 75% and 45%, respectively, whereas no significant trend was observed for nitrogen dioxide. The highest concentrations for sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrogen dioxide were associated with wind originating from the easterly and northeasterly directions i.e. those influenced by Irish and European sources. The lowest concentrations were associated with the westerly directions i.e. for air masses originating in the North Atlantic region. This was further verified with the use of backward (back) trajectory analysis, which allowed tracing the movement of air parcels using the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-40 re-analysis data. High non-sea salt sulfate levels were being associated with air masses originating from Europe (easterlies) with lower levels from the Atlantic (westerlies). With the precipitation data, analysis of the non-sea salt sulfate concentrations showed a decrease by 47% since the measurements commenced.     

Tracking acid mine-drainage in Southeast Arizona using GIS and sediment delivery models

This study investigates the application of models traditionally used to estimate erosion and sediment deposition to assess the potential risk of water quality impairment resulting from metal-bearing materials related to mining and mineralization. An integrated watershed analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based tools was undertaken to examine erosion and sediment transport characteristics within the watersheds. Estimates of stream deposits of sediment from mine tailings were related to the chemistry of surface water to assess the effectiveness of the methodology to assess the risk of acid mine-drainage being dispersed downstream of abandoned tailings and waste rock piles. A watershed analysis was preformed in the Patagonia Mountains in southeastern Arizona which has seen substantial mining and where recent water quality samples have reported acidic surface waters. This research demonstrates an improvement of the ability to predict streams that are likely to have severely degraded water quality as a result of past mining activities.