An interdisciplinary review of current and future approaches to improving human–predator relations

In a world of shrinking habitats and increasing competition for natural resources, potentially dangerous predators bring the challenges of coexisting with wildlife sharply into focus. Through interdisciplinary collaboration among authors trained in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, we reviewed current approaches to mitigating adverse human–predator encounters and devised a vision for future approaches to understanding and mitigating such encounters. Limitations to current approaches to mitigation include too much focus on negative impacts; oversimplified equating of levels of damage with levels of conflict; and unsuccessful technical fixes resulting from failure to engage locals, address hidden costs, or understand cultural (nonscientific) explanations of the causality of attacks. An emerging interdisciplinary literature suggests that to better frame and successfully mitigate negative human–predator relations conservation professionals need to consider dispensing with conflict as the dominant framework for thinking about human–predator encounters; work out what conflicts are really about (they may be human–human conflicts); unravel the historical contexts of particular conflicts; and explore different cultural ways of thinking about animals. The idea of cosmopolitan natures may help conservation professionals think more clearly about human–predator relations in both local and global context. These new perspectives for future research practice include a recommendation for focused interdisciplinary research and the use of new approaches, including human‐animal geography, multispecies ethnography, and approaches from the environmental humanities notably environmental history. Managers should think carefully about how they engage with local cultural beliefs about wildlife, work with all parties to agree on what constitutes good evidence, develop processes and methods to mitigate conflicts, and decide how to monitor and evaluate these. Demand for immediate solutions that benefit both conservation and development favors dispute resolution and technical fixes, which obscures important underlying drivers of conflicts. If these drivers are not considered, well‐intentioned efforts focused on human–wildlife conflicts will fail.     

Desert pastoralists’ negative and positive effects on rare wildlife in the Gobi

In arid regions of the developing world, pastoralists and livestock commonly inhabit protected areas, resulting in human–wildlife conflict. Conflict is inextricably linked to the ecological processes shaping relationships between pastoralists and native herbivores and carnivores. To elucidate relationships underpinning human–wildlife conflict, we synthesized 15 years of ecological and ethnographic data from Ikh Nart Nature Reserve in Mongolia's Gobi steppe. The density of argali (Ovis ammon), the world's largest wild sheep, at Ikh Nart was among the highest in Mongolia, yet livestock were >90% of ungulate biomass and dogs >90% of large‐carnivore biomass. For argali, pastoral activities decreased food availability, increased mortality from dog predation, and potentially increased disease risk. Isotope analyses indicated that livestock accounted for >50% of the diet of the majority of gray wolves (Canis lupus) and up to 90% of diet in 25% of sampled wolves (n = 8). Livestock composed at least 96% of ungulate prey in the single wolf pack for which we collected species‐specific prey data. Interviews with pastoralists indicated that wolves annually killed 1–4% of Ikh Nart's livestock, and pastoralists killed wolves in retribution. Pastoralists reduced wolf survival by killing them, but their livestock were an abundant food source for wolves. Consequently, wolf density appeared to be largely decoupled from argali density, and pastoralists had indirect effects on argali that could be negative if pastoralists increased wolf density (apparent competition) or positive if pastoralists decreased wolf predation (apparent facilitation). Ikh Nart's argali population was stable despite these threats, but livestock are increasingly dominant numerically and functionally relative to argali. To support both native wildlife and pastoral livelihoods, we suggest training dogs to not kill argali, community insurance against livestock losses to wolves, reintroducing key native prey species to hotspots of human–wolf conflict, and developing incentives for pastoralists to reduce livestock density.     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas     

The measurement of water scarcity: Defining a meaningful indicator

Metrics of water scarcity and stress have evolved over the last three decades from simple threshold indicators to holistic measures characterising human environments and freshwater sustainability. Metrics commonly estimate renewable freshwater resources using mean annual river runoff, which masks hydrological variability, and quantify subjectively socio-economic conditions characterising adaptive capacity. There is a marked absence of research evaluating whether these metrics of water scarcity are meaningful. We argue that measurement of water scarcity (1) be redefined physically in terms of the freshwater storage required to address imbalances in intra- and inter-annual fluxes of freshwater supply and demand; (2) abandons subjective quantifications of human environments and (3) be used to inform participatory decision-making processes that explore a wide range of options for addressing freshwater storage requirements beyond dams that include use of renewable groundwater, soil water and trading in virtual water. Further, we outline a conceptual framework redefining water scarcity in terms of freshwater storage.     

Driving while impaired by alcohol: An analysis of drink-drivers involved in UK collisions

Objective: Drink-driving represents a critical issue on international organizations’ agendas as one of the key behavioral risk factors in road traffic safety, alongside speed and nonuse of motorcycle helmets, seat belts, and child restraints. Changing road user behaviors regarding these 5 factors is a critical component in reducing road traffic injuries and casualties. The objective of this study is the identification of drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes in the UK while impaired by alcohol to design targeted drink drive compliance campaigns.

Method: To profile drivers with the factor “impaired by alcohol” assigned in collisions, an extensive data set is used, including all reported injury collisions between 2011 and 2015 in the UK (police records), merged with the Experian Mosaic Database. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression is conducted, utilizing the hierarchical nature of the data (drivers within Mosaic types).

Results: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that some driver profiles are more likely to contribute to crashes and are assigned the contributory factor “impaired by alcohol.” Drink-related crashes are more common in some circumstances or for some crash-involved driver groups than others. For instance, alcohol-related crashes are more likely to occur on single carriageways and among males and 25- to 35-year-olds. Drink-drive-related crashes are found to be strongly associated with dark lighting conditions and, more specifically, with late night hours (the interval between 3:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. accounts for a third of the drink-drive-related collisions). Using the Experian Mosaic Database which divides the UK population into 66 types based on demographic, lifestyle, and behavior characteristics, the finding is that, among crash-involved drivers, some Mosaic types are significantly more likely (e.g., pocket pensions, dependent greys, streetwise singles) and others are significantly less likely (e.g., crowded kaleidoscope, cultural comfort, penthouse chic) to contribute to a drink-related crash.

Conclusions: The outcome is a more nuanced understanding of drivers contributing to drink-related crashes in the UK. The study concludes by discussing the implications for governments and other interested bodies for better targeting and delivery of public education campaigns and interventions.     

Conservation implications of physiological carry‐over effects in bats recovering from white‐nose syndrome

Although it is well documented that infectious diseases can pose threats to biodiversity, the potential long‐term consequences of pathogen exposure on individual fitness and its effects on population viability have rarely been studied. We tested the hypothesis that pathogen exposure causes physiological carry‐over effects with a pathogen that is uniquely suited to this question because the infection period is specific and time limited. The fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans causes white‐nose syndrome (WNS) in hibernating bats, which either die due to the infection while hibernating or recover following emergence from hibernation. The fungus infects all exposed individuals in an overwintering site simultaneously, and bats that survive infection during hibernation clear the pathogen within a few weeks following emergence. We quantified chronic stress during the active season, when bats are not infected, by measuring cortisol in bat claws. Free‐ranging Myotis lucifugus who survived previous exposure to P. destructans had significantly higher levels of claw cortisol than naïve individuals. Thus, cryptic physiological carry‐over effects of pathogen exposure may persist in asymptomatic, recovered individuals. If these effects result in reduced survival or reproductive success, they could also affect population viability and even act as a third stream in the extinction vortex. For example, significant increases in chronic stress, such as those indicated here, are correlated with reduced reproductive success in a number of species. Future research should directly explore the link between pathogen exposure and the viability of apparently recovered populations to improve understanding of the true impacts of infectious diseases on threatened populations.     

Effectiveness of rodenticides for managing invasive roof rats and native deer mice in orchards

Roof rats (Rattus rattus) and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are occasional pests of nut and tree fruit orchards throughout California and in many other parts of the USA and beyond. In general, the most practical and cost-effective control method for rodents in many agricultural environments is the use of rodenticides (toxic baits), but little or no information exists on the efficacy of current rodenticides in controlling roof rats and deer mice in orchards. Therefore, our goals were to develop an index of rodent activity to monitor efficacy of rodenticides and to subsequently test the efficacy of three California Department of Food and Agriculture rodenticide baits (0.005 % chlorophacinone treated oats, 0.005 % diphacinone treated oats, and 0.005 % diphacinone wax block) to determine their utility for controlling roof rats and deer mice in agricultural orchards. We determined that a general index using the number of roof rat photos taken at a minimum of a 5-min interval was strongly correlated to the minimum number known estimate of roof rats; this approach was used to monitor roof rat and deer mouse populations pre- and post-treatment. Of the baits tested, the 0.005 % diphacinone treated oats was most effective for both species; 0.005 % chlorophacinone grain was completely ineffective against roof rats. Our use of elevated bait stations proved effective at providing bait to target species and should substantially limit access to rodenticides by many non-target species.     

Integration of ecological–biological thresholds in conservation decision making

In the Anthropocene, coupled human and natural systems dominate and only a few natural systems remain relatively unaffected by human influence. On the one hand, conservation criteria based on areas of minimal human impact are not relevant to much of the biosphere. On the other hand, conservation criteria based on economic factors are problematic with respect to their ability to arrive at operational indicators of well‐being that can be applied in practice over multiple generations. Coupled human and natural systems are subject to economic development which, under current management structures, tends to affect natural systems and cross planetary boundaries. Hence, designing and applying conservation criteria applicable in real‐world systems where human and natural systems need to interact and sustainably coexist is essential. By recognizing the criticality of satisfying basic needs as well as the great uncertainty over the needs and preferences of future generations, we sought to incorporate conservation criteria based on minimal human impact into economic evaluation. These criteria require the conservation of environmental conditions such that the opportunity for intergenerational welfare optimization is maintained. Toward this end, we propose the integration of ecological–biological thresholds into decision making and use as an example the planetary‐boundaries approach. Both conservation scientists and economists must be involved in defining operational ecological–biological thresholds that can be incorporated into economic thinking and reflect the objectives of conservation, sustainability, and intergenerational welfare optimization.