The multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) and the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART): two novel evaluation methods for developing optimal training programs

Current methodologies in training evaluation studies largely employ a single method entitled random confirmatory trials, prompting several concerns. First, practitioners and researchers often analyze the effectiveness of their entire omnibus training, rather than the individual elements or identifiable components of the training program. This slows the testing of theory and development of optimal training programs. Second, a common training is typically administered to all employees within an organization or workgroup; however, certain factors may cause individualized training to be more effective. Given these concerns, the current paper presents two training evaluation methodologies to overcome these problems: the multiphase optimization strategy and sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. The multiphase optimization strategy is a method to evaluate a standard training, which emphasizes the importance of a multi‐stage training evaluation process to analyze individual training elements. In contrast, sequential multiple assignment randomized trial is used to evaluate an adaptive training that varies over time and/or trainees. These methodologies jointly overcome the problems noted earlier, and they can be integrated to address several of the key challenges facing training researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

UV wavelengths make female three-spined sticklebacks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>) more attractive for males

Numerous fishes possess UV vision and show UV patterns, which often play a role in social communication, especially during courtship. UV light is scattered strongly in water and thus might be used for intra-specific close-range communication without being detected by predators. In addition to the red-belly colouration and blue-coloured iris, male three-spined sticklebacks possess UV reflectance on their skin, and females prefer males presented with UV light rather than without. To investigate whether UV also influences male visual preference for females in this species, we used a dichotomous mate choice design in which one female could be viewed by a male in two visual conditions. Courting male sticklebacks preferred females that were presented in full-spectrum conditions including UV to the same females presented in conditions lacking this light component. Furthermore, control trials with neutral-density filters indicated that male preference in the UV treatment was not affected by a difference in achromatic brightness between the UV+ and UV− stimuli. Reflectance measurements of gravid females suggest an enhanced UV contrast between the dark bar pattern, which is characteristic of gravid females, and silvery body parts.     

Estimation of temporary emigration in male toads

Male boreal toads (Bufo boreas) are thought to return to the breeding site every year but, if absent in a particular year, will be more likely to return the following year. Using Pollock's robust design we estimated temporary emigration (the probability a male toad is absent from a breeding site in a given year) at three locations in Colorado, USA: two in Rocky Mountain National Park and one in Chaffee County. We present data that suggest that not all male toads return to the breeding site every year. Our analyses indicate that temporary emigration varies by site and time (for example, from 1992 to 1998, the probability of temporary emigration ranged from 10% to 29% and from 3% to 95% at Lost Lake and Kettle Tarn, respectively). Although the results provide weak evidence that males are more likely to return after a year's hiatus, a general pattern of state-dependent temporary emigration was not supported. We also hypothesized relationships between temporary emigration and a number of weather variables. While some competitive models included weather covariates, imprecise and variable estimates of the effects of these covariates precluded fully defining their impact on temporary emigration.     

The Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization Study, part 3: continuous measurements of fine particulate matter mass and composition

Deployment of continuous analyzers in the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization Study (SEARCH) network began in 1998 and continues today as new technologies are developed. Measurement of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) mass is performed using a dried, 30 degrees C tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM). TEOM measurements are complemented by observations of light scattering by nephelometry. Measurements of major constituents include: (1) SO4(2-) via reduction to SO2; (2) NH4+ and NO3- via respective catalytic oxidation and reduction to NO, (3) black carbon (BC) by optical absorption, (4) total carbon by combustion to CO2, and (5) organic carbon by difference between the latter two measurements. Several illustrative examples of continuous data from the SEARCH network are presented. A distinctive composite annual average diurnal pattern is observed for PM2.5 mass, nitrate, and BC, likely indicating the influence of traffic-related emissions, growth, and break up of the boundary layer and formation of ammonium nitrate. Examination of PM2.5 components indicates the need to better understand the continuous composition of the unmeasured "other" category, because it contributes a significant fraction to total mass during periods of high PM2.5 loading. Selected episodes are presented to illustrate applications of SEARCH data. An SO2 conversion rate of 0.2%/hr is derived from an observation of a plume from a coal-fired power plant during early spring, and the importance of local, rural sources of NH3 to the formation of ammonium nitrate in particulate matter (PM) is demonstrated.     

Continuous gaseous and total ammonia measurements from the southeastern aerosol research and characterization (SEARCH) study

Continuous ammonia (NH₃) measurements with a temporal resolution of 5 min were implemented at selected SEARCH sites in the southeastern U. S. during 2007. The SEARCH continuous NH₃ instrument uses a citric acid denuder difference technique employing a dual-channel nitric oxide-ozone chemiluminescence analyzer. Data from two SEARCH sites are presented, Jefferson Street, Atlanta (JST) (urban), and Yorkville, Georgia (YRK) (rural), for the period July–December, 2007. Highest NH_x (total ammonia = gaseous NH₃ + PM_2.5 NH₄⁺) values were observed in August and September at both JST and YRK. Highest NH₃ values occurred in August and September at JST, but in August through October at YRK. Lowest NH₃ and NH_x values occurred in December at both sites. YRK is significantly impacted by nearby poultry sources, routinely experiencing hourly average NH₃ mixing ratios above 20 ppbv. Wind sector analysis clearly implicates the nearby poultry operations as the source of the high NH₃ values. Weekday versus weekend differences in composite hourly mean diurnal profiles of NH₃ at JST indicate that mobile sources have a measurable but relatively small impact on NH₃ observed at that site, and little or no impact on NH₃ observed at YRK. A distinctive composite mean hourly diurnal variation was observed at both JST and YRK, exhibiting maxima in the morning and evening with a broad minimum during midday. Analysis of observed NH₃ diurnal variations from the literature suggests a hypothesized mechanism for the observed behavior based on interaction of local emissions and dry deposition with the formation and collapse of the dynamically mixed atmospheric boundary layer during the day and shallow nocturnal layer at night. Simple mixed layer concentration box model simulations confirm the plausibility of the suggested mechanism.     

Vegetation and climate

Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO₂ concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO₂—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change.     

Practical Precautionary Resource Management Using Robust Optimization

Uncertainties inherent in fisheries motivate a precautionary approach to management, meaning an approach specifically intended to avoid bad outcomes. Stochastic dynamic optimization models, which have been in the fisheries literature for decades, provide a framework for decision making when uncertain outcomes have known probabilities. However, most such models incorporate population dynamics models for which the parameters are assumed known. In this paper, we apply a robust optimization approach to capture a form of uncertainty nearly universal in fisheries, uncertainty regarding the values of model parameters. Our approach, developed by Nilim and El Ghaoui (Oper Res 53(5):780–798, 2005), establishes bounds on parameter values based on the available data and the degree of precaution that the decision maker chooses. To demonstrate the applicability of the method to fisheries management problems, we use a simple example, the Skeena River sockeye salmon fishery. We show that robust optimization offers a structured and computationally tractable approach to formulating precautionary harvest policies. Moreover, as better information about the resource becomes available, less conservative management is possible without reducing the level of precaution.     

PFAS Experts Symposium: Statements on regulatory policy,chemistry and analytics,toxicology, transport/fate,and remediation for per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination issues

Sixty leading members of the scientific, engineering, regulatory, and legal communities assembled for the PFAS Experts Symposium in Arlington, Virginia on May 20 and 21, 2019 to discuss issues related to per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) based on the quickly evolving developments of PFAS regulations, chemistry and analytics, transport and fate concepts, toxicology, and remediation technologies.  The Symposium created a venue for experts with various specialized skills to provide opinions and trade perspectives on existing and new approaches to PFAS assessment and remediation in light of lessons learned managing other contaminants encountered over the past four decades. The following summarizes several consensus points developed as an outcome of the Symposium:

• Regulatory and policy issues: The response by many states and the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to media exposure and public pressure related to PFAS contamination is to relatively quickly initiate programs to regulate PFAS sites. This includes the USEPA establishing relatively low lifetime health advisory levels for PFAS in drinking water and even more stringent guidance and standards in several states. In addition, if PFAS are designated as hazardous substances at the federal level, as proposed by several Congressional bills, there could be wide‐reaching effects including listing of new Superfund sites solely for PFAS, application of stringent state standards, additional characterization and remediation at existing sites, reopening of closed sites, and cost renegotiation among PRPs.
• Chemistry and analytics: PFAS analysis is confounded by the lack of regulatory‐approved methods for most PFAS in water and all PFAS in solid media and air, interference with current water‐based analytical methods if samples contain high levels of suspended solids, and sample collection and analytical interference due to the presence of PFAS in common consumer products, sampling equipment, and laboratory materials.
• Toxicology and risk: Uncertainties remain related to human health and ecological effects for most PFAS; however, regulatory standards and guidance are being established incorporating safety factors that result in part per trillion (ppt) cleanup objectives. Given the thousands of PFAS that may be present in the environment, a more appropriate paradigm may be to develop toxicity criteria for groups of PFAS rather than individual PFAS.
• Transport and fate: The recalcitrance of many perfluoroalkyl compounds and the capability of some fluorotelomers to transform into perfluoroalkyl compounds complicate conceptual site models at many PFAS sites, particularly those involving complex mixtures, such as firefighting foams. Research is warranted to better understand the physicochemical properties and corresponding transport and fate of most PFAS, of branched and linear isomers of the same compounds, and of the interactions of PFAS with other co‐contaminants such as nonaqueous phase liquids. Many PFAS exhibit complex transport mechanisms, particularly at the air/water interface, and it is uncertain whether traditional transport principles apply to the ppt levels important to PFAS projects. Existing analytical methods are sufficient when combined with the many advances in site characterization techniques to move rapidly forward at selected sites to develop and test process‐based conceptual site models.
• Existing remediation technologies and research: Current technologies largely focus on separation (sorption, ion exchange, or sequestration). Due to diversity in PFAS properties, effective treatment will likely require treatment trains. Monitored natural attenuation will not likely involve destructive reactions, but be driven by processes such as matrix diffusion, sorption, dispersion, and dilution.

The consensus message from the Symposium participants is that PFAS present far more complex challenges to the environmental community than prior contaminants. This is because, in contrast to chlorinated solvents, PFAS are severely complicated by their mobility, persistence, toxicological uncertainties, and technical obstacles to remediation—all under the backdrop of stringent regulatory and policy developments that vary by state and will be further driven by USEPA. Concern was expressed about the time, expense, and complexity required to remediate PFAS sites and whether the challenges of PFAS warrant alternative approaches to site cleanups, including the notion that adaptive management and technical impracticability waivers may be warranted at sites with expansive PFAS plumes. A paradigm shift towards receptor protection rather than broad scale groundwater/aquifer remediation may be appropriate.     

New effects of Roundup on amphibians: predators reduce herbicide mortality; herbicides induce antipredator morphology

The use of pesticides is important for growing crops and protecting human health by reducing the prevalence of targeted pest species. However, less attention is given to the potential unintended effects on nontarget species, including taxonomic groups that are of current conservation concern. One issue raised in recent years is the potential for pesticides to become more lethal in the presence of predatory cues, a phenomenon observed thus far only in the laboratory. A second issue is whether pesticides can induce unintended trait changes in nontarget species, particularly trait changes that might mimic adaptive responses to natural environmental stressors. Using outdoor mesocosms, I created simple wetland communities containing leaf litter, algae, zooplankton, and three species of tadpoles (wood frogs [Rana sylvatica or Lithobates sylvaticus], leopard frogs [R. pipiens or L. pipiens], and American toads [Bufo americanus or Anaxyrus americanus]). I exposed the communities to a factorial combination of environmentally relevant herbicide concentrations (0, 1, 2, or 3 mg acid equivalents [a.e.]/L of Roundup Original MAX) crossed with three predator-cue treatments (no predators, adult newts [Notophthalmus viridescens], or larval dragonflies [Anax junius]). Without predator cues, mortality rates from Roundup were consistent with past studies. Combined with cues from the most risky predator (i.e., dragonflies), Roundup became less lethal (in direct contrast to past laboratory studies). This reduction in mortality was likely caused by the herbicide stratifying in the water column and predator cues scaring the tadpoles down to the benthos where herbicide concentrations were lower. Even more striking was the discovery that Roundup induced morphological changes in the tadpoles. In wood frog and leopard frog tadpoles, Roundup induced relatively deeper tails in the same direction and of the same magnitude as the adaptive changes induced by dragonfly cues. To my knowledge, this is the first study to show that a pesticide can induce morphological changes in a vertebrate. Moreover, the data suggest that the herbicide might be activating the tadpoles' developmental pathways used for antipredator responses. Collectively, these discoveries suggest that the world's most widely applied herbicide may have much further-reaching effects on nontarget species than previous considered.