Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land‐use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species’ habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species’ current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst‐case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land‐use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse.     

Environmental Contaminants in Blood, Hair, and Tissues of Ocelots from the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, 1986–1997

The ocelot (Felis pardalis) isan endangered neotropical cat distributed within asmall range in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), inTexas, U.S.A. Studies of the impacts of environmentalcontaminants in wild cats are few. Approximately onefourth of the estimated population (about 100) ofocelots in the LRGV was sampled to evaluate theimpacts of chlorinated pesticides, polychlorinatedbiphenyls, and trace elements on the population. Hairwas collected from 32 ocelots trapped between 1986–1992,and blood was collected from 20 ocelots trappedbetween 1993–1997. A few blood samples were obtainedfrom individuals recaptured two or three times. Tissue samples from 4 road-killed ocelots were alsoanalyzed. DDE, PCBs, and Hg were some of the mostcommon contaminants detected in hair and blood. MeanHg levels in hair ranged from 0.5 to 1.25 g g^-1 dw,Se from 1.5 to 3.48 g g^-1 dw, and Pb from 0.56 to26.8 g g^-1 dw. Mean DDE concentrations in plasma ranged from 0.005 g g^-1 ww to 0.153 g g^-1 ww, and PCBs ranged from 0.006 g g^-1 ww to 0.092 g g^-1 ww. Mean Hg levels in red blood cells rangedfrom 0.056 g g^-1 dw to 0.25 g g^-1 dw. Concentrations of DDE, PCBs, or Hg, did not increasesignificantly with age, although the highestconcentrations of DDE and Hg were found in olderanimals. Overall, concentrations of DDE, PCBs, and Hgwere low and at levels that currently do not pose anythreat to health or survival of the ocelot. This isfurther supported by good reproduction of the ocelotin the LRGV, where adult females averaged about 1.5kittens/litter. Thus, it seems that the current majorthreat to recovery of the ocelot in the LRGV may behabitat loss, although potential impacts of newgeneration pesticides, such as organophosphorus andcarbamate insecticides need further study.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.     

Effect of natural ageing on volume stability of MSW and wood waste incineration residues

This paper presents the results of a study on the effect of natural weathering on volume stability of bottom ash (BA) from municipal solid waste (MSW) and wood waste incineration. BA samples were taken at different steps of treatment (fresh, 4 weeks and 12 weeks aged) and then characterised for their chemical and mineralogical composition and for volume stability by means of the mineralogical test method (M HMVA-StB), which is part of the German quality control system for using aggregates in road construction (TL Gestein-StB 04). Changes of mineralogical composition with the proceeding of the weathering treatment were also monitored by leaching tests. At the end of the 12 weeks of treatment, almost all the considered samples resulted to be usable without restrictions in road construction with reference to the test parameter volume stability.     

A Novel Metric to Evaluate the Association Rules for Identification of Functional Dependencies in Complex Technical Infrastructures

Environment Systems and Decisions - Functional dependencies in complex technical infrastructures can cause unexpected cascades of failures, with major consequences on availability. For this reason,...     

The relation between climate change in the Mediterranean region and global warming

Regional Environmental Change - The recent (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) climate evolution in the Mediterranean region is analyzed in relation to annual mean global surface...     

Industrial point source CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission strength estimation with aircraft measurements and dispersion modelling

CO₂ remains the greenhouse gas that contributes most to anthropogenic global warming, and the evaluation of its emissions is of major interest to both research and regulatory purposes. Emission inventories generally provide quite reliable estimates of CO₂ emissions. However, because of intrinsic uncertainties associated with these estimates, it is of great importance to validate emission inventories against independent estimates. This paper describes an integrated approach combining aircraft measurements and a puff dispersion modelling framework by considering a CO₂ industrial point source, located in Biganos, France. CO₂ density measurements were obtained by applying the mass balance method, while CO₂ emission estimates were derived by implementing the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. For the latter, three meteorological initializations were used: (i) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by ECMWF reanalyses; (ii) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by CFSR reanalyses and (iii) local in situ observations. Governmental inventorial data were used as reference for all applications. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and how they affect emission estimation uncertainty were investigated. The mass balance based on aircraft measurements was quite succesful in capturing the point source emission strength (at worst with a 16% bias), while the accuracy of the dispersion modelling, markedly when using ECMWF initialization through the WRF model, was only slightly lower (estimation with an 18% bias). The analysis will help in highlighting some methodological best practices that can be used as guidelines for future experiments.     

Bioconcentration and depuration of endosulfan sulfate in mosquito fish (Gambusia affinis)

Endosulfan is an insecticide which has been widely used in agriculture. The technical grade material consists of two isomers (alpha and beta). Under natural environmental conditions, endosulfan is metabolized through oxidation and the main metabolite in the environment is endosulfan sulfate. Most ecotoxicology research has been conducted with technical grade endosulfan to determine effects on non-target aquatic organisms. Little data on the effects of endosulfan sulfate on aquatic organisms are available in the literature. This study characterizes endosulfan sulfate bioconcentration and depuration in mosquito fish (Gambusia affinis). During the study, G. affinis was exposed to an environmentally relevant endosulfan sulfate concentration of 0.25 μg L⁻¹ for 5 weeks (uptake phase) followed by a 3-week period (depuration phase) in clean water. This study found that G. affinis bioconcentrated endosulfan sulfate. During the exposure phase, fish tissue concentrations of endosulfan sulfate increased with time up to 730 μg kg⁻¹ dw or 215 μg kg⁻¹ ww. The bioconcentration data followed Michaelis-Menten kinetics better than the one-compartment first order kinetics (1-CFOK). Using these models, the bioconcentration factors for endosulfan sulfate-exposed G. affinis were from 687 to 888  L kg⁻¹ in wet weight or 2263 to 2936 L kg⁻¹ in dry weight. During the depuration phase, endosulfan sulfate concentrations in tissue significantly decreased and the data followed first order kinetics. The half-life of endosulfan sulfate in G. affinis was about 9 d. There was no significant difference in standard length or weight between control and exposed fish. The growth data followed the von Bertalanffy growth model. However, the condition factor of exposed fish increased with time during the exposure phase.