Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.     

Should I stay or should I go? An experimental study of health and economic government policies following a severe biological agent release

Extensive research has explored policy challenges associated with preparing and responding to a large-scale biological release. A key component in recovery strategy development that has received less attention is the understanding of government policy influence on the impacted populations’ migratory decisions. This study experimentally manipulates health and economic government policies during response and recovery to assess the extent to which public migration is contingent on the level of government intervention. Set immediately following a large-scale anthrax release in San Francisco, we use a five episode video scenario to describe details about the environmental impacts of the disaster, emergency response procedures, and clean-up operations. Within these video segments, the extent of government involvement in economic and health risk policies is manipulated. Using these manipulations as predictors, we track how varying levels of government risk signals influence migration behavior at three distinct decision points during disaster recovery. In addition, two belief scales and two scales of emotion (affect) are included as predictors to explore the potential for their mediating role in explaining intentions to migrate. We find that the decision to migrate is highly context-sensitive, with each decision point showing a unique combination of significant predictors influencing decision making. At 19 days following the anthrax release, the health risk policy manipulation has both a direct and indirect effect on migration behavior. At 3 months, the influence of the health risk policy manipulation is mediated by beliefs, and at 1 year, only indirect effects associated with affect and beliefs influence migration.     

Support of sustainable management of nitrogen contamination due to septic systems using numerical modeling methods

Nitrogen contamination is a serious concern to sustainable environmental management, and one important source of nitrogen contaminant is due to wastewater treatment using onsite sewage treatment and disposal systems (OSTDS, a.k.a., septic systems). This paper presents a study in which numerical modeling is used to support sustainable decision-making and management of nitrogen contamination by utilizing a recently developed GIS-based software, VZMOD, a Vadose Zone MODel for simulating nitrogen transformation and transport in vadose zone between drainfield of septic systems and water table. VZMOD is based on a physical model of unsaturated flow and nitrogen transformation and transport, and the model is solved numerically using the finite element methods. This is the major difference between VZMOD and other GIS-based software of nitrogen modeling. Using GIS techniques, VZMOD considers spatial variability of a number of hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and porosity. A unique feature of VZMOD is that VZMOD addresses spatial variability of water table by using VZMOD together with ArcNLET, an ArcGIS-based software developed to simulate groundwater flow and nitrate load from septic systems to surface water bodies. VZMOD is designed to execute in different modes to be compatible with different levels of data availability in various management projects of nitrogen contamination. This paper presents an application of VZMOD at a neighborhood with hundreds of septic systems and heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and water table depth. The modeling results indicate that using septic systems at the considered neighborhood is unsustainable and more management means are necessary.     

Socioeconomic evaluation of the impact of natural resource stressors on human-use services in the Great Lakes environment: A Lake Michigan case study

The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people (Canadian and U.S.) who depend on a healthy Great Lakes ecosystem for economic, societal, and personal vitality. The challenge to policymakers and the public is to balance economic benefits with the need to conserve and replenish regional natural resources in a manner that ensures long term prosperity. Nine critical broad-spectrum stressors of ecological services are identified, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding. Many of these stressors overlap. For example, mining activities alone can create stress in at least five of these categories. The focus groups were conducted to examine the public’s awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. This helped generate a grouping of stressors that the public is especially concerned about, those they care little about, and everything else in between. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important to them. This approach of using focus groups is a critical first step in helping natural resource managers such as Trustees and NGOs understand what subsequent steps to take and develop policy measures that are of most interest and value to the public. Skipping or glossing over this key first task could lead to difficulties with respect to survey design and model development in a non-market valuation study. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the others. It is thus clear that outreach programs may be necessary to educate the public about the severity of some low-ranked stressors including climate change.     

Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought1

Polebitski, Austin S. and Richard N. Palmer, 2012. Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00691.x Abstract: This research investigates customer response to demand management strategies during two drought periods in the City of Seattle. An analysis of customer response to voluntary water curtailments is conducted using k‐means clustering to identify like groups of customers and behavior patterns. The clustering method identified important variables (household income, lot size, living space, and family size) useful in determining customer response to water curtailments. Ordinary least squares and spatial lag regression models are estimated using the first and second principal components of variables identified in the clustering analysis. Larger values of income, lot size, and living space enhanced water reductions whereas larger family size tended to reduce the effectiveness of curtailments. Projections of changes in Seattle’s built environment and demographics between 2000 and 2030 were obtained from an urban simulation model (UrbanSim) and were processed through the regression models to investigate changes in future curtailment effectiveness. This research found that increasing household size hardened demands (decreased curtailment effectiveness) whereas decreasing household size increased per‐capita curtailment effectiveness. These results suggest that changes in the number of residents within a home is likely to be the most important factor in determining future curtailment effectiveness.     

Assessing Calibration Uncertainty and Automation for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Agricultural Areas Using METRIC

Agricultural irrigation accounts for a large fraction of the total water use in the western United States. The Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) remote sensing energy balance model is being used to estimate historical agricultural water use in western Nevada to evaluate basin‐wide water budgets. Each METRIC evapotranspiration (ET) estimate must be calibrated by a trained user, which requires some iterative time investment and results in variation in ET estimates between users. An automated calibration algorithm for the METRIC model was designed to generate ET estimates comparable to those from trained users by mimicking the manual calibration process. Automated calibration allows for rapid generation of METRIC ET estimates with minimal manual intervention, as well as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model. The variation in ET estimates generated by the automated calibration algorithm was found to be similar to the variation in manual ET estimates. Results indicate that uncertainty was highest for fields with low ET levels and lowest for fields with high ET levels, with a seasonal mean uncertainty of approximately 5% for all fields. In addition, in a blind comparison, automated daily and seasonal ET estimates compared well with flux tower measurement ET data at multiple sites. Automated methods can generate first‐order ET estimates that are similar to time intensive manual efforts with less time investment.     

“Liberating” social knowledges for water management,and more broadly environmental management,through “place-change planning”

In response to the big policy problem of increasing failures of traditional, largely technical, policy approaches to constructively address transformational or radical socio-environmental problems from major facility siting, landscape modification, and/or new environmental management at the local level, this paper introduces “place-change planning”. This concept is applied to recent calls by Australian water scientists and policy-makers “to liberate the knowledge, skills and individual leadership and collaboration of all stakeholders to reflect a more decentralised, disaggregated and localised water world”. Local community stakeholders appear the most neglected stakeholder currently in such water management, despite increasing international recognition of their importance for constructive change in transitional sustainability contexts. As such, place-change policy design focuses on the importance of collaborative participatory approaches for better understanding of the underlying rationalities, and, by association, of better liberating the social knowledges, of place-based local communities for better policy input to realise new visions of sustainable water management, and beyond.     

Gendered dimensions of climate change response in Swedish municipalities

This article elaborates on and discusses gendered dimensions of climate change response in Swedish municipalities. There are indications that attitudes and behaviour to the environment and climate change are gendered. This evidence together with our own work further indicates that gender awareness is most probably an important influence on how municipalities respond to climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate if and how gendered aspects of climate change response are integrated in the Swedish response to climate change. The potential causal relationships between a high level of awareness of the gendered aspects of climate change and the levels of climate change response were investigated. We asked whether there is a positive relationship between gender awareness and the quality of the communities' climate change policies and practice. Indications of such a relationship prompt a change in research priorities – paying more attention to gender – and in subsequent policy developments.