Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future

Flood damages have exhibited a rapid upward trend, both globally and in Europe, faster than population and economic growth. Hence, vigorous attempts of attribution of changes have been made. Flood risk and vulnerability tend to change over many areas, due to a range of climatic and nonclimatic impacts whose relative importance is site-specific. Flooding is a complex phenomenon and there are several generating mechanisms, among others intense and/or long-lasting precipitation, snowmelt, ice jam. Projected climate-driven changes in future flood frequency are complex, depending on the generating mechanism, e.g., increasing flood magnitudes where floods result of heavy rainfall and possibly decreasing magnitudes where floods are generated by spring snowmelt. Climate change is likely to cause an increase of the risk of riverine flooding across much of Europe. Projections of flood hazard in Europe based on climatic and hydrological models, reviewed in this paper, illustrate possible changes of recurrence of a 100-year flood (with probability of exceedance being 1-in-100 years) in Europe. What used to be a 100-year flood in the control period is projected to become either more frequent or less frequent in the future time horizon of concern. For a large part of the continent, large flooding is projected to become more commonplace in future, warmer climate. Due to the large uncertainty of climate projections, it is currently not possible to devise a scientifically-sound procedure for redefining design floods (e.g. 100-year flood) in order to adjust flood defenses. For the time being, we recommend to adjust design floods using a “climate change factor” approach.     

Comparative assessment of essential and heavy metals in fruits from different geographical origins

The aim of this investigation was to estimate and compare essential and heavy metals contents in 98 commercially available fresh fruits from different geographic regions using multivariate techniques. The concentrations of 12 elements (calcium, magnesium, potassium, sodium, phophorus, cobalt (Co), manganese, iron, chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), zinc and copper) were determined using flame atomic absorption spectrometry with deuterium-background correction. Phosphorus was determined in the form of phosphomolybdate by a spectrophotometric method. Reliability of the procedure was checked by analysis of the certified reference materials tea (NCS DC 73351), cabbage (IAEA-359) and spinach leaves (NIST-1570). Recoveries of the elements analysed varied between 85.5 and 103 %, and precisions for the reference materials were 0.13–6.08 %. Based on recommended dietary allowance and adequate intake estimated for essential elements, it was concluded that accessory fruits such as pineapples, raspberries and strawberries supply organism with the highest amounts of bioelements. Although accessory fruits were also found to be the greatest source of Ni among all the analysed fruits, in all the fruits Ni was more abundant than Cr and Co. Significant correlation coefficients (p?<?0.001, p?<?0.01 and p?<?0.05) were found between concentrations of some metals in fresh fruits. Application of ANOVA Kruskal–Wallis test and multivariate techniques such as factor analysis and cluster analysis enabled us to differentiate particular botanical families and types of fruits.     

Biomagnification of mercury in trophic relation of Great Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) and fish in the Vistula Lagoon, Poland

Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were determined by CV-AAS in selected tissues (liver, kidney, and muscle) of the Great Cormorant and some fish species (herring, ruffe, European smelt, tench, roach, Crucian carp, and Prussian carp) from the Vistula Lagoon ecosystem (Poland). Significant correlations between Hg concentrations in the kidneys and muscle of cormorants (U test, p?<?0.05) were found; levels of the metal were highest in the birds?? liver and kidneys. Total Hg concentrations in the fish decreased in the following order: roach > Prussian carp > Crucian carp > tench > European smelt > ruffe > herring. The biomagnification factor of Hg for the cormorant relative to the fish decreased in the following sequence: herring > ruffe > European smelt > tench > Crucian carp > roach = Prussian carp. It was significantly greater than unity, especially for the cormorant?Cherring trophic relationship. This implies that Hg is biomagnified in the cormorant in relation to its prey.     

Self-organizing feature map (neural networks) as a tool to select the best indicator of road traffic pollution (soil, leaves or bark of Robinia pseudoacacia L.)

Concentrations of the elements Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were measured in the leaves and bark of Robinia pseudoacacia and the soil in which it grew, in the town of Ole?nica (SW Poland) and at a control site. We selected this town because emission from motor vehicles is practically the only source of air pollution, and it seemed interesting to evaluate its influence on soil and plants. The self-organizing feature map (SOFM) yielded distinct groups of soils and R. pseudoacacia leaves and bark, depending on traffic intensity. Only the map classifying bark samples identified an additional group of highly polluted sites along the main highway from Wroc?aw to Warszawa. The bark of R. pseudoacacia seems to be a better bioindicator of long-term cumulative traffic pollution in the investigated area, while leaves are good indicators of short-term seasonal accumulation trends.     

Framing Shale Gas for Policy-Making in Poland

Despite enthusiasm about new gas reserves, shale gas has not come to Poland without controversies. This study examines how shale gas has been framed as a public issue by political and business elites, experts, local communities and civil society organizations. Through a frame analysis, we found three main frames about shale gas: shale gas as a novel economic resource, as a strategic resource for energy security and as a threat. However, only the first two frames, proposed by political and business elites, have shaped the policy process. The third frame, constructed by local actors and civil society groups, has had minimal impact. We explain this exclusion drawing on the deficit model of risk communication. This approach reveals that Polish experts, and business and political actors, during their interactions with local groups, have framed proponents of the threat frame as ‘incompetent actors’ effectively excluding the threat frame from policy processes.     

Electrosynthesis of κ-Carrageenan Complexes with Gelatin

Electrosynthesis at pH 9, 12, and 11 of -carrageenan–gelatin complexes from electrolytes containing the components at proportions varying from 1:5 to 5:1 provided complexes in the composition varying in a range from 1:10 to 1:1.8. Components were bound mainly electrostatically, although partial insolubility of complexes in 7 M aqueous urea pointed to a part of the complexes bound covalently. None of the performed tests except solubility could confirm formation of covalent complexes. The complexation of -carrageenan to gelatin significantly increased the thermal stability of carrageenan, whereas the thermal stability of gelatin increased rather insignificantly.     

Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons,phenols, and trace metals in selected soil profiles and plant bioindicators in the Holy Cross Mountains,south-central Poland

This report presents the results of PAH, phenol, and selected trace element (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, S, and Zn) determinations on detailed soil profiles and associated plant bioindicators (including lichen Hypogymnia physodes, moss Hylocomium splendens, pine Pinus sylvetris) from the three most representative habitats in the Holy Cross Mts, south-central Poland. This study is only part of a larger ongoing environmental study that includes complex sulfur isotope and element determinations in three national parks in N, central and S parts of Poland. The highest concentrations of PAHs (1887 ppb) and numerous trace elements are found in the organic horizon-O and humic horizon-A of each soil type. Different plant species and their individual tissues reveal considerable variability in the concentration of PAHs, phenols and elements examined. Most of the H. physodes thalli also reveal higher concentrations of individual hydrocarbons and some elements (including S and Zn) than their host bark. The highest concentration levels of phenols (1217 ppb) are noted in the 1-year pine needles. Most of the PAHs and elements examined seem to be of anthropogenic origin. The only exception is the distribution pattern of elements in southwestern part of the study area, which is linked to the local bedrock geochemical anomaly. The results of this study indicate that the content of PAHs, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, S and Zn in the soils and plant bioindicators examined has not changed considerably since 1998.     

The use of the barbell cluster ANOVA design for the assessment of environmental pollution: a case study, Wigierski National Park, NE Poland

This report presents an assessment of chemical variability in natural ecosystems of Wigierski National Park (NE Poland) derived from the calculation of geochemical baselines using a barbell cluster ANOVA design. This method enabled us to obtain statistically valid information with a minimum number of samples collected. Results of summary statistics are presented for elemental concentrations in the soil horizons-O (Ol + Ofh), -A and -B, 1- and 2-year old Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) needles, pine bark and Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl. (lichen) thalli, as well as pH and TOC. The scope of this study also encompassed S and C stable isotope determinations and SEM examinations on Scots pine needles. The variability for S and trace metals in soils and plant bioindicators is primarily governed by parent material lithology and to a lesser extent by anthropogenic factors. This fact enabled us to study concentrations that are close to regional background levels.     

Shell colour,temperature, (micro)habitat structure and predator pressure affect the behaviour of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cepaea nemoralis</Emphasis>

Although shell colour polymorphism of the land snail Cepaea nemoralis is a well-known phenomenon, proximate and ultimate factors driving its evolution remain uncertain. Polymorphic species show variation in behavioural responses to selective forces. Therefore, we estimated effects of various environmental factors (temperature, humidity, food availability, (micro)habitat structure and predatory pressure) on behavioural response (frequency of locomotion, climbing and hiding) of C. nemoralis morphs, in experimental and natural conditions. In the experimental part of study, the frequency of locomotion was negatively affected by temperature and the presence of food and positively influenced by the presence of light. Morphs significantly differed in behavioural responses to environmental variability. Pink mid-banded and yellow five-banded morphs climbed less often and hide in shelter more often than yellow and pink unbanded individuals when temperature was low and food was absent. Snails fed most often at moderate temperature compared to low and high temperatures. Field investigations partially confirmed differences among morphs in frequency of climbing, but not in terms of probability of hiding in sheltered sites. In natural colonies, temperature and (micro)habitat structure significantly affected frequency of climbing as well as hiding in shelter. Snails more often hid in sheltered sites where thrushes preyed on Cepaea. Tendency of unbanded morphs to climb trees may have evolved under avian predatory pressure as thrushes forage on a ground. Tendency of banded morphs to hide in sheltered sites may reflect prey preferences for cryptic background. The results implicate that differential behaviour of C. nemoralis morphs compensate for their morphological and physiological limitations of adaptation to habitat.