Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Observations of particle growth at a remote,Arctic site

Observations of particle size distributions suggest that particles grow significantly just above the snow surface at a remote, Arctic site. Measurements were made at Summit, Greenland (71.38°N and 31.98°W) at approximately 3200 m above sea level. No new particle formation was observed locally, but growth of ultrafine particles was identified by continuous evolution of the geometric mean diameter (GMD) during four events. The duration of the growth during events was between 24 and 115 h, and calculated event-average growth rates (GR) were 0.09, 0.30, 0.27, and 0.18 nm h^?1 during each event, respectively. Four-hour GR up to 0.96 nm h^?1 were observed. Events occurred during below- and above-average temperatures and were independent of wind direction. Correlation analysis of hourly-calculated GR suggested that particle growth was limited by the availability of photochemically produced precursor gases. Sulfuric acid played a very minor role in particle growth, which was likely dominated by condensation of organic compounds, the source of which was presumably the snow surface. The role of boundary layer dynamics is not definite, although some mixing at the surface is necessary for the observation of particle growth. Due to the potentially large geographic extent of events, observations described here may provide a link between long-range transport of mid-latitude pollutants and climate regulation in the remote Arctic.     

The economics of harem maintenance in the sac-winged bat, Saccopteryx bilineata (Emballonuridae)

Saccopteryx bilineata has a polygynous mating system in which males defend females in a harem territory. Harem defense and courtship include energetically costly flight maneuvers and hovering displays. We tested if (1) harem males have a greater field metabolic rate than non-harem males or females and if (2) the field metabolic rate of harem males is correlated with the number of females in a harem territory. We measured the energy budget in 32 S. bilineata with the doubly labeled water method and compared these estimates with behavioral observations in the daytime roost. Among adult bats, field metabolic rate varied with body mass by an exponent of approximately two. We found no significant difference in field metabolic rate or mass-specific field metabolic rate between harem and non-harem males. The mass-specific field metabolic rate of harem-males increased with harem size. The latter finding supports the hypothesis that the energy costs of courtship display and territorial defense influence the energy budget of harem males. Overall, field metabolic rates of S. bilineata were lower than those of similarly sized bats of the temperate zone and only 2.3 times above the basal metabolic rate recorded for this species. We suggest that male S. bilineata did not take advantage of their metabolic capacity because a prudent allocation of energy to activities of harem maintenance is an adaptive strategy for males in this mating system.     

The viability of professional wet cleaning as a pollution prevention alternative to perchloroethylene dry cleaning

The vast majority of dry cleaners worldwide use the toxic chemical perchloroethylene (PCE), which is associated with a number of adverse health and environmental impacts. Professional wet cleaning was developed as a nontoxic alternative to PCE dry cleaning but has not been widely adopted as substitute technology. In the greater Los Angeles, CA, region, a demonstration project was set up to showcase this technology and evaluate its commercial viability by converting seven cleaners from PCE dry cleaning to professional wet cleaning. The demonstration site cleaners who switched to professional wet cleaning were able to maintain their level of service and customer base while lowering operating costs. The cleaners were able to transition to professional wet cleaning without a great degree of difficulty and expressed a high level of satisfaction with professional wet cleaning. Crucial to this success was the existence of the demonstration project, which helped to develop a supporting infrastructure for professional wet cleaning that had otherwise been lacking in the garment care industry.     

Assessing depleted uranium (DU) contamination of soil, plants and earthworms at UK weapons testing sites

Depleted uranium (DU) weapons testing programmes have been conducted at two locations within the UK. An investigation was therefore carried out to assess the extent of any environmental contamination arising from these test programmes using both alpha spectrometry and mass spectrometry techniques. Uranium isotopic signatures indicative of DU contamination were observed in soil, plant and earthworm samples collected in the immediate vicinity of test firing points and targets, but contamination was found to be localised to these areas. This paper demonstrates the superiority of the (235)U : (238)U ratio over the (234)U : (238)U ratio for identifying and quantifying DU contamination in environmental samples, and also describes the respective circumstances under which alpha spectrometry or mass spectrometry may be the more appropriate analytical tool.     

A small subsurface ion mobility spectrometer sensor for detecting environmental soil-gas contaminants

A small subsurface ion mobility spectrometer (SS-IMS) was constructed and tested with several environmental contaminants to determine its potential for monitoring gaseous volatile organic compounds in the vadose zone. Trichloroethylene (TCE) and tetrachloroethylene (PCE) were detected and separated in IMS for the first time. Detection limits as low as 1 part per billion volume-to-volume (ppb(v)) were observed. Reduced mobility (K(0)) values were reported for 11 environmental contaminants. These data demonstrated the potential of ion mobility spectrometry as a viable technology for detecting and separating environmental soil-gas contaminants in the field, which may lead to a practical and simple approach for long-term monitoring of contaminated soils.     

Flow injection analysis of trace chromium (VI) in drinking water with a liquid waveguide capillary cell and spectrophotometric detection

Hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) is an acknowledged hazardous material in drinking waters. As such, effective monitoring and assessment of the risks posed by Cr(VI) are important analytical objectives for both human health and environmental science. However, because of the lack of highly sensitive, rapid, and simple procedures, a relatively limited number of studies have been carried out in this field. Here we report a simple and sensitive analytical procedure of flow injection analysis (FIA) for sub-nanomolar Cr(VI) in drinking water samples with a liquid core waveguide capillary cell (LWCC). The procedure is based on a highly selective reaction between 1, 5-diphenylcarbazide and Cr(VI) under acidic conditions. The optimized experimental parameters included reagent concentrations, injection volume, length of mixing coil, and flow rate. Measurements at 540 nm, and a 650-nm reference wavelength, produced a 0.12-nM detection limit. Relative standard deviations for 1, 2, and 10 nM samples were 5.6, 3.6, and 0.72 % (n?=?9), and the analysis time was <2 min sample^?1. The effects of salinity and interfering ions, especially Fe(III), were evaluated. Using the FIA-LWCC method, different sources of bottled waters and tap waters were examined. The Cr(VI) concentrations of the bottled waters ranged from the detection limit to ～20 nM, and tap waters collected from the same community supply had Cr(VI) concentration around 14 nM.     

The problem of using fixed-area subsampling methods to estimate macroinvertebrate richness: a case study with Neotropical stream data

Subsampling has been widely applied in the laboratory to process freshwater macroinvertebrate samples. Currently, many governmental agencies and research groups apply the fixed-count approach, targeting a number of individuals per sample, and at the same time keeping track of the number of quadrats (fraction of the sample) processed. However, fixed-area methods are still in use. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the reliability of macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness estimates developed from processing a standard number of subsampling quadrats (i.e., fixed-area approaches). We used a dataset from 18 tropical stream sites experiencing three different levels of human disturbance (most-, intermediate-, and least-disturbed). With 12 quadrats processed (half the sample), the collection curves started to stabilize, and for more than half of the sites studied, it was possible to sample at least 80 % of the total taxonomic richness of the sample. However, we observed that the minimum number of quadrats to achieve 80 % of taxonomic richness was strongly negatively correlated with the number of individuals collected in each site: the fewer the individuals in a sample, the greater the processed proportion of that sample needed to represent it properly. Thus our results indicate that for any given areal subsampling effort (any fixed fraction of the sample), samples with different numbers of individuals will be represented differently in terms of the proportion of the total number of taxa of the whole samples, those with greater numbers being overestimated and those with fewer numbers being underestimated. Therefore, we do not recommend the use of fixed-area subsampling methods alone if the main purpose is to measure and analyze taxonomic richness; instead, we encourage researchers to use fixed-count approaches for this purpose.     

Status of Aquatic Bioassessment in U.S. EPA Region IX

U.S. EPA Region IX is supporting bioassessment programs in Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada using biocriteria program and Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (R-EMAP) resources. These programs are designed to improve the state, tribal and regional ability to determine the status of water quality. Biocriteria program funds were used to coordinate with Arizona, California and Hawaii which resulted in these states establishing reference conditions and in developing biological indices. U.S. EPA Region IX has initiated R-EMAP projects in California and Nevada. These U.S. EPA Region IX sponsored programs have provided an opportunity to interact with the States and provide them with technical and management support. In Arizona, several projects are being conducted to develop the State's bioassessment program. These include the development of a rotational random monitoring program; a regional reference approach for macroinvertebrate bioassessments; ecoregion approach to testing and adoption of an alternate regional classification system; and development of warm-water and cold-water indices of biological integrity. The indices are projected to be used in the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) 2000 water quality assessment report. In California, an Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) has been developed for the Russian River Watershed using resources from U.S. EPA's Non-point Source (NPS) Program grants. A regional IBI is under development for certain water bodies in the San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board. Resources from the U.S. EPA Biocriteria program are being used to support the California Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup (CABW) in conjunction with the California Department of Fish & Game (CDFG), and to support the Hawaii Department of Health (DoH) Bioassessment Program to refine biological metrics. In Nevada, R-EMAP resources are being used to create a baseline of aquatic information for the Humboldt River watershed. U.S. EPA Region IX is presently working with the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) to establish a Nevada Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup. Future R-EMAP studies will occur in the Calleguas Creek watershed in Southern California, and in the Muddy and Virgin River watersheds in southern Nevada, and the Walker River watershed in eastern California and west-central Nevada.