USE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL IN EVALUATING WATER CONSUMPTION CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made.     

Prenatal sonographic assessment of early,rapidly growing fetal cervical teratoma

Although malignant transformation of fetal cervical teratoma is extremely rare, perinatal morbidity is high and usually related to the size of the tumour, which may compromise fetal swallowing and subsequently lead to upper airway obstruction. We present a case in which mid-trimester serial sonography demonstrated markedly rapid early growth of a lesion of this type between 17 and 19 weeks' gestation indicating the aggressive nature of this tumour, assisting parental decision to terminate the pregnancy. Histopathology confirmed grade 3 immaturity of the lesion.     

Novel Organisms: Comparing Invasive Species, GMOs, and Emerging Pathogens

Invasive species, range-expanding species, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), synthetic organisms, and emerging pathogens increasingly affect the human environment. We propose a framework that allows comparison of consecutive stages that such novel organisms go through. The framework provides a common terminology for novel organisms, facilitating knowledge exchange among researchers, managers, and policy makers that work on, or have to make effective decisions about, novel organisms. The framework also indicates that knowledge about the causes and consequences of stage transitions for the better studied novel organisms, such as invasive species, can be transferred to more poorly studied ones, such as GMOs and emerging pathogens. Finally, the framework advances understanding of how climate change can affect the establishment, spread, and impacts of novel organisms, and how biodiversity affects, and is affected by, novel organisms.     

Validation of Models for Predicting Formaldehyde Concentrations in Residences due to Pressed-Wood Products

This paper describes a laboratory project to assess the accuracy of emission and indoor air quality models to be used in predicting formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations in residences due to pressed-wood products made with urea-formaldehyde bonding resins. The products tested were partlcleboard underlayment, hardwood- plywood paneling and medium-density fiberboard (mdf). The products were initially characterized in chambers by measuring their formaldehyde surface emission rates over a range of formaldehyde concentrations, air exchange rates and two combinations of temperature and relative humidity (23° C and 5 0% RH; 26°C and 60% RH). They were then installed in a two-room prototype house in three different combinations (underlayment flooring only; underlayment flooring and paneling; and underlayment flooring, paneling, and mdf). The equilibrium formaldehyde concentrations were monitored as a function of air exchange rate. Particleboard underlayment and mdf, but not paneling, behaved as the emission model predicted over a large concentration range, under both sets of temperature and relative humidity. Good agreement was also obtained between measured formaldehyde concentrations and those predicted by a mass-balance indoor air quality model.     

Investigating toxic metal levels in popular edible fishes from the South Durban basin: implications for public health and food security

Contamination of the ocean by heavy metals may have ecosystem-wide implications because they are toxic even if present in trace levels, and the relative ease of their bioaccumulation by marine organisms may affect human health, primarily through consumption of contaminated fish. We evaluated metal concentrations in six different popular edible fish species and estimated the potential health risks from consumption of contaminated fish. There was no correlation between fish length and average metal accumulation although the fish species tended to accumulate significantly more Al and Zn (P?<?0.05) than any of the other metals. Significantly higher Mn concentrations were found in fish gills compared to other body parts in all fish species. Bronze seabream, Catface rockcod, and Slinger seabream had significantly higher mean Cr concentration in the liver than in either the tissues or gills. The highest concentration of Zn in fleshy tissue was in Horse mackerel (56.71 μg g^?1) followed by Bronze seabream (31.07 μg g^?1). Al levels ranged from 5.6 μg g^?1 in Atlantic mackerel to 35.04 μg g^?1 in Horse mackerel tissue while Cu and Cr concentrations were highest in the tissues of Horse mackerel (6.83 and 1.81 μg g^?1, respectively) followed by Santer seabream (3.15; 1.09 μg g^?1) and Bronze seabream (3.09; 1.30 μg g^?1), respectively. The highest tissue concentration of Mn was detected in Bronze seabream (8.23 μg g^?1) followed by Catface rockcod (6.05 μg g^?1) and Slinger seabream (5.21 μg g^?1) while Pb concentrations ranged from a high of 8.44 μg g^?1 in Horse mackerel to 1.09 μg g^?1 in Catface rockcod. However, the estimated potential health risks from fish consumption as determined by the target hazard quotient (THQ) and hazard index (HI) were significantly lower than 1, implying that metals were not present in sufficiently high quantities to be of any health and/or food and security concern in the studied fishes.     

Dechlorination of pentachloroethane by commercial Fe and ferruginous smectite

Short-term experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of a commercial Fe and an iron-bearing clay mineral, ferruginuous smectite (SWa-1), on the degradation of pentachloroethane (PCA). After 3 h of contact time, SWa-1 catalyzed PCA dehydrochlorination to tetrachloroethene (PCE, 65% conversion), whereas commercial Fe promoted PCA stepwise dechlorination via dehydrochlorination (approximately 40% conversion) and subsequent PCE hydrogenolysis to trichloroethene (TCE). The addition of unaltered SWa-1 to commercial Fe led to a complete inhibition on TCE production, whereas the addition of reduced SWa-1 barely resulted in a 30% decrease.     

Long-term effects of sustained beef feedlot manure application on soil nutrients, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake

A field study was initiated in 1992 to investigate the long-term impacts of beef feedlot manure application (composted and uncomposted) on nutrient accumulation and movement in soil, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake. Two application strategies were compared: providing the annual crop nitrogen (N) requirement (N-based rate) or crop phosphorus (P) removal (P-based rate), as well as a comparison to inorganic fertilizer. Additionally, effects of a winter cover crop were evaluated. Irrigated corn (Zea mays L.) was produced annually from 1993 through 2002. Average silage yield and crop nutrient removal were highest with N-based manure treatments, intermediate with P-based manure treatments, and least with inorganic N fertilizer. Use of a winter cover crop resulted in silage yield reductions in four of ten years, most likely due to soil moisture depletion in the spring by the cover crop. However, the cover crop did significantly reduce NO3-N accumulation in the shallow vadose zone, particularly in latter years of the study. The composted manure N-based treatment resulted in significantly greater soil profile NO3-N concentration and higher soil P concentration near the soil surface. The accounting procedure used to calculate N-based treatment application rates resulted in acceptable soil profile NO3-N concentrations over the short term. While repeated annual manure application to supply the total crop N requirement may be acceptable for this soil for several years, sustained application over many years carries the risk of unacceptable soil P concentrations.     

Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides in predatory birds: Probabilistic characterisation of toxic liver concentrations and implications for predatory bird populations in Canada

Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodent pests but exposure and poisonings occur in non-target species, such as birds of prey. Liver residues are often analysed to detect exposure in birds found dead but their use to assess toxicity of SGARs is problematic. We analysed published data on hepatic rodenticide residues and associated symptoms of anticoagulant poisoning from 270 birds of prey using logistic regression to estimate the probability of toxicosis associated with different liver SGAR residues. We also evaluated exposure to SGARs on a national level in Canada by analysing 196 livers from great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) found dead at locations across the country. Analysis of a broader sample of raptor species from Quebec also helped define the taxonomic breadth of contamination. Calculated probability curves suggest significant species differences in sensitivity to SGARs and significant likelihood of toxicosis below previously suggested concentrations of concern (<0.1mg/kg). Analysis of birds from Quebec showed that a broad range of raptor species are exposed to SGARs, indicating that generalised terrestrial food chains could be contaminated in the vicinity of the sampled areas. Of the two species for which we had samples from across Canada, great horned owls are exposed to SGARs to a greater extent than red-tailed hawks and the liver residue levels were also higher. Using our probability estimates of effect, we estimate that a minimum of 11% of the sampled great horned owl population is at risk of being directly killed by SGARs. This is the first time the potential mortality impact of SGARs on a raptor population has been estimated.     

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis

Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.