An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

Individual consistency in exploratory behaviour and mating tactics in male guppies

While behavioural plasticity is considered an adaptation to fluctuating social and environmental conditions, many animals also display a high level of individual consistency in their behaviour over time or across contexts (generally termed ‘personality’). However, studies of animal personalities that include sexual behaviour, or functionally distinct but correlated traits, are relatively scarce. In this study, we tested for individual behavioural consistency in courtship and exploratory behaviour in male guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in two light environments (high vs. low light intensity). Based on previous work on guppies, we predicted that males would modify their behaviour from sneak mating tactics to courtship displays under low light conditions, but also that the rank orders of courtship effort would remain unchanged (i.e. highly sexually active individuals would display relatively high levels of courtship under both light regimes). We also tested for correlations between courtship and exploratory behaviour, predicting that males that had high display rates would also be more likely to approach a novel object. Although males showed significant consistency in their exploratory and mating behaviour over time (1 week), we found no evidence that these traits constituted a behavioural syndrome. Furthermore, in contrast to previous work, we found no overall effect of the light environment on any of the behaviours measured, although males responded to the treatment on an individual-level basis, as reflected by a significant individual-by-environment interaction. The future challenge is to investigate how individual consistency across different environmental contexts relates to male reproductive success.     

A life cycle comparison of greenhouse emissions for power generation from coal mining and underground coal gasification

Underground coal gasification (UCG) is an advancing technology that is receiving considerable global attention as an economic and environmentally friendly alternative for exploitation of coal deposits. UCG has the potential to decrease greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) during the development and utilization of coal resources. In this paper, the life cycle of UCG from in situ coal gasification to utilization for electricity generation is analyzed and compared with coal extraction through conventional coal mining and utilization in power plants. Four life cycle assessment models have been developed and analyzed to compare (greenhouse gas) GHG emissions of coal mining, coal gasification and power generation through conventional pulverized coal fired power plants (PCC), supercritical coal fired (SCPC) power plants, integrated gasification combined cycle plants for coal (Coal-IGCC), and combined cycle gas turbine plants for UCG (UCG-CCGT). The analysis shows that UCG is comparable to these latest technologies and in fact, the GHG emissions from UCG are about 28 % less than the conventional PCC plant. When combined with the economic superiority, UCG has a clear advantage over competing technologies. The comparison also shows that there is considerable reduction in the GHG emissions with the development of technology and improvements in generation efficiencies.     

Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Detection Method for Avian Influenza Viruses in Water

Recent events have shown that humans may become infected with some pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (AIV). Since soil and water, including lakes, rivers, and seashores, may be contaminated by AIV excreted by birds, effective methods are needed for monitoring water for emerging viruses. Combining water filtration with molecular methods such as PCR is a fast and effective way for detecting viruses. The objective of this study was to apply a convenient method for the detection of AIV in natural water samples. Distilled water and lake, river, and seawater were artificially contaminated with AIV (H5N3) and passed through a filter system. AIV was detected from filter membrane by real-time RT-PCR. The performance of Zetapor, SMWP, and Sartobind D5F membranes in recovering influenza viruses was first evaluated using contaminated distilled water. SWMP, which gave the highest virus recoveries, was then compared with a pre-filter combined GF/F filter membrane in a trial using natural water samples. In this study, the cellulose membrane SMWP was found to be practical for recovery of AIVs in water. Viral yields varied between 62.1 and 65.9% in distilled water and between 1 and 16.7% in natural water samples. The borosilicate glass membrane GF/F combined with pre-filter was also feasible in filtering natural water samples with viral yields from 1.98 to 7.33%. The methods described can be used for monitoring fresh and seawater samples for the presence of AIV and to determine the source of AIV transmission in an outbreak situation.     

Capability development of local communities for project sustainability in afforestation/reforestation clean development mechanism

It has been recognized that the involvement of local community is essential to ensure the sustainability of A/R CDM (afforestation/reforestation clean development mechanism) project. This study verifies if the risks of non-permanence and leakage are addressed in a registered small scale A/R CDM project in Vietnam. Workshops, interviews, and a questionnaire survey of local villagers revealed that the project has caused a shortage of land for conventional activities such as grazing, fuel wood collection and shifting cultivation, and consequently posed the risks of project non-permanence and leakage. It is suggested that participation of all stakeholders in the community to the A/R CDM project beyond existing land tenure and adequate carbon benefit sharing according to the level of contribution to the project are required to reduce the risk of non permanence. To ensure the participation, the community should have capability such as consensus building and collective action. Leakage would be minimized if the community has alternative measures to the conventional activities before starting the project. We argue that it is necessary to first develop a community’s capabilities in the readiness phase of any A/R CDM project in order to reduce the risks for the project sustainability, and that new sources of funding are needed for this purpose.     

Building regional priorities in forests for development and adaptation to climate change in the Congo Basin

Indentifying common priorities in shared natural resource systems constitutes an important platform for implementing adaptation and a major step in sharing a common responsibility in addressing climate change. Predominated by discourses on REDD + (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) with little emphasis on adaptation there is a risk of lack of policy measures in addressing climate change in the Congo Basin. Forest products and ecosystem services provide security portfolios for the predominantly rural communities, and play major roles in national development programmes in both revenue and employment opportunities. Thus, raising the profile of forests in the policy arena especially in the twin roles of addressing climate change in mitigation and adaptation and achieving resilient development is crucial. Within the framework of the Congo Basin Forests and Climate Change Adaptation project (COFCCA) project, science policy dialogue was conducted to identify and prioritize forest based sectors vulnerable to climate change but important to household livelihoods and national development. The goal of the prioritization process was for the development of intervention in forest as measures for climate change adaptation in Central Africa. Participants constituted a wide range of stakeholders (government, Non Governmental Organizations, research institutions, universities, community leaders, private sectors etc.) as representatives from three countries directly involved in the project: Cameroon, Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo. Building on national priorities, four forest related sectors were identified as common priorities at the regional level for focus on climate change adaptation. These sectors included: (1) energy with emphasis on fuel wood and Charcoal; (2) Water principally quality, quantity, accessibility, etc.; (3) Food with emphasis on Non Timber Forest Products, and (4) Health linked to healthcare products (medicinal plants). Using these prioritized sectors, the project focused on addressing the impacts of climate change on local communities and the development of adaptation strategies in the three pilot countries of the Congo Basin region. The four sectors constitute the key for development in the region and equally considered as priority sectors in the poverty reduction papers. Focused research on these sectors can help to inject the role of forests in national and local development and their potentials contributions to climate change adaptation in national and public discourses. Mainstreaming forest for climate change adaptation into national development planning is the key to improve policy coherence and effectiveness in forest management in the region.     

European scale application of atmospheric reactive nitrogen measurements in a low-cost approach to infer dry deposition fluxes

A European scale network was established in 2006 as part of the NitroEurope Integrated Project to infer reactive nitrogen (Nr) dry deposition fluxes, based on low-cost sampling of gaseous and aerosol species and inferential modelling. The network provides monthly measurements of NH₃, NH₄⁺, HNO₃ and NO₃⁻, as well as SO₂, SO₄²⁻, HCl, Cl⁻ and base cations at 58 sites. Measurements are made with an established low-cost denuder methodology (DELTA) as a basis to: (1) examine temporal trends and spatial patterns across Europe, (2) improve and calibrate inferential modelling techniques to estimate exchange of Nr species, (3) provide best estimates of atmospheric dry N deposition, and (4) permit an analysis of net GHG exchange in relation to atmospheric and agricultural N inputs at the European scale. Responsibility for measurements is shared among seven European laboratories. An inter-comparison of the DELTA implementation by 6 laboratories at 4 test sites (Montelibretti, Italy; Braunschweig, Germany; Paterna, Spain and Auchencorth, UK) from July to October 2006 provided training for the laboratories and showed that good agreement was achieved in different climatic conditions (87% of laboratory site-means within 20% of the inter-laboratory median). Results obtained from the first year of measurements show substantial spatial variability in atmospheric Nr concentrations, illustrating the major local (NH₃) and regional (HNO₃, NO₃⁻, and NH₄⁺) differences in Nr concentrations. These results provide the basis to develop future estimates of site-based Nr dry deposition fluxes across Europe, and highlight the role of NH₃, largely of agricultural origin, which was the largest single constituent and will dominate dry Nr fluxes at most sites.     

Charles Darwin, beetles and phylogenetics

Here, we review Charles Darwin’s relation to beetles and developments in coleopteran systematics in the last two centuries. Darwin was an enthusiastic beetle collector. He used beetles to illustrate different evolutionary phenomena in his major works, and astonishingly, an entire sub-chapter is dedicated to beetles in “The Descent of Man”. During his voyage on the Beagle, Darwin was impressed by the high diversity of beetles in the tropics, and he remarked that, to his surprise, the majority of species were small and inconspicuous. However, despite his obvious interest in the group, he did not get involved in beetle taxonomy, and his theoretical work had little immediate impact on beetle classification. The development of taxonomy and classification in the late nineteenth and earlier twentieth century was mainly characterised by the exploration of new character systems (e.g. larval features and wing venation). In the mid-twentieth century, Hennig’s new methodology to group lineages by derived characters revolutionised systematics of Coleoptera and other organisms. As envisioned by Darwin and Ernst Haeckel, the new Hennigian approach enabled systematists to establish classifications truly reflecting evolution. Roy A. Crowson and Howard E. Hinton, who both made tremendous contributions to coleopterology, had an ambivalent attitude towards the Hennigian ideas. The Mickoleit school combined detailed anatomical work with a classical Hennigian character evaluation, with stepwise tree building, comparatively few characters and a priori polarity assessment without explicit use of the outgroup comparison method. The rise of cladistic methods in the 1970s had a strong impact on beetle systematics. Cladistic computer programs facilitated parsimony analyses of large data matrices, mostly morphological characters not requiring detailed anatomical investigations. Molecular studies on beetle phylogeny started in the 1990s with modest taxon sampling and limited DNA data. This has changed dramatically. With very large data sets and high throughput sampling, phylogenetic questions can be addressed without prior knowledge of morphological characters. Nevertheless, molecular studies have not lead to the great breakthrough in beetle systematics—yet. Especially the phylogeny of the extremely species rich suborder Polyphaga remains incompletely resolved. Coordinated efforts of molecular workers and of morphologists using innovative techniques may lead to more profound insights in the near future. The final aim is to develop a well-founded phylogeny, which truly reflects the evolution of this immensely species rich group of organisms.