Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.     

Female choice on male quantitative traits in lizards — why is it so rare?

Female choice on the basis of male traits has been described in an array of taxa but has rarely been demonstrated in reptiles. In the sand lizard (Lacerta agilis), and possibly in other non-territorial reptiles, a male's contribution to a female's fitness is restricted to his genes. In order to choose males of high genetic quality, females have to trade the fitness gain against the costs of active choice. In a Swedish population of sand lizards, long-lived males sired offspring with higher embryonic survival compared to offspring sired by short-lived males. In spite of this female sand lizards did not mate selectively with older and/or larger males. There appeared to be mo reliable cues to male longevity; age-specific male body size was highly variable. Furthermore, estimates of male nuptial coloration did not covary with ectoparasite load and, hence, females cannot use male coloration as a cue to heritable resistance to pathogenic parasite effects. When cues to male genetic quality are poor, or inaccurate, and males make no parental investment, we predict that female choice will be rare. Sand lizard females mating with many partners lay clutches with higher hatching success. Thus, females may obtain good genes for their young by multiple mating, thereby avoiding costs associated with mate choice.     

Genetic monogamy in the common loon (Gavia immer)

We conducted behavioral observations and genetic analysis on breeding pairs of common loons in the upper Great Lakes region from 1993 through 1995 to look for behavioral evidence of extrapair copulations (EPCs) and to determine parentage of young. Pairs remained close to each other (usually within 20 m) during the pre-laying period, leaving little opportunity for EPCs to occur. Males and females both maintained physical proximity by approaching each other when they became separated. Copulations were obvious but infrequent, occurring about once every other day during the pre-laying period. Multilocus DNA fingerprinting was consistent with behavioral findings: 58 young from 47 different families were all genetic offspring of parents that raised them. Perfect genetic monogamy (genetic parentage of young by parents that rear them) in loons might arise as a consequence of the need for vigorous territorial defense to prevent territorial takeover. Received: 8 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 March 1997     

The control of water collection in honey bee colonies

A honey bee (Apis mellifera) colony adaptively controls the collection of water by its foragers, increasing it when high temperatures necesssitate evaporative cooling inside the hive and decreasing it when the danger of overheating passes. This study analyzes the mechanisms controlling water collection once it has begun, that is, how a colony's water collectors know whether to continue or stop their activity. M. Lindauer suggested that water collectors acquire information about their colony's need for more water by noting how easily they can unload their water to bees inside the hive. In support of this hypothesis, we found that a water collector's ease of unloading does indeed change when her colony's need for water changes. How does a water collector sense the ease of unloading? Multiple variables of the unloading experience change in relation to a colony's water need. Three time-based variables – initial search time, total search time, and delivery time – all change quite strongly. But what changes most strongly is the number of unloading rejections (refusals by receiver bees to take the water), suggesting that this is the primary index of ease of unloading. Why does a water collector's ease of unloading change when her colony's need for water changes? Evidently, what links these two variables is change in the number of water receivers. These are middle-aged bees that receive water just inside the hive entrance, then transport it deeper inside the hive, and finally smear it on the walls of cells or give it to other bees, or both. A colony increases the number of water receivers when its water need increases by having bees engaged in nectar reception and other tasks (and possibly also bees that are not working) switch to the task of water reception. Evidently the activation of additional water receivers does not strongly reduce the number of nectar receivers in a colony, since a colony can increase greatly its water collection without simultaneously decreasing its collection of rich nectar. This study provides a clear example of the way that the members of a social insect colony can use indirect indicators of their colony's labor needs to adaptively control the work that they perform.     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996