Feasibility and costs of phosphorus application limits on 39 U.S. swine operations

Concerns about manure P and water quality have prompted new regulations imposing P limits on land application of manure. Previous research established that P limits increase land needs for animal feeding operations. We evaluated the effect of N, annual P, and rotation P limits on the feasibility of manure management. A mechanistic model characterized manure management practices on 39 swine operations (20 unagitated lagoon and 19 slurry operations) in five states (Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania). Extensive information collected from each operation was used to determine effects of manure storage type, ownership structure, and application limits on attributes of manure management. Phosphorus limits had substantially greater effect on slurry operations, increasing land needs 250% (0.3 hectares per animal unit [AU]) and time for manure application 24% (2.5 min AU(-1)) for rotation P limits and 41% (4.4 min AU(-1)) for annual P limits. Annual P limits were infeasible for current land application equipment on two operations and had the greatest effect on time and costs because they required all but three slurry operations to reduce discharge rate. We recommend implementing rotation P limits (not to exceed crop N need) to minimize time effects, allow most farmers to use their current manure application methods, and allow manure to fulfill crop N and P needs in the year of application. Phosphorus limits increased potential manure value but would require slurry operations to recover at least 61% of manure value through manure sales. Phosphorus limits are likely to shape the U.S. swine industry through differential effects on the various sectors of the swine industry.     

Problem driver remediation: a meta-analysis of the driver improvement literature

PROBLEM: Given the public safety risk posed by violation and crash repeaters and the substantial costs for state driver improvement programs, it is important that their effectiveness be scientifically demonstrated and that intervention programs are based on sound research findings. METHOD: Crash and traffic violation standardized effect sizes (d) representing 106 individual interventions were coded from 35 methodologically sound studies and analyzed using meta-analysis. RESULTS: Driver improvement intervention in general was associated with small but significant reductions in both crashes (dw = 0.03) and violations (dw = 0.06). Significant effects were found on both measures for warning letters, group meetings, individual hearings, and license suspense/revocation. Of the driver improvement interventions studied, license suspension/revocation was by far the most effective treatment for both crashes and violations (dw = 0.11 and 0.19). Since one of the objectives of license suspension/revocation is to eliminate driving for the period of suspension, it is possible that much or all of the effect is due to reduced exposure and/or more careful driving during the suspension interval. Results were mixed for other types of interventions, although distributing educational or informational material was not associated with any reductions. Interventions associated with violation reduction tended to also be associated with crash reduction, although the relationship was not very strong (r = .30). DISCUSSION: Although interpretation of the effect size estimates was complicated by almost ubiquitous heterogeneity, the results do suggest an overall positive impact of driver improvement interventions in general. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results support the continued use of driver improvement interventions, chiefly warning letters, group meetings, individual hearings, and especially license suspension/revocation. The results also suggest that court-triggered traffic violator programs are less effective than interventions triggered by drivers license agencies.     

Risk communication, value judgments, and the public-policy maker relationship in a climate of public sensitivity toward animals: revisiting britain's foot and mouth crisis

This paper offers some suggestions on, and encouragement for, how to be better at risk communication in times of agricultural crisis. During the foot and mouth epizootic, the British public, having no precedent to deal with such a rapid and widespread epizootic, no existing rules or conventions, and no social or political consensus, was forced to confront the facts of a perceived "economic disease. Foot and mouth appeared as an economic disease because the major push to eradicate it was motivated exclusively by trade and economic reasons and not because of threats it posed to the lives of human beings and livestock. The British public deferred responsibility to their elected officials for a speedy end to this non-life threatening viral epizootic. The latter, however, did not have a contingency plan in place to tackle such an extensive outbreak. The appeal to an existing policy, i.e., mass eradication, as the exclusive strategy of containment was a difficult pill for the public to swallow well before the end of the 226-day ordeal. Public outcry reflected (in part) serious misgivings about the lack of effective communication of risk-informed decisions between government agents and all concerned. The government's handling of the matter underestimated concerns and values about animal welfare, public trust, and the plight of farmers and rural communities. A general loss of trust by some segments of the public was exacerbated by perceived mismanagement and early fumbles by government agents.Public moral uneasiness during the crisis, while perhaps symbolic of growing discontent with an already fractured relationship with farmed animals and the state of animal farming today, arguably, also reflected deep disappointment in government agents to recognize inherently and conditionally normative assumptions in their argument as well as recognize their narrow conception of risk. Furthermore, broader stakeholder participation was clearly missing from the outset, especially with respect to the issue of vaccination. A greater appreciation for two-way risk communication is suggested for science-based public policy in agriculture, followed by suggestions on how to be more vigilant in the future.     

License extensions for clean-record drivers: A 4-year follow-up

Over 4,000,000 of California's 17,000,000 licensed drivers used to come to the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) annually to take written and vision tests in order to renew their driver licenses. In an effort to increase public convenience and reduce costs, extension of the license by mail was implemented for selected groups of drivers with clean records over the life of their previous licenses. Continued implementation of the program was subject to evaluation of its effect on traffic safety. Since clean-record drivers make up about 50% of the renewal population, this program made it possible for some 2,000,000 drivers annually to avoid coming to the DMV for license renewal. Two studies of program safety effects were conducted, one evaluating a 2-year extension (760,000 subjects), and the other a 4-year extension (407,000 subjects). Random assignment to a group offered extension by mail or to a control group undergoing standard renewal testing and procedures was followed by careful tracking of accident and conviction activity. During the 48-month period following mailing of renewal notices or extension offers, the extension group had a slightly higher accident rate than did the in-person renewal group — an increase of 1%, or 13 accidents for every 10,000 extension offers. Although this small increase in accident rate would translate into about 2,500 additional accident involvements per year if applied to the current volume of clean-record drivers eligible for extension, statistical tests of significance indicated that the increase could easily be due to sampling error (p>.10). A supplemental Bayesian analysis resulted in a .24 probability that there was no true increase. The administrative cost savings attributable to the extension program were conservatively estimated to be $3,000,000 per year.     

The Effects of Blister Rust on Post-Fire Regeneration of Whitebark Pine: The Sundance Burn of Northern Idaho (U.S.A.)

In the northern Rocky Mountains, whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is rapidly declining as a result of previous fire exclusion policies, mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) outbreaks, and white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ). Blister rust is potentially the most destructive agent, killing seedlings, cone-bearing branches, and, eventually, mature trees. We examined densities of whitebark pine regeneration and the incidence and severity of blister-rust infection of seedlings and saplings in the 25-year-old Sundance Burn in the Selkirk Range of northern Idaho, an area heavily infected by blister rust. We found that the mean regeneration density of whitebark pine was significantly lower than that of two other comparably aged burns in western Montana. The low density was attributed to the severe damage to the seed source on the burn perimeter, resulting from previous infestation of mountain pine beetle and blister rust. Overall, 29% of the whitebark pine regeneration in the Sundance Burn was infected by blister rust. Age and height of seedlings were important predictors of incidence of infection, and height was the most important predictor of severity of infection. Thus, as seedlings grow larger, they present a bigger target to airborne blister-rust spores. Because of the lack of seed production in the adjacent forest and expected mortality, regeneration of whitebark pine in the Sundance Burn will be slow. In areas of northern Idaho and northwestern Montana affected by blister rust and pine beetle, prescribed fires for managing whitebark pine ecosystems should be restricted to small areas or should require plantings of rust-resistant seedlings.     

Firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control

The process of technological change in pollution control is broken into three basic steps: innovation, diffusion, and optimal agency response. Firm incentives to promote these steps are then examined under five regulatory regimes: direct controls, emission subsidies, emission taxes, free marketable permits, and auctioned marketable permits. On a relative basis, emission taxes and auctioned permits provide the highest firm incentives to promote technological change; at times, free permits generate lower incentives. Direct controls, which are common regulatory tools, usually provide the lowest relative firm incentives to promote technological change.     

Volatile emissions from the flea beetle Altica litigata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) associated with invasive Ludwigia hexapetala

The flea beetle Altica litigata (Chrysomelidae) is an insect herbivore to plants within the families Lythraceae and Onagraceae, including ornamentals such as crape myrtle, Lagerstroemia spp. This insect is important both as a pest species and as a naturally occurring biological control agent due to its aggregate feeding behavior, which typically results in severe defoliation of the host plant. Despite the negative economic impact to ornamentals and contrary benefits as a biological control agent, there are few reports on the semiochemical communication of this family of insects. Uruguayan primrose-willow (Ludwigia hexapetala) is an invasive aquatic weed in California and serves as a host to A. litigata. To better characterize this association, the volatile emissions of A. litigata were collected while the flea beetles were: in containers by themselves, in containers with L. hexapetala leaves, in situ on L. hexapetala leaves in a growth chamber, and in situ on L. hexapetala leaves in the field. For comparison, the volatile emissions of A. litigata associated with two subspecies of creeping water primrose (L. peploides) were also evaluated. Two himachalene-type sesquiterpenes, showing the same carbon skeleton as compounds previously reported from Aphthona flava and Epitrix fuscula, were detected as volatiles from A. litigata.     

Modelling of occupational respirable crystalline silica exposure for quantitative exposure assessment in community-based case-control studies

We describe an empirical model for exposure to respirable crystalline silica (RCS) to create a quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) for community-based studies. Personal measurements of exposure to RCS from Europe and Canada were obtained for exposure modelling. A mixed-effects model was elaborated, with region/country and job titles as random effect terms. The fixed effect terms included year of measurement, measurement strategy (representative or worst-case), sampling duration (minutes) and a priori exposure intensity rating for each job from an independently developed JEM (none, low, high). 23,640 personal RCS exposure measurements, covering a time period from 1976 to 2009, were available for modelling. The model indicated an overall downward time trend in RCS exposure levels of -6% per year. Exposure levels were higher in the UK and Canada, and lower in Northern Europe and Germany. Worst-case sampling was associated with higher reported exposure levels and an increase in sampling duration was associated with lower reported exposure levels. Highest predicted RCS exposure levels in the reference year (1998) were for chimney bricklayers (geometric mean 0.11 mg m(-3)), monument carvers and other stone cutters and carvers (0.10 mg m(-3)). The resulting model enables us to predict time-, job-, and region/country-specific exposure levels of RCS. These predictions will be used in the SYNERGY study, an ongoing pooled multinational community-based case-control study on lung cancer.