Timing of hurricane emergency actions

Emergency actions to prepare for hurricanes often require more time than is available from official public warnings. This means that the preparedness official must decide not onlywhat to do butwhen to do it. The action decision system, described here, developed for use in the State of Florida, reformats the hurricane track forecast, a 72-h projection, prepared at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, to specify the probability of a strike at each of 12 vulnerable coastal communities, and then normalizes the value in terms of a composite of probabilities computed for historic hurricanes that struck the respective communities. The normalization, a ratio of the two probability values, current and historic, expressed as a percentage is defined as the level of risk. When this level reaches or exceeds 100% the risk level is defined as critical and the system recommends that emergency actions to prepare begin immediately.The system is founded upon individual hurricane climatologies and decision procedures that are tailored for use at each community. The action recommendations generated by the risk analyses with a 93% level of confidence relieve the preparedness official of the need to make meteorological decisions in timing evacuations and other critical measures, even when these must begin before official hurricane warnings are received.The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under a Cooperative Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The authors are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in the publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the government.     

Biomass and nutrient removals from commercial thinning and whole-tree clearcutting of central hardwoods

The objective of this research was to evaluate the impacts of increasing product removal on biomass and nutrient content of a central hardwood forest ecosystem. Commercial thinning, currently the most common harvesting practice in southern New England, was compared with whole-tree clearcutting or maximum aboveground utilization. Using a paired-watershed approach, we studied three adjacent, first-order streams in Connecticut. During the winter of 1981–82, one was whole-tree clearcut, one was commercially thinned, and one was designated as the untreated reference. Before treatment, living and dead biomass and soil on the whole-tree clearcut site contained 578 Mg ha^–1 organic matter, 5 Mg ha^–1 nitrogen, 1 Mg ha^–1 phosphorus, 5 Mg ha^–1 potassium, 4 Mg ha^–1 calcium, and 13 Mg ha^–1 magnesium. An estimated 158 Mg ha^–1 (27% of total organic matter) were removed during the whole-tree harvest. Calcium appeared to be the nutrient most susceptible to depletion with 13% of total site Ca removed in whole-tree clearcut products. In contrast, only 4% (16 Mg ha^–1) of the total organic matter and 2% of the total nutrients were removed from the thinned site. Partial cuts appear to be a reliable management option, in general, for minimizing nutrient depletion and maximizing long-term productivity of central hardwood sites. Additional data are needed to evaluate the long-term impacts of more intensive harvests.     

Global sustainability: Toward measurement

The widespread interest in the concept of sustainable environment and development has been accompanied by the need to develop useful systems of measurement. We discuss the use of indicators which might be used to assess such conditions. Our characteristics, or criteria, for desirable global sustainability indicators are:

sensitivity to change in time

sensitivity to change across space or within groups

predictive ability

availability of reference or threshold values

ability to measure reversibility or controllability

appropriate data transformation

integrative ability

relative ease of collection and use

We discuss the basis of these characteristics, and examine two categories of indicators (soil erosion and population) and two specific indicators (physical quality of life index and energy imports as a percentage of consumption) for their value as sustainability measures.     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

INFLUENCES OF INCREASED SAND DELIVERY ON THE MORPHOLOGY OF SAND AND GRAVEL CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT A flume study was conducted to examine (1)changes in the particle-size distribution of sediments in riffles due to the proportion of sand in transport and the total rate of bedload transport at the time the riffle is deposited and (2) the effect of high sand transport rates on the stability of gravel riffles. The median particle size of sediment deposited in the riffle was larger than that of the sediment in transport. Small but significant (a = 0.05) decreases in the median particle size of riffle sediments resulted as the sand-to-gravel ratio. Increased concentrations of sand in transport caused previously stable gravel riffles to undergo scour. These results, in combination with information from other studies, suggest that an alluvial channel with pool-riffle sequences and with sand and gravel beds may respond to an increased delivery of sand by reducing form roughness. Form roughness can be reduced by degrading riffles and filling pools. Subsequent responses may be increases in width-to-depth ratio and slope.     

TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.     

Effects of stream channelization on exports of nitrogen and phosphorus from north Carolina coastal plain watersheds

Nitrogen and phosphorus exports from channelizedstream watersheds were elevated over those from nearby natural swamp-stream watersheds. Nitrate exports were significantly greater from channelized-stream watersheds, and higher exports were attributed to faster groundwater drawdown, continual streamflow, and transformation of former floodplain to croplands following channelization. Exports of total organic nitrogen and total nitrogen were also significantly greater from channelized-stream watersheds. Differences in the exports of ammonium, filterable reactive phosphorus, and filterable unreactive phosphorus between the two watershed types were not detectable. Particulate phosphorus exports were significantly higher from channelized-stream watersheds, presumably because of greater erosion potential of nearby croplands and steep channel banks in the altered watersheds. The presence of nonpoint sources of pollution increased watershed exports of nutrients regardless of stream morphology. Examination of nutrient budgets for a portion of swamp floodplain at the base of one natural-stream watershed revealed that changes in local groundwater hydrology and stream morphology associated with channelization appeared to have greater effect on nutrient exports than simply the loss of bordering forested floodplain.     

Characterization of physicochemical properties of beryllium aerosols associated with prevalence of chronic beryllium disease

Little is known about the physicochemical properties of beryllium aerosols associated with increased risk of beryllium sensitization and chronic beryllium disease (CBD). Such information is needed to evaluate whether airborne mass of beryllium is the appropriate metric of exposure or alternatively to provide a scientific basis for using information on particle size, surface area, and chemistry to support an improved exposure limit based on bioavailability through the inhalation and dermal routes of exposure. Thus, we used a suite of analytical techniques to characterize aerodynamically size-fractionated beryllium particles and powders that have been associated in epidemiological studies with higher prevalence of CBD. Aerosol particles were sampled from the ventilation systems of production lines for powders of beryllium metal and beryllium oxide and for ingots of copper-beryllium alloy. End product powders from the metal and oxide production lines were also collected.Particles released during production of beryllium metal were found to be complex, having heterogeneous composition, including reactive species such as fluorine. Powders from beryllium metal production were of high purity with only a minor component of beryllium oxide. Both particles and powders from oxide production were high-purity oxide. Particles released during production of copper-beryllium alloy were heterogeneous, being predominantly copper oxides. Thus, all particles and powders contain at least some beryllium in the form of beryllium oxide.These data justify efforts to thoroughly characterize beryllium aerosol properties when performing exposure assessments. The data also suggest that differences in particle chemical composition, size, number, and surface area may influence bioavailability of beryllium and contribute to risk of CBD. However, a scientific basis does not yet exist to replace mass as the current metric of exposure.