A PROBABILISTIC BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A ZONING PROGRAM FOR FLOOD PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Various techniques, one of which is zoning, are used to control the extent of flood damage. The benefit-cost analysis of zoning programs must take into account the random nature of flooding. This paper outlines a method for determining not only the expected value of the benefit-cost ratio, but also the probability of such a zoning program being profitable. It also presents an application of the method to the assessment of the Outaouais Regional Community zoning program.     

Identifying hydrologically sensitive areas: bridging the gap between science and application

Researchers have noted that current water quality protection strategies, like nutrient management plans, lack a sound hydrological underpinning for pollutant transport processes. This is especially true for areas like the northeastern U.S. where copious research has shown that variable source area hydrology largely governs runoff generation. The goal of this study was to develop a scientifically justified method to identify the locations that generate overland flow. Furthermore, this methodology must be computationally simple enough that it can be utilized or incorporated into nutrient management plans and other established water quality tools. We specifically tested the reliability of the 'distance from a stream,'D(s), and the 'topographic index,'lambda, to predict areas with a high propensity for generating overland flow, i.e. hydrologically sensitive areas (HSA). HSAs were defined by their probability of generating runoff, P(sat), based on 30 year simulations using a physically based hydrological model. Using GIS, each location's P(sat) was correlated with D(s) and lambda. We used three Delaware Co., NY watersheds in the New York City watershed system with areas varying in size from 1.6 to 37 km2 and with forested and agricultural land uses. The topographic index gave stronger, more regionally consistent correlations with P(sat) than did D(s). Equations correlating lambda and P(sat) for each month are presented and can be used to estimate hydrological sensitivity in the region surrounding our study watersheds, i.e. in Delaware Co. This work is currently being incorporated into an Internet Mapping System to facilitate user-friendly, on-line identification of HSAs.     

Development of a solid phase microextraction (SPME) method for the sampling of VOC traces in indoor air

Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) was studied for the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in indoor air. An adsorptive PDMS/Carboxen fibre was used and an analytical methodology was developed in order to overcome competitive adsorption. Kinetics and adsorption isotherms were investigated for different sample volumes and model compounds. In order to evaluate competitive adsorption on the fibre, these compounds were studied alone and in mixture. From the results obtained, the operating conditions allowing co-adsorption of the target compounds were determined: the air sample is enclosed in a 250 mL glass bulb where the SPME fibre is exposed until adsorption equilibrium. This procedure was combined with GC/MS analysis for the identification and quantification of VOCs in indoor air. The performances were determined by using a standard gas containing 10 VOCs representative of indoor environments (acetaldehyde, acetone, BTX, alpha-pinene, trichloroethylene, alkanes). The detection limits were determined in single ion monitoring mode and for a signal to noise ratio of 3. Except acetaldehyde (6 microg m(-3)), they are all below 0.5 microg m(-3). Calibration curves are linear up to 10 micromol m(-3) for all the compounds with good correlation coefficients (above 0.99). The reproducibility ranges from 6 to 12% according to the compound. The methodology was then applied to the comparison of the VOCs content in classrooms of two different schools.     

Colloidal mobilization from soil and transport of uranium in (sub)-surface waters

An analytical methodology was developed to characterize the colloidal distribution of trace elements of interest in environmental waters sampled in a same site and enables the different colloidal distributions from waters to be compared. The purpose was to provide consistent information related to the origin and nature of colloids responsible for the transport of trace element(s). The work was motivated by the observed enhanced mobility of uranium in soil. The colloidal size continuum was investigated by a multi-technique approach involving asymmetric flow field-flow fractionation (AF4) coupled with ultraviolet spectroscopy (UV), multi angle light scattering (MALS), and atomic mass spectrometry (ICPMS). To take into consideration the size and shape variability specific to each sample, the size distributions were established from the gyration radii measured from MALS, also considering the size information from standard nanospheres fractionated by AF4. A new parameter called “shape index” was proposed. It expresses the difference in hydrodynamic behavior between analytes and spherical particles taken as reference. Under AF4 diffusion conditions, it can be considered as an evaluator of the deviation from the sphericity of the fractionated analytes. AF4-UV-MALS-ICPMS enabled the dimensional and chemical characteristics of the colloidal size continuum to be obtained. As a “proof of concept”, the developed methodology was applied at a field scale, in a reference study site. In order to have a “dynamic understanding”, the investigation was based on the joint characterization of colloids from surface waters and soil leachates from static and dynamic processes. In the water samples of the study site, the continuum of gyration radius ranged from a few nanometers up to 200 nm. Colloids containing iron, aluminum, and organic carbon were involved in the uranium transport in the soil column and surface waters. The colloidal uranium concentration in the surface water increased from the upstream location (approximately 13 ng (U) L^?1) to the downstream location (approximately 60 ng (U) L^?1).

     

Analysis of the influence of passenger vehicles front-end design on pedestrian lower extremity injuries by means of the LLMS model

Objective: This work aims at investigating the influence of some front-end design parameters of a passenger vehicle on the behavior and damage occurring in the human lower limbs when impacted in an accident.

Methods: The analysis is carried out by means of finite element analysis using a generic car model for the vehicle and the lower limbs model for safety (LLMS) for the purpose of pedestrian safety. Considering the pedestrian standardized impact procedure (as in the 2003/12/EC Directive), a parametric analysis, through a design of experiments plan, was performed. Various material properties, bumper thickness, position of the higher and lower bumper beams, and position of pedestrian, were made variable in order to identify how they influence the injury occurrence. The injury prediction was evaluated from the knee lateral flexion, ligament elongation, and state of stress in the bone structure.

Results: The results highlighted that the offset between the higher and lower bumper beams is the most influential parameter affecting the knee ligament response. The influence is smaller or absent considering the other responses and the other considered parameters. The stiffness characteristics of the bumper are, instead, more notable on the tibia. Even if an optimal value of the variables could not be identified trends were detected, with the potential of indicating strategies for improvement.

Conclusions: The behavior of a vehicle front end in the impact against a pedestrian can be improved optimizing its design. The work indicates potential strategies for improvement. In this work, each parameter was changed independently one at a time; in future works, the interaction between the design parameters could be also investigated. Moreover, a similar parametric analysis can be carried out using a standard mechanical legform model in order to understand potential diversities or correlations between standard tools and human models.     

A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides

This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers.     

Impact of clay mineral on air oxidation of PAH-contaminated soils

This work investigated the impact of a clay mineral (bentonite) on the air oxidation of the solvent extractable organic matters (EOMs) and the PAHs from contaminated soils. EOMs were isolated from two coking plant soils and mixed with silica sand or bentonite. These samples, as well as raw soils and bentonite/soil mixtures, were oxidized in air at 60 and 100 °C for 160 days. Mineralization was followed by measuring the CO₂ produced over the experiments. EOM, polycyclic aromatic compound (PAC), including PAH, contents were also determined. Oxidation led to a decrease in EOM contents and PAH concentrations, these diminutions were enhanced by the presence of bentonite. Transfer of carbon from EOM to insoluble organic matter pointed out a condensation phenomenon leading to a stabilization of the contamination. Higher mineralization rates, observed during the oxidation of the soil/bentonite mixtures, seem to indicate that this clay mineral had a positive influence on the transformation of PAC into CO₂.     

Mechanistic Virtual Modeling: Coupling a Plant Simulation Model with a Three-dimensional Plant Architecture Component

The aim of this research is to integrate plant architectural modeling or “visualization modeling” and “mechanistic” or physiologically based modeling to describe how a real plant functions using a virtual crop. Virtual crops are life-like computer representations of crops based on individual plants and including the representation of the substrate on which the plants grow. The integration of a three-dimensional expression and the mechanistic model of plant development and growth requires the knowledge of the position of the organs along the different plant axes (the topology), their sizes, their forms, and their spatial orientation. The plant simulation model simulates the topology and organ weight or length. The superposition of spatial position and the topology produces the architecture of the plant. The association between sizes and organs creates what we refer to as the plant morphological model. Both components, the architectural model and the morphology model, are detailed in this paper. Once the integration is complete, the system produces a movie-like animation that shows the plant growing. The integrated model may simulate one or several plants growing simultaneously (in parallel). Visual capabilities make the proposed system very unique as it allows users to judge the results of the simulation the same way a farmer judges the situation of the crops in real life, by visually observing the field.     

Effects of mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) on chicken germ cells cultured in vitro

In recent decades, many toxicological tests based on in vivo or in vitro models, mainly from mammalian (rat–mouse) and fish species, were used to assess the risks raised by contact or ingestion of molecules of pharmaceutical, agricultural, or natural origin. But no, or few, in vitro tests using other non-mammalian models such as bird have been explored despite their advantages: the embryonic gonads of birds have a high plasticity of development sensitive to estrogen, and sperm production is nearly two times faster than in rodents. Hence, we have established an in vitro culture of germ cells and somatic cells from chicken post-natal testis, and we have evaluated the sensitivity against the endocrine disruptor compound mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) in comparison to previous studies using rodent and human models. After 96 h of exposure in presence of 10 μM MEHP, chicken seminiferous tubules cultures present a structural alteration, a reduction in cell proliferation and in germ cells population. Apoptosis of germ and somatic cells increases in presence of 1 μM MEHP. Furthermore, MEHP does not affect inhibin B and lactate production by Sertoli cells. These results are in accordance with previous studies using rat, mice, or human culture of testicular cells and in similar range of exposures or even better sensitivity for some “end-points” (biological parameters). In conclusion, the establishment of this postnatal testicular cells culture could be considered as an alternative method to in vivo experiments frequently used for evaluating the impact on the terrestrial wildlife species. This method could be also complementary to mammal model due to the limiting number of animals used and its elevated sensitivity.