Assessing plausible rates of population growth in humpback whales from life-history data

The rate of growth of any population is a quantity of interest in conservation and management and is constrained by biological factors. In this study, recent data on life-history parameters influencing rates of population growth in humpback whales, including survival, age at first parturition and calving rate are reviewed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute a distribution of rates of increase (ROIs) taking into account uncertainty in biological parameter estimates. Two approaches for computing juvenile survival are proposed, which taken into account along with other life-history data, resulted in the following estimates of the rate of population growth: Approach A: mean of 7.3%/year (95% CI = 3.5–10.5%/year) and Approach B: mean of 8.6%/year (95% CI = 5.0–11.4%/year). It is proposed that the upper 99% quantile of the resulting distribution of the ROI for Approach B (11.8%/year) be established as the maximum plausible ROI for humpback whales and be used in population assessment of the species. Possible sources of positive and negative biases in the present estimates are presented and include measurement error in estimation of life-history parameters, changes in the environment within the period these quantities are measured, density dependence or other natural factors. However, it is difficult to evaluate potential biases without additional data. The methods presented in this study can be applied to other species for which life-history parameters are available and are useful in assessing plausibility in the estimation of population growth rates from time series of abundance estimates.     

Sex-specific fitness consequences of dispersal in Siberian jays

In most birds, natal dispersal is female-biased, but the selective pressures leading to this pattern have rarely been explored with comprehensive data on lifetime reproductive success. In territorial birds, the benefit of philopatry should be higher for males than for females when males establish territories for which knowledge about the local environment is important. As females may use male characteristics for mate choice, and hence indirectly for territory choice, the benefit from the direct knowledge of the local environment may be lower for females than males. We tested this hypothesis using data from a long-term study of group living corvids, the Siberian jays (Perisoreus infaustus). In this species, the socially dominant offspring delay dispersal while the sub-dominant offspring leave the family group directly after reaching independence. Our results show that natal dispersal distance (a proxy for local knowledge) was related to sex and dispersal timing (a proxy for “quality”): Females and early dispersers traveled further on average than males and delayed dispersers. Furthermore, dispersal distance and timing were negatively related to the number of recruits produced over an individual’s lifetime in males, but not in females. Hence, the results support the hypothesis that the female-biased natal dispersal found in this and other bird species may come about through higher lifetime reproductive success of philopatric males than females.     

Response of “Alamo” switchgrass tissue chemistry and biomass to nitrogen fertilization in West Tennessee,USA

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a perennial, warm-season grass that has been identified as a potential biofuel feedstock over a large part of North America. We examined above- and belowground responses to nitrogen fertilization in “Alamo” switchgrass grown in West Tennessee, USA. The fertilizer study included a spring and fall sampling of 5-year old switchgrass grown under annual applications of 0, 67, and 202 kg N ha^?1 (as ammonium nitrate). Fertilization changed switchgrass biomass allocation as indicated by root:shoot ratios. End-of-growing season root:shoot ratios (mean ± SE) declined significantly (P ≤ 0.05) at the highest fertilizer nitrogen treatment (2.16 ± 0.08, 2.02 ± 0.18, and 0.88 ± 0.14, respectively, at 0, 67, and 202 kg N ha^?1). Fertilization also significantly increased above- and belowground nitrogen concentrations and decreased plant C:N ratios. Data are presented for coarse live roots, fine live roots, coarse dead roots, fine dead roots, and rhizomes. At the end of the growing season, there was more carbon and nitrogen stored in belowground biomass than aboveground biomass. Fertilization impacted switchgrass tissue chemistry and biomass allocation in ways that potentially impact soil carbon cycle processes and soil carbon storage.     

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor, Abies magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, and Pinus lambertiana, in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots. In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor, our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana, mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity. Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana, spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor, although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.     

The consequences of failure should be considered in siting geologic carbon sequestration projects

Geologic carbon sequestration is the injection of anthropogenic CO₂ into deep geologic formations where the CO₂ is intended to remain indefinitely. If successfully implemented, geologic carbon sequestration will have little or no impact on terrestrial ecosystems aside from the mitigation of climate change. However, failure of a geologic carbon sequestration site, such as large-scale leakage of CO₂ into a potable groundwater aquifer, could cause impacts that would require costly remediation measures. Governments are attempting to develop regulations for permitting geologic carbon sequestration sites to ensure their safety and effectiveness. At present, these regulations focus largely on decreasing the probability of failure. In this paper we propose that regulations for the siting of early geologic carbon sequestration projects should emphasize limiting the consequences of failure because consequences are easier to quantify than failure probability.     

A simulation model of population dynamics of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella

A simulation model has been developed that predicts numbers and phenology of a population of codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), in an apple orchard. The model is a general insect population model based on the interative-cohort technique. It operates at two time scales: a fine time scale (1 h) for temperature-dependent physiological processes, and a coarse time scale (1 day) for population processes. The population is divided into a specifiable number of stages, and each stage is described by four process functions, which may be of any convenient mathematical form, and may differ among stages. Each stage is divided into cohorts of individuals born or emerged on the same day, and individuals within a cohort are considered probabilistically identical. The model simulates the processes of development, transition among stages, and mortality by using probability distributions representing these processes, and incorporates the effects of pesticides on mortality of the insect. Model output was evaluated by comparison with records of pheromone trap catches of codling moths in commercial apple orchards in North Carolina. The model predicts timing of the first spring flight well, depending on the initial age distribution used. Time between peaks of numbers of adults in the model is about 15 days longer than the observed period between flight peaks in orchards. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this discrepancy may be related to differences between measured ambient temperature and tree canopy temperature. The sensitivities of numbers of insects produced by the model, and timing of peaks in numbers present were determined for each of the parameters in the model. The parameters with greatest effect on the model output were those which control the locations of developmental rate functions and survival functions on the temperature scale. In the model, pesticides had a much larger effect on numbers of adults present than records of moths caught in pheromone traps indicate actually occurred, suggesting that moths caught in traps in commercial orchards where effective pesticides are applied may be largely immigrants.     

Multiple-resource modeling as a tool for conservation: Its applicability in Mexico

The current Mexican environmental law provides the legal basis for comprehensive land-use planning. Under the law, development of natural ecosystems must combine goals, policies, and practices towards the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of biological diversity. Thus, ecosystem manipulation must be able to counter fragmentation of natural ecosystems and isolation of natural reserves, while providing for human needs. Assessment of the potential of natural ecosystems and management impacts are required. Multiple-resource simulation is an assessment and land-use planning tool that permits managers and decision makers to comply with the law, providing a flexible, user-oriented system that can meet the needs of managers, conservationists, and researchers. A multiple-resource model and an example of how it can be applied to meet planning needs is presented for discussion.     

A sustainable sulfate process to produce TiO2 pigments

Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) is a widely used white pigment. TiO₂ production in 2006 was about 1,400,000 metric tons in the USA. The two major processes to manufacture TiO₂ are the chloride process and the sulfate process. Currently, the TiO₂ industry finds the waste generated in the chloride process less than the waste generated in the sulfate process in its present design, despite generating large quantities of process-related carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. As a consequence, the sulfate process appears less economical, notably due to the production of green vitriol, FeSO₄·7H₂O, as a major waste. Here, we describe a more sustainable sulfate process based on an earlier study on thermal decomposition of iron(II) sulfates. In the sustainable sulfate process, FeSO₄·7H₂O waste is used for greener production of sulfuric acid, H₂SO₄, used in turn for the digestion of ilmenite. Theoretical and actual yields of waste byproducts per metric ton of TiO₂ produced are used to show the environmental and economic advantages of the sustainable sulfate process.