Mathematical Modeling of Photochemical Smog Using the PICK Method

A new method for solving the turbulent atmospheric diffusion equation has been developed based on Lagrangian mass points, or particles moving through an Eulerian grid. The method is one of a family of Particle-/n-Cell techniques but is a unique extension to incorporate the effects of turbulent diffusion based on K-theory; thus the acronym PICK.

In the three-dimensional computer-aided model, NEXUS (Numerical EXamination of Urban Smog), this method has been applied to simulation of carbon monoxide (CO) in Los Angeles. For CO the NEXUS simulation was within 20% of observed day-averaged concentrations at 12 stations and the hour-averages were also in good agreement. This model was extended to include the effects of photochemical smog in Los Angeles. The results of the photochemical simulation were also qualitatively correct due to rapid NO to NO₂ conversion in the simulation.     

A Method for Predicting the Effective Volume Resistivity of a Sodium Depleted Fly Ash Layer

Research has been conducted to develop a technique for predicting the effective volume resistivity of a fly ash layer that has been exposed to circumstances leading to a hot-side precipitator problem known as sodium depletion. Eight fly ashes, representing a major portion of U.S. coals, were evaluated by subjecting 0.5 cm ash layers to a continuously applied voltage gradient of 4 kV/cm for periods of time up to 35 days at a temperature of 350°C (662°F). Resistivity was determined at 350°C before the test started and after the long period of applied voltage used to create the sodium depleted situation. In this condition, resistivity was also determined at 280°C (536°F) for an average electric field Intensity of 4 kV/cm and immediately prior to breakdown. This experimental method can be used with any ash sample to estimate resistivity In a sodium depleted condition. But in addition, a correlation resulting from these resistivity data has been developed. This correlation Is combined with an existing technique for predicting resistivity to produce a method for calculating the expected ash layer resistivity after sodium depletion has occurred.     

Use of Energy Scenarios in Addressing the CO2 Question

A reference scenario for CO₂ emissions was developed using a model of world energy supply and demand. In the reference scenario, world GNP and world energy demand increase at average rates of 2.1 percent per year and 1.5 percent per year, respectively during the period 1975-2100. The corresponding annual CO₂ emissions rise to a maximum of 16 gigatons of carbon around 2050 and then decline as a result of a transition to nonfossil fuel energy systems. A modified scenario for high CO₂ emissions was obtained by assuming an abundant supply of low cost coal, thus eliminating the transition. A low case was developed in which the low cost of alternative energy (i.e., solar, nuclear) induces an earlier shift away from fossil fuels.

Annual emissions of the three scenarios were used as input to a global carbon cycle model and the CO₂ buildup in the atmosphere during the period 1980-2100 was determined by the model. All three scenarios showed continuous rises in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The reference scenario reached 775 ppm by 2100. The high CO₂ case resulted in concentrations of over 1040 ppm, and for the low case the 2100 concentration was just under 700 ppm. If the climate theory is correct, even 700 ppm is sufficient to give significant climate warming, but by experiencing the change gradually over a century, adaptation may not be painful. An early transition to nonfossil fuel supplies makes the problem less severe but does not eliminate it.     

Use of AERMOD to Determine a Hydrogen Sulfide Emission Factor for Swine Operations by Inverse Modeling

This study was conducted to determine both optimal settings applied to the plume dispersion model, AERMOD, and a scalable emission factor for accurately determining the spatial distribution of hydrogen sulfide concentrations in the vicinity of swine concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). These operations emit hydrogen sulfide from both housing structures and waste lagoons. With ambient measurements made at 4 stations within 1 km of large swine CAFOs in Iowa, an inverse-modeling approach applied to AERMOD was used to determine hydrogen sulfide emission rates. CAFO buildings were treated as volume sources whereas nearby lagoons were modeled as area sources. The robust highest concentration (RHC), calculated for both measured and modeled concentrations, was used as the metric for adjusting the emission rate until the ratio of the two RHC levels was unity. Utilizing this approach, an average emission flux rate of 0.57 μg/m(2)-s was determined for swine CAFO lagoons. Using the average total animal weight (kg) of each CAFO, an average emission factor of 6.06 × 10(-7) μg/yr-m(2)-kg was calculated. From studies that measured either building or lagoon emission flux rates, building fluxes, on a floor area basis, were considered equal to lagoon flux rates. The emission factor was applied to all CAFOs surrounding the original 4 sites and surrounding an additional 6 sites in Iowa, producing an average modeled-to-measured RHC ratio of 1.24. When the emission factor was applied to AERMOD to simulate the spatial distribution of hydrogen sulfide around a hypothetical large swine CAFO (1M kg), concentrations 0.5 km from the CAFO were 35 ppb and dropped to 2 ppb within 6 km of the CAFO. These values compare to a level of 30 ppb that has been determined by the State of Iowa as a threshold level for ambient hydrogen sulfide levels.     

Mutagenicity of chloroaniline/lignin metabolites in the salmonella/microsome assay

Abstract

Chloroanilines are constituents of many agrochemicals and have been found to be metabolized to succinic acid conjugates, e.g., succinamides and succinimides. The mutagenic potential of five chloroanilines and their succinamides and succinimide derivatives have been tested with two strains of Salmonella typhimurium (TA98 and TA100) with and without rat hepatic micro‐somal fraction. None of the compounds produced a dose response effect with a two‐fold increase in revertants indicating that these compounds are not mutagens or promutagens in these assays.     

Performance of Wet Scrubbers on Liquid and Solid Particulate Matter

A general discussion of packed scrubbers for particle collection is presented. Data on liquid entrainment separation, ammonium chloride fume collection, and clay particle collection are given.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

Application of preparative capillary gas chromatography (pcGC), automated structure generation and mutagenicity prediction to improve effect-directed analysis of genotoxicants in a contaminated groundwater

Background, aim and scope  

The importance of groundwater for human life cannot be overemphasised. Besides fulfilling essential ecological functions, it is a major source of drinking water. However, in the industrial area of Bitterfeld, it is contaminated with a multitude of harmful chemicals, including genotoxicants. Therefore, recently developed methodologies including preparative capillary gas chromatography (pcGC), MOLGEN-MS structure generation and mutagenicity prediction were applied within effect-directed analysis (EDA) to reduce sample complexity and to identify candidate mutagens in the samples. A major focus was put on the added value of these tools compared to conventional EDA combining reversed-phase liquid chromatography (RP-LC) followed by GC/MS analysis and MS library search.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.