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171.
Lior Davidovitch Richard Stoklosa Jonathan Majer Alex Nietrzeba Peter Whittle Kerrie Mengersen Yakov Ben-Haim 《Journal of environmental management》2009
Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy. 相似文献
172.
Benjamin M. Jones Christopher D. Arp Kenneth M. Hinkel Richard A. Beck Joel A. Schmutz Barry Winston 《Environmental management》2009,43(6):1071-1084
Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources.
Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide
an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand
seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter
water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced
Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual
variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation
in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution
aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were
used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent
changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical
areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that
both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding
may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. 相似文献
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176.
Dale M. Robertson Gregory E. Schwarz David A. Saad Richard B. Alexander 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(2):534-549
Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs. 相似文献
177.
Richard P. Haynes 《Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics》2009,22(6):503-504
178.
David Browne Bernadette ORegan Richard Moles 《Waste management (New York, N.Y.)》2009,29(10):2765-2771
This paper aims to measure product and waste flows in an Irish city-region using the principles of metabolism and mass balance. An empirical indicator to measure resource efficiency, using a ratio of waste disposal as a function of product consumption, was developed and it was found that total materials metabolic inefficiency fell by 31% from 0.13 in 1996 to 0.09 in 2002. The paper concludes by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of this indicator and its potential application in the field of sustainable consumption and resource efficiency as well as making suggestions to improve and strengthen the indicator. 相似文献
179.
Jehangir T. Madhani Joseph Young Neil A. Kelson Richard J. Brown 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2009,9(5-6):357-369
A novel method is developed to capture and analyze several experimental flow regimes through a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked screens. Typical flow conditions and screen blockages are based on findings from field investigations that show a high content of organic matter in urban areas. Fluid motion of neutral buoyant particles is tracked using a high-speed camera and particle image velocimetry (PIV) software. The recorded fluid motion is visualized through an image-based, line integral convolution (LIC) algorithm, generally suitable for large computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets. The LIC method, a dense representation of streamlines, is found to be superior to the point-based flow visualization (e.g., hedgehog or arrow plots) in highlighting main flow features that are important for understanding litter capture and retention in the GPT. Detailed comparisons are made between the flow regimes, and the results are compared with CFD data previously obtained for fully blocked screens. The LIC technique is a useful tool for identifying flow structures in the GPT and areas that are subjected to abnormalities difficult to detect by conventional methods. The novel method is found to be useful both in the laboratory and in the field, with little preparation and cost. The enhancements and pitfalls of the LIC technique along with the experimentally captured flow field are presented and discussed. 相似文献
180.
Richard Roth Paul R. Marques Robert B. VoasAuthor vitae 《Journal of Safety Research》2009,40(6):437-441