Empirical models based on the universal soil loss equation fail to predict sediment discharges from Chesapeake Bay catchments

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its derivatives are widely used for identifying watersheds with a high potential for degrading stream water quality. We compared sediment yields estimated from regional application of the USLE, the automated revised RUSLE2, and five sediment delivery ratio algorithms to measured annual average sediment delivery in 78 catchments of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We did the same comparisons for another 23 catchments monitored by the USGS. Predictions exceeded observed sediment yields by more than 100% and were highly correlated with USLE erosion predictions (Pearson r range, 0.73-0.92; p < 0.001). RUSLE2-erosion estimates were highly correlated with USLE estimates (r = 0.87; p < 001), so the method of implementing the USLE model did not change the results. In ranked comparisons between observed and predicted sediment yields, the models failed to identify catchments with higher yields (r range, -0.28-0.00; p > 0.14). In a multiple regression analysis, soil erodibility, log (stream flow), basin shape (topographic relief ratio), the square-root transformed proportion of forest, and occurrence in the Appalachian Plateau province explained 55% of the observed variance in measured suspended sediment loads, but the model performed poorly (r(2) = 0.06) at predicting loads in the 23 USGS watersheds not used in fitting the model. The use of USLE or multiple regression models to predict sediment yields is not advisable despite their present widespread application. Integrated watershed models based on the USLE may also be unsuitable for making management decisions.     

Network design for water quality monitoring of surface freshwaters: a review

To date, many water quality monitoring networks for surface freshwaters have been rather haphazardly designed without a consistent or logical design strategy. Moreover, design practices in recent years indicate a need for cost-effective and logistically adaptable network design approaches. There are many variables that need to be included in a comprehensive yet practical monitoring network: a holistic appraisal of the monitoring objectives, representative sampling locations, suitable sampling frequencies, water quality variable selection, and budgetary and logistical constraints are examples. In order to investigate the factors which affect the development of an effective water quality monitoring network design methodology, a review of past and current approaches is presented.     

Validation of a hybrid life-cycle inventory analysis method

The life-cycle inventory analysis step of a life-cycle assessment (LCA) may currently suffer from several limitations, mainly concerned with the use of incomplete and unreliable data sources and methods of assessment. Many past LCA studies have used traditional inventory analysis methods, namely process analysis and input-output analysis. More recently, hybrid inventory analysis methods have been developed, combining these two traditional methods in an attempt to minimise their limitations. In light of recent improvements, these hybrid methods need to be compared and validated, as these too have been considered to have several limitations. This paper evaluates a recently developed hybrid inventory analysis method which aims to improve the limitations of previous methods. It was found that the truncation associated with process analysis can be up to 87%, reflecting the considerable shortcomings in the quantity of process data currently available. Capital inputs were found to account for up to 22% of the total inputs to a particular product. These findings suggest that current best-practice methods are sufficiently accurate for most typical applications, but this is heavily dependent upon data quality and availability. The use of input-output data assists in improving the system boundary completeness of life-cycle inventories. However, the use of input-output analysis alone does not always provide an accurate model for replacing process data. Further improvements in the quantity of process data currently available are needed to increase the reliability of life-cycle inventories.     

Life cycle assessment of waste paper management: The importance of technology data and system boundaries in assessing recycling and incineration

The significance of technical data, as well as the significance of system boundary choices, when modelling the environmental impact from recycling and incineration of waste paper has been studied by a life cycle assessment focusing on global warming potentials. The consequence of choosing a specific set of data for the reprocessing technology, the virgin paper manufacturing technology and the incineration technology, as well as the importance of the recycling rate was studied. Furthermore, the system was expanded to include forestry and to include fossil fuel energy substitution from saved biomass, in order to study the importance of the system boundary choices. For recycling, the choice of virgin paper manufacturing data is most important, but the results show that also the impacts from the reprocessing technologies fluctuate greatly. For the overall results the choice of the technology data is of importance when comparing recycling including virgin paper substitution with incineration including energy substitution. Combining an environmentally high or low performing recycling technology with an environmentally high or low performing incineration technology can give quite different results. The modelling showed that recycling of paper, from a life cycle point of view, is environmentally equal or better than incineration with energy recovery only when the recycling technology is at a high environmental performance level. However, the modelling also showed that expanding the system to include substitution of fossil fuel energy by production of energy from the saved biomass associated with recycling will give a completely different result. In this case recycling is always more beneficial than incineration, thus increased recycling is desirable. Expanding the system to include forestry was shown to have a minor effect on the results. As assessments are often performed with a set choice of data and a set recycling rate, it is questionable how useful the results from this kind of LCA are for a policy maker. The high significance of the system boundary choices stresses the importance of scientific discussion on how to best address system analysis of recycling, for paper and other recyclable materials.     

Projecting Cumulative Benefits of Multiple River Restoration Projects: An Example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River System in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.     

Assessment of the Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach: Case studies from Malawi and Uganda

This paper presents lessons from applying an innovative action research approach for linking smallholder farmers to markets, in eastern and southern Africa. The Enabling Rural Innovation (ERI) approach aims to strengthen social organization and entrepreneurial capacity in rural communities. It focuses on fostering community‐based capacity for the inclusion of rural women and the poor in analyzing and accessing market opportunities. Using case studies from Malawi and Uganda the paper assesses the outcomes of ERI on rural communities with a focus on human capital, gender issues and investment in natural resource management. Results show that households are benefiting significantly from linkages to markets in terms of increasing household incomes, and accumulating assets. Skills in analyzing markets and in negotiating with traders have increased among smallholder farmers. The integration of gender in the approach has led to changes in gender decision making patterns at household and community level towards a more shared decision‐making process. The results however show a difference in skills between men and women, with women showing lower levels of skills acquisition. Farmer participatory research has increased investments in improved technologies such as fertilizer applications for soil fertility management.     

Horizontal mergers in the iron ore industry—An application of PCAIDS

The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyse the price effects of the iron ore mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation, estimates the post-merger outcome. This paper applies the so-called proportionality-calibrated almost ideal demand system (PCAIDS) model, which assumes that the product is differentiated and that the strategic variable is price. The results from the merger simulations show that in the case of the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd, the merged firm has a combined market share of almost 20%. However, the estimated market weighted average price effect is only 2.6%. Regarding the merger between CVRD and Caemi, the merged firm's market share is about 29%, and the estimated market weighted average price effect is 4.6%. When removing Caemi's Canadian asset, which was the Commission decision in order to allow the merger, the market price effect decreases to 3.1%. Overall the results in this study support the Commission's decisions regarding both merger cases, and shows that merger simulations of price effects can be valuable tools in merger assessments.     

Implementation of resource management plans: identifying keys to success

One of the primary challenges in resource and environmental planning is successful implementation of plans. Plan implementation is a complex process influenced by many factors. This study identifies 19 criteria affecting implementation success and tests the impact of these criteria through a case study of collaborative plan implementation in British Columbia, Canada. The significance of criteria and degree to which they are met is assessed by a survey of senior officials responsible for plan implementation. An implementation evaluation index (IEI) is constructed to assess the quality of plan implementation systems and best practices for effective implementation are identified.     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.