Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.     

不同富营养状态下沼蛤的存活与行为特性研究

通过设计不同富营养状态下沼蛤的行为特性的控制实验,探讨了不同富营养状态下沼蛤的生存、运动和粘附特性。研究结果为:(1)富营养状态最优(贫营养)水质不适宜沼蛤的粘附,但是适宜其生存,因此移动距离最短,运动能力最差。轻度富营养水质适宜沼蛤的生存。富营养状态最差(重度富营养)不适宜沼蛤的生存,因此移动距离最远,能生存下来的沼蛤运动能力最强。(2)在不同营养盐浓度下的重度富营养状态水质中,沼蛤适宜在营养盐浓度较低的水体中生存,营养盐浓度越高越不适宜沼蛤生存;营养盐浓度越高越不适宜沼蛤粘附,营养盐浓度相对而言较低的水体适宜沼蛤粘附。(3)在不同藻浓度下的重度富营养水质中,沼蛤适宜在藻浓度较低的水体中生存,藻浓度越高越不适宜沼蛤生存;藻浓度越高越不适宜沼蛤粘附,藻浓度相对而言较低的水体适宜沼蛤粘附;低藻浓度水体相对而言更适宜沼蛤生存,因此移动距离最短,运动能力最差,高藻浓度水体不适宜沼蛤生存,因此移动距离最远,能生存下来的沼蛤运动能力最强。富营养状态是影响沼蛤生长、粘附和运动的关键要素,轻度富营养化状态最适宜沼蛤生长和粘附。水体中营养盐浓度和浮游植物浓度也是影响沼蛤生长、粘附和运动的关键要素,重度富营养化状态中营养盐浓度和浮游植物浓度越低,越适宜适宜沼蛤生长和粘附。     

Mapping epistemic cultures and learning potential of participants in citizen science projects

The ever‐widening scope and range of global change and interconnected systemic risks arising from people–environment relationships (social‐ecological risks) appears to be increasing concern among, and involvement of, citizens in an increasingly diversified number of citizen science projects responding to these risks. We examined the relationship between epistemic cultures in citizen science projects and learning potential related to matters of concern. We then developed a typology of purposes and a citizen science epistemic‐cultures heuristic and mapped 56 projects in southern Africa using this framework. The purpose typology represents the range of knowledge‐production purposes, ranging from laboratory science to social learning, whereas the epistemic‐cultures typology is a relational representation of scientist and citizen participation and their approach to knowledge production. Results showed an iterative relationship between matters of fact and matters of concern across the projects; the nexus of citizens’ engagement in knowledge‐production activities varied. The knowledge‐production purposes informed and shaped the epistemic cultures of all the sampled citizen science projects, which in turn influenced the potential for learning within each project. Through a historical review of 3 phases in a long‐term river health‐monitoring project, we found that it is possible to evolve the learning curve of citizen science projects. This evolution involved the development of scientific water monitoring tools, the parallel development of pedagogic practices supporting monitoring activities, and situated engagement around matters of concern within social activism leading to learning‐led change. We conclude that such evolutionary processes serve to increase potential for learning and are necessary if citizen science is to contribute to wider restructuring of the epistemic culture of science under conditions of expanding social‐ecological risk.     

腐蚀损伤对典型铝合金结构疲劳寿命的影响研究

目的研究严酷服役条件下飞机结构的寿命衰减问题。方法以飞机关键结构模拟件为研究对象,基于编制的某机场环境加速试验谱进行当量加速腐蚀试验,采用MTS810材料试验系统进行预腐蚀后的疲劳试验。结果通过对试验结果的分析,确定了关键结构疲劳寿命腐蚀影响系数与腐蚀损伤尺寸之间的对应关系。结论关键结构腐蚀损伤宽度与疲劳寿命腐蚀影响系数相关性最好。     

Is micronucleus assay in oral exfoliated cells a suitable tool for biomonitoring children exposed to environmental pollutants? A systematic review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The aim of this review was to evaluate if micronucleus assay in oral exfoliated cells is a suitable tool for biomonitoring children exposed to...     

Impact of Perceived Importance of Ecosystem Services and Stated Financial Constraints on Willingness to Pay for Riparian Meadow Restoration in Flanders (Belgium)

The strategic importance of ecosystem service valuation as an operational basis for policy decisions on natural restoration has been increasingly recognized in order to align the provision of ecosystem services with the expectation of human society. The contingent valuation method (CVM) is widely used to quantify various ecosystem services. However, two areas of concern arise: (1) whether people value specific functional ecosystem services and overlook some intrinsic aspects of natural restoration, and (2) whether people understand the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules given in the contingent scenarios. Using a peri-urban riparian meadow restoration project in Flanders, Belgium as a case, we explored the impacts of residents’ perceived importance of various ecosystem services and stated financial constraints on their willingness-to-pay for the proposed restoration project employing the CVM. The results indicated that people tended to value all the benefits of riparian ecosystem restoration concurrently, although they accorded different importances to each individual category of ecosystem services. A longer payment scheme can help the respondents to think more about the flow of ecosystem services into future generations. A weak temporal embedding effect can be detected, which might be attributed to respondents’ concern about current financial constraints, rather than financial bindings associated with their income and perceived future financial constraints. This demonstrates the multidimensionality of respondents’ financial concerns in CV. This study sheds light on refining future CV studies, especially with regard to public expectation of ecosystem services and the temporal dimension of ecosystem services and payment schedules.     

基于腐蚀电流的加速腐蚀关系可靠性模型

目的通过对加速腐蚀关系的研究,为飞机的日历寿命的确定提供依据。方法首先提出基于腐蚀电流的加速腐蚀关系可靠性模型,并通过测试极化曲线的方法得到LY12和ZL115两种飞机常用铝合金材料在蒸馏水及不同浓度Na Cl溶液中的腐蚀电流。结果由于材料缺陷分布的随机性,铝合金的腐蚀电流具有随机特征,且随着盐浓度的增加而增大。两种铝合金材料的加速腐蚀关系系数在统计上存在较大的差异,在3.5%盐浓度下(温度)考虑95%置信度的加速腐蚀关系系数,LY12铝合金为3.53、ZL115为2.32。结论本文基于腐蚀电流的加速腐蚀关系的研究可以很好地为飞机日历寿命确定提供依据。     

Occurrence and Trend of Hepatitis A Virus in Bivalve Molluscs Production Areas Following a Contamination Event

The aim of this study was to assess the trend of hepatitis A virus (HAV) in a coastal zone impacted by a contamination event, providing data for the development of management strategies. A total of 352 samples, including four bivalve mollusc species (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Solen vagina, Venus gallina and Donax trunculus), were taken over a period of 6 months from 27 production areas of the coast and analysis were performed according to ISO/TS 15216-1:2013. HAV presence was detected in 77 samples from 11 production areas and all positive results were related to samples collected in the first 3 months of the surveillance, during which HAV prevalence was 39.9% and values as high as 5096 genome copies/g were detected. A progressive reduction of viral contamination was evident during the first trimester of the monitoring, with prevalence decreasing from 78.8% in the first month, to 37.8% in the second and 3.9% in the third and quantitative levels reduced from an average value of 672 genome copies/g to 255 genome copies/g over a period of 4 weeks (virus half-life: 21.5 days). A regression analysis showed that, during the decreasing phase of the contamination, the data fitted a reciprocal quadratic model (Ra² = 0.921) and, based on the model, a residual presence of HAV could be estimated after negativization of the production areas. The statistical analysis of the results per shellfish species and per production area showed that there were limited differences in contamination prevalence and levels among diverse bivalve species, while a statistically significant difference was present in quantitative levels of one production area. These data could be useful for the development of both risk assessment models and code of practice for the management of viral contamination in primary production.     

One-year Surveillance of Human Enteric Viruses in Raw and Treated Wastewaters,Downstream River Waters,and Drinking Waters

Human enteric viruses are a major cause of waterborne diseases, and can be transmitted by contaminated water of all kinds, including drinking and recreational water. The objectives of the present study were to assess the occurrence of enteric viruses (enterovirus, norovirus, adenovirus, hepatitis A and E virus) in raw and treated wastewaters, in rivers receiving wastewater discharges, and in drinking waters. Wastewater treatment plants’ (WWTP) pathogen removal efficiencies by adenovirus quantitative real-time PCR and the presence of infectious enterovirus, by cell culture assays, in treated wastewaters and in surface waters were also evaluated. A total of 90 water samples were collected: raw and treated wastewaters (treated effluents and ultrafiltered water reused for industrial purposes), water from two rivers receiving treated discharges, and drinking water. Nested PCR assays were used for the identification of viral DNA/RNA, followed by direct amplicon sequencing. All raw sewage samples (21/21), 61.9 % of treated wastewater samples (13/21), and 25 % of ultrafiltered water samples (3/12) were contaminated with at least one viral family. Multiple virus families and genera were frequently detected. Mean positive PCRs per sample decreased significantly from raw to treated sewage and to ultrafiltered waters. Moreover, quantitative adenovirus data showed a reduction in excess of 99 % in viral genome copies following wastewater treatment. In surface waters, 78.6 % (22/28) of samples tested positive for one or more viruses by molecular methods, but enterovirus-specific infectivity assays did not reveal infectious particles in these samples. All drinking water samples tested negative for all viruses, demonstrating the effectiveness of treatment in removing viral pathogens from drinking water. Integrated strategies to manage water from all sources are crucial to ensure water quality.