Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of the Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model.     

Biomonitoring for exposure to multiple trace elements via analysis of urine from participants in the study of metals and assisted reproductive technologies (SMART)

Humans are exposed to concentrations of multiple trace elements through a variety of background sources; many are suspected reproductive toxicants. Prior to investigating associations between trace elements and human reproductive health, potential biomarkers of exposure should be characterized by sources of variability in the population at risk. Factors influencing elemental exposure should also be identified to ensure their consideration as potential confounding variables. The principal aim of this study is to characterize sources of variability for 19 trace elements measured in urine specimens collected from 55 women and 36 male partners completing a 1st cycle of in vitro fertilization (IVF). Urine specimens were analyzed using a biomonitoring method based on inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Randomly selected urine specimens (～6%) were analyzed in duplicate, and these data were used to characterize sources of variability. Nine trace elements including As, Ba, Cd, Cs, Co, Cu, Mn, Mo, and Zn, were quantified in most specimens, indicating their utility in future epidemiologic studies of trace elements exposure and IVF outcomes. With few exceptions, normalizing urine using the traditional creatinine-correction procedure, or an alternative approach based on a linear regression model, increased residual variability only slightly. Sex and race appear to be important factors to consider in epidemiologic studies conducted in this population. Urine concentrations for most elements are similar to those reported in the 2005-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); however, differences in others may indicate regional trends or a unique exposure history for this infertile study population.     

Foraging tactics of an ambush predator: the effects of substrate attributes on prey availability and predator feeding success

The foraging sites selected by an ambush forager can strongly affect its feeding opportunities. Foraging cane toads (Rhinella marina) typically select open areas, often under artificial lights that attract insects. We conducted experimental trials in the field, using rubber mats placed under lights, to explore the influence of substrate color and rugosity on prey availability (numbers, sizes, and types of insects) and toad foraging success. A mat's color (black vs. white) and rugosity (smooth vs. rough) did not influence the numbers, sizes, or kinds of insects that were attracted to it, but toads actively preferred to feed on rugose white mats (50% of prey-capture events, vs. a null of 25%). White backgrounds provided better visual contrast of the (mostly dark) insects, and manipulations of prey color in the laboratory showed that contrast was critical in toad foraging success. Insects landing on rugose backgrounds were slower to leave, again increasing capture opportunities for toads. Thus, cane toads actively select backgrounds that maximize prey-capture opportunities, a bias driven by the ways that substrate attributes influence ease of prey detection and capture rather than by absolute prey densities.     

The Effects of Hearing Protectors on Auditory Localization: Evidence From Audio-Visual Target Acquisitioi

Response times (RT) in an audio-visual target acquisition task were collected from 3 participants while wearing either circumaural earmuffs, foam earplugs, or no hearing protection. Analyses revealed that participants took significantly longer to locate and identify an audio-visual target in both hearing protector conditions than they did in the unoccluded condition, suggesting a disturbance of the cues used by listeners to localize sounds in space. RTs were significantly faster in both hearing protector conditions than in a non-audio control condition, indicating that auditory localization was not completely disrupted. Results are discussed in terms of safety issues involved with wearing hearing protectors in an occupational environment.     

Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.     

Should I stay or should I go? An experimental study of health and economic government policies following a severe biological agent release

Extensive research has explored policy challenges associated with preparing and responding to a large-scale biological release. A key component in recovery strategy development that has received less attention is the understanding of government policy influence on the impacted populations’ migratory decisions. This study experimentally manipulates health and economic government policies during response and recovery to assess the extent to which public migration is contingent on the level of government intervention. Set immediately following a large-scale anthrax release in San Francisco, we use a five episode video scenario to describe details about the environmental impacts of the disaster, emergency response procedures, and clean-up operations. Within these video segments, the extent of government involvement in economic and health risk policies is manipulated. Using these manipulations as predictors, we track how varying levels of government risk signals influence migration behavior at three distinct decision points during disaster recovery. In addition, two belief scales and two scales of emotion (affect) are included as predictors to explore the potential for their mediating role in explaining intentions to migrate. We find that the decision to migrate is highly context-sensitive, with each decision point showing a unique combination of significant predictors influencing decision making. At 19 days following the anthrax release, the health risk policy manipulation has both a direct and indirect effect on migration behavior. At 3 months, the influence of the health risk policy manipulation is mediated by beliefs, and at 1 year, only indirect effects associated with affect and beliefs influence migration.     

Support of sustainable management of nitrogen contamination due to septic systems using numerical modeling methods

Nitrogen contamination is a serious concern to sustainable environmental management, and one important source of nitrogen contaminant is due to wastewater treatment using onsite sewage treatment and disposal systems (OSTDS, a.k.a., septic systems). This paper presents a study in which numerical modeling is used to support sustainable decision-making and management of nitrogen contamination by utilizing a recently developed GIS-based software, VZMOD, a Vadose Zone MODel for simulating nitrogen transformation and transport in vadose zone between drainfield of septic systems and water table. VZMOD is based on a physical model of unsaturated flow and nitrogen transformation and transport, and the model is solved numerically using the finite element methods. This is the major difference between VZMOD and other GIS-based software of nitrogen modeling. Using GIS techniques, VZMOD considers spatial variability of a number of hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and porosity. A unique feature of VZMOD is that VZMOD addresses spatial variability of water table by using VZMOD together with ArcNLET, an ArcGIS-based software developed to simulate groundwater flow and nitrate load from septic systems to surface water bodies. VZMOD is designed to execute in different modes to be compatible with different levels of data availability in various management projects of nitrogen contamination. This paper presents an application of VZMOD at a neighborhood with hundreds of septic systems and heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and water table depth. The modeling results indicate that using septic systems at the considered neighborhood is unsustainable and more management means are necessary.