Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

Spatial variability of carbonaceous aerosols and associated source tracers in two cites in the Midwestern United States

Semi-continuous and 24-h averaged measurements of fine carbonaceous aerosols were made concurrently at three sites within each of two U.S. Midwestern Cities; Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio; during two, one-month intensive campaigns conducted in July of 2007 and January & February of 2008. A comparison of 24-h measurements revealed substantial intra-urban variability in carbonaceous aerosols consistent with the influence of local sources, and excesses in both PM_2.5 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were identified at individual sites within each city. High time-resolved black carbon (BC) measurements indicated that elemental carbon concentrations were higher at sites adjacent to freeways and busy surface streets, and temporal patterns suggested that excess EC at sites adjacent to freeways was dominated by mobile source emissions while excesses in EC away from traffic corridors was dominated by point/area source emissions. The site-to-site variability in OC concentrations was approximately 7% within the neighborhood scale (0.5–4 km) and between 4 and 27% at the urban scale (4–100 km). In contrast, measurements of organic source tracers, in conjunction with a Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-apportionment model, indicated that the spatial variation in the contribution of both mobile and stationary sources to PM_2.5 OC often exceeded the variation in OC mass concentration by a factor of 3 or more. Markers for mobile sources, biomass smoke, natural gas, and coal combustion differed by as much as 60% within the neighborhood scale and by greater than 200% within the urban scale. The observations made during this study suggest that the urban excess of carbonaceous aerosols is much more complex than has been previously reported and that a more rigorous, source-oriented approach should be taken in order to assess the risk associated with exposure to carbonaceous aerosols within the industrialized environments of the Midwestern United States.     

Growth dynamics of Chinese wingnut (Pterocarya stenoptera) seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties under simulated water change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River

Pterocarya stenoptera is a native deciduous tree species and a candidate for reforestation in the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River in China. Water treatments of continuous flooding (CF) and periodic flooding–drought (PF) were applied to examine the growth dynamics of 4-month-old P. stenoptera seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties. Results showed that P. stenoptera seedlings in both CF and PF significantly decreased leaf biomass accumulation and the height and diameter growth as compared to that in control (CK; treatment with well-watered, well-drained soil), respectively. There was no significant difference in stem biomass among the three groups, but root biomass in PF showed severe reduction compared to that in both CK and CF. Total biomass in PF was significantly decreased compared to that in CK, but comparable to that in CF. Furthermore, no significant difference was found between CF and CK in total biomass. Water treatments in the unplanted soil pots significantly influenced soil pH, soil organic matter (OM), total nitrogen (TN), and alkali hydrolysable nitrogen (AN) contents, in contrast to no significant effects in total phosphorus (TP), total potassium (TK), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK) contents. In P. stenoptera soils, there were significant effects by water treatment, time, and treatment × time in the eight tested soil chemical properties, except treatment in TK and time effect in OM content. Compared to unplanted soils, the growth of P. stenoptera seedlings significantly increased soil pH value and OM, TN, TP, and TK contents, while decreasing AN, AP, and AK contents in CK group, augmented the mean value of each of the tested soil chemical properties with an exception of AK content in CF group, and increased soil pH value and TN, AN, TP, and AP contents with no significant differences in OM, TK, and AK contents in PF group. Given the fact that TN and TP contents significantly increased in P. stenoptera soils as compared to those in unplanted soils, growth of P. stenoptera seedlings should be a successful candidate for restoration within the highly dynamic hydrologic zone of the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.     

Global Urban Growth and the Geography of Water Availability,Quality, and Delivery

Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.     

Pollutants and the health of green sea turtles resident to an urbanized estuary in San Diego, CA

Rapid expansion of coastal anthropogenic development means that critical foraging and developmental habitats often occur near highly polluted and urbanized environments. Although coastal contamination is widespread, the impact this has on long-lived vertebrates like the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is unclear because traditional experimental methods cannot be applied. We coupled minimally invasive sampling techniques with health assessments to quantify contaminant patterns in a population of green turtles resident to San Diego Bay, CA, a highly urbanized and contaminated estuary. Several chemicals were correlated with turtle size, suggesting possible differences in physiological processes or habitat utilization between life stages. With the exception of mercury, higher concentrations of carapace metals as well as 4,4′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and γ chlordane in blood plasma relative to other sea turtle studies raises important questions about the chemical risks to turtles resident to San Diego Bay. Mercury concentrations exceeded immune function no-effects thresholds and increased carapace metal loads were correlated with higher levels of multiple health markers. These results indicate immunological and physiological effects studies are needed in this population. Our results give insight into the potential conservation risk contaminants pose to sea turtles inhabiting this contaminated coastal habitat, and highlight the need to better manage and mitigate contaminant exposure in San Diego Bay.     

Food waste treatment in a community center

For urban community composting centers, the proper selection and use of bulking agent is a key element in not only the cost but also the quality of the finished compost. Besides wood chips (WC) widely used as BA, readily usable cereal residue pellets (CRP) can provide biodegradable carbon and sufficient free air space (FAS) to produce stabilizing temperatures. The objective of the present project was to test at a community center, the effectiveness of CRP in composting food waste (FW). Two recipes were used (CRP with and without WC) to measure: FAS; temperature regimes, and; losses in mass, water, carbon and nitrogen. Both recipes were composted during three consecutive years using a 2 m³ commercial in-vessel composter operated in downtown Montreal (Canada). For all recipes, FAS exceeded 30% for moisture content below 60%, despite yearly variations in FW and BA physical properties. When properly managed by the center operator, both FW and CRP compost mixtures with and without WC developed within 3 days thermophilic temperatures exceeding 50 °C. The loss of total mass, water, carbon and nitrogen was quite variable for both recipes, ranging from 36% to 54%, 42% to 55%, 48% to 65%, and 4% to 55%, respectively. The highest loss in dry mass, water and C was obtained with FW and CRP without WC aerated to maintain mesophilic rather than thermophilic conditions. Although variable, lower nitrogen losses were obtained with CRP and WC as BA, compared to CRP alone, as also observed during previous laboratory trials. Therefore and as BA, CRP can be used alone but nitrogen losses will be minimized by adding WC. Compost stabilization depends on operator vigilance in terms of aeration. The measured fresh compost density of 530-600 kg/m³ indicates that the 2 m³ in-vessel composter can treat 6.5 tons of FW/year if operated during 7 months.     

Age before beauty? Relationships between fertilization success and age-dependent ornaments in barn swallows

When males become more ornamented and reproduce more successfully as they grow older, phenotypic correlations between ornament exaggeration and reproductive success can be confounded with age effects in cross-sectional studies, and thus say relatively little about sexual selection on these traits. This is exemplified here in a correlative study of male fertilization success in a large colony of American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster). Previous studies of this species have indicated that two sexually dimorphic traits, tail length and ventral plumage coloration, are positively correlated with male fertilization success, and a mechanism of sexual selection by female choice has been invoked. However, these studies did not control for potential age-related variation in trait expression. Here, we show that male fertilization success was positively correlated with male tail length but not with plumage coloration. We also show that 1-year-old males had shorter tails and lower fertilization success than older males. This age effect accounted for much of the covariance between tail length and fertilization success. Still, there was a positive relationship between tail length and fertilization success among older males. But as this group consisted of males from different age classes, an age effect may be hidden in this relationship as well. Our data also revealed a longitudinal increase in both tail length and fertilization success for individual males. We argue that age-dependent ornament expression and reproductive performance in males complicate inferences about female preferences and sexual selection.     

INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT STREAM NATURALIZATION NEAR CHICAGO,ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Many urban and suburban communities in the Midwest are seeking to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems — a process known as stream naturalization. This paper describes an integrated research program that seeks to develop a scientific and technological framework to support two stream naturalization projects near Chicago, Illinois. The research program integrates theory and methods in fluvial geomorphology, aquatic ecology, hydraulic engineering and social theory. Both the conceptual and the practical challenges of that integration are discussed. Scientific and technical support emphasize the development of predictive tools to evaluate the performance of possible naturalization designs at scales most appropriate to community based projects. Social analysis focuses on place based evaluations of how communities formulate an environmental vision and then, through decision making, translate this vision into specific stream naturalization strategies. Integration of scientific and technical with social components occurs in the context of community based decision making as the predictive tools are employed by project scientists to help local communities translate their environmental visions into concrete environmental designs. Social analysis of this decision making process reveals how the interplay between the community's vision of what they want the watershed to become, and the scientific perspective on what the watershed can become to achieve the community's environmental goals, leads to the implementation of specific stream naturalization practices.     

Landscape Patterns of Florida Scrub Jay Habitat Use and Demographic Success

Remote sensing and geographical information systems are used to analyze landscapes important to species of conservation concern. The accuracy of the methods depends on how closely habitat mapping classes are linked to population demography. Habitat use by Florida Scrub Jays ( Aphelocoma c. coemlescens ) was quantified using circular plots. Habitat variation was mapped using high-resolution aerial photography on a site where all Florida Scrub Jays were color-banded. Nest site selection, nest success, yearling production, and breeder survival were measured within Florida Scrub Jay territories. Habitat use was lowest in areas without scrub oaks or areas within 136 m from forests. Open oak, dominated by scrub oaks and open sandy areas, had the highest use and nest success among habitats. Open oak occurred as narrow patches ( <20 m wide) in landscapes dominated by matrix habitat (palmetto-lyonia and swale marshes). Most wide patches (>50 m) of open oak were potential population sources, where reproduction exceeded mortality. Areas with patches of open oak of less than 1 ha were usually population sinks. Open oak occurred as less flammable patches in a landscape subject to frequent fires. Population sources varied temporally and spatially with fires and site potential to support scrub oaks (soils). Analyses of landscape patterns and dynamics indicated that habitat mapping should not only include patches of currently optimal habitat but should also include landscapes associated with open oak. The influences of landscape patterns on habitat use, reproductive success, survival, and territory size can be quantified at different scales starting with attributes associated with habitat patches, nest sites, and territories. Potential mapping errors occur, however, when habitats are used to quantify the areal extent of sources and sinks and similar population attributes important for species persistence.