GENETIC PROGRAMMING: A NEW PARADIGM IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic Programming (GP) is a domain‐independent evolutionary programming technique that evolves computer programs to solve, or approximately solve, problems. To verify GP's capability, a simple example with known relation in the area of symbolic regression, is considered first. GP is then utilized as a flow forecasting tool. A catchment in Singapore with a drainage area of about 6 km² is considered in this study. Six storms of different intensities and durations are used to train GP and then verify the trained GP. Analysis of the GP induced rainfall and runoff relationship shows that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is consistent with the hydrologic process. The result shows that the runoff prediction accuracy of symbolic regression based models, measured in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficient, is reasonably high. Thus, GP induced rainfall runoff relationships can be a viable alternative to traditional rainfall runoff models.     

AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH TOWARDS UNDERSTANDING ECOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO DAM REMOVAL: THE MANATAWNY CREEK STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Dam removal has been proposed as an effective method of river restoration, but few integrative studies have examined ecological responses to the removal of dams. In 1999, we initiated an interdisciplinary study to determine ecological responses to the removal of a 2 m high dam on lower Manatawny Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania. We used an integrative monitoring program to assess the physical, chemical, and biological responses to dam removal. Following removal in 2000, increased sediment transport has led to major changes in channel form in the former impoundment and downstream reaches. Water quality did not change markedly following removal, probably because of the impoundment's short hydraulic residence time (less than two hours at base flow) and infrequent temperature stratification. When the impoundment was converted to a free flowing reach, the composition of the benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages in this portion of Manatawny Creek shifted dramatically from lentic to lotic taxa. Some fish species inhabiting the free flowing reach downstream from the dam were negatively affected by large scale sediment transport and habitat alteration following dam removal, but this appears to be a short term response. Based on our observations and experiences in this study, we provide a list of issues to evaluate when considering future dam removals.     

APPLICATION OF TABU SEARCH TO GROUND WATER PARAMETER ZONATION1

ABSTRACT: The spatial distribution of hydrogeologic parameter is an important issue in ground water simulation. One of the methods is to divide an area into several zones such that parameters are assumed to be constant within zone. The purpose of this study is to apply Tabu Search (TS) to find the best zonation of parameters that can result in the best ground water simulation. The initial zonation can be determined as the Thiessen method, and then zonation is optimized by T.S. The mean square error between simulated and observed hydraulic heads was used as the objective function. A designed confined aquifer with known zonation was used as an example to test the proposed method. Results indicated that Tabu Search can locate the optimal zonation successfully and avoid being trapped by local optimal zonations. Besides this, four other arbitrary initial zonations can be directed to the optimal zonation by TS, which proves the robustness of the proposed method. The method proposed in this study is feasible and expected to work well in the field problems with sufficient sampling of concerned parameters.     

Changes in a reach of a northern California stream following wildfire

One reach of a northern California stream, burned by intense wildfire in 1979, was studied to monitor changes and recovery from the fire. Benthic macroinvertebrates collected three weeks and one to four, six, eight, and 11 years following the wildfire were used to assess stream condition and compared to samples from a reach of a nearby unburned stream. Transportable sediment was measured 11 years following the fire. The fire was also used as a worst case example to compare results with a standard cumulative watershed effects assessment methodology. Benthic invertebrate density and taxa richness of the burned reach were both low compared to the unburned reach three weeks after the fire. Mean density was significantly higher in the burned reach in the three years following the fire, while taxa richness was significantly lower in the burned reach over the same time period. Higher density and lower richness in the burned reaches persisted throughout the study period but were not significant after three years. Mean Shannon diversity of the burned reach was significantly lower than that of the unburned reach for each year of the study, although absolute differences diminished throughout the 11-year study period. Transportable sediment was significantly higher in the burned reach than the unburned comparison. Pearson correlations between sediment and biological metrics were weak. Although the correlation between invertebrate diversity and a measure of watershed disturbance (equivalent roaded acres) was high (r=0.95) for the burned watershed, the measure appeared to be a poor indicator of cumulative effects on stream condition. The measure (ERA) was poorly correlated with invertebrate diversity in the unburned reach and, while the ERA calculations indicated substantial recovery, biological and physical measures indicated recovery of the burned stream reach was incomplete.     

Consequences of Buffelgrass Pasture Development for Primary Productivity,Perennial Plant Richness,and Vegetation Structure in the Drylands of Sonora,Mexico

Abstract: In large parts of northern Mexico native plant communities are being converted to non‐native buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) pastures, and this conversion could fundamentally alter primary productivity and species richness. In Sonora, Mexico land conversion is occurring at a regional scale along a rainfall‐driven gradient of primary productivity, across which native plant communities transition from desert scrub to thorn scrub. We used a paired sampling design to compare a satellite‐derived index of primary productivity, richness of perennial plant species, and canopy‐height profiles of native plant communities with buffelgrass pastures. We sampled species richness across a gradient of primary productivity in desert scrub and thorn scrub vegetation to examine the influence of site productivity on the outcomes of land conversion. We also examined the influence of pasture age on species richness of perennial plants. Index values of primary productivity were lower in buffelgrass pastures than in native vegetation, which suggests a reduction in primary productivity. Land conversion reduced species richness by approximately 50% at local and regional scales, reduced tree and shrub cover by 78%, and reduced canopy height. Land conversion disproportionately reduced shrub species richness, which reflects the common practice among Sonoran ranchers of conserving certain tree and cactus species. Site productivity did not affect the outcomes of land conversion. The age of a buffelgrass pasture was unrelated to species richness within the pasture, which suggests that passive recovery of species richness to preconversion levels is unlikely. Our findings demonstrate that land conversion can result in large losses of plant species richness at local and regional scales and in substantial changes to primary productivity and vegetation structure, which casts doubt on the feasibility of restoring native plant communities without active intervention on the part of land managers.     

Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model1

Hao, Yonghong, Jiaojuan Zhao, Huamin Li, Bibo Cao, Zhongtang Li, and Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh, 2012. Karst Hydrological Processes and Grey System Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 656‐666. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00640.x Abstract: The karst hydrological processes are the response of karst groundwater system to precipitation. This study provided a concept model of karst hydrological processes. The hydraulic response time of spring discharge to precipitation includes the time that precipitation penetrates through the vadose zone, and the subsequent groundwater pressure wave propagates to a spring outlet. Due to heterogeneities in karst aquifers, the hydraulic response time is different in different areas. By using grey system theory, we proposed a karst hydrological model that offers a calculation of hydraulic response time, and a response model of spring discharge to precipitation. Then, we applied the models to the Liulin Springs Basin, China. In the south part of the Liulin Springs Basin, where large fields of carbonate rocks outcrop with intensive karstification, the hydraulic response time is one year. In the north, where the Ordovician karst aquifer is covered by Quaternary loess sediments, the response time is seven years. The grey system GM(1,3) response model of spring discharge to precipitation was applied in consideration of the hydraulic response time. The model calibration showed that the average error was 6.55%, and validation showed that the average error was 12.19%.     

Neural Network Input Selection for Hydrological Forecasting Affected by Snowmelt1

Abstract: Snowmelt largely affects runoff in watersheds in Nordic countries. Neural networks (NN) are particularly attractive for streamflow forecasting whereas they rely at least on daily streamflow and precipitation observations. The selection of pertinent model inputs is a major concern in NNs implementation. This study investigates performance of auxiliary NN inputs that allow short‐term streamflow forecasting without resorting to a deterministic snowmelt routine. A case study is presented for the Rivière des Anglais watershed (700 km²) located in Southern Québec, Canada. Streamflow (Q), precipitations (rain R and snow S, or total P), temperature (T) and snow lying (A) observations, combined with climatic and snowmelt proxy data, including snowmelt flow (Q_SM) obtained from a deterministic model, were tested. NN implemented with antecedent Q and R produced the largest gains in performance. Introducing increments of A and T to the NNs further improved the performance. Long‐term averages, seasonal data, and Q_SM failed to improve the networks.     

Tributyltin distribution and producing androgenic activity in water,sediment, and fish muscle

This study investigated the concentrations of Tributyltin (TBT) in water, sediment, and fish muscle samples taken from Kaohsiung Harbor and Kaoping River estuary, Taiwan. TBT concentrations in water and sediment samples ranged from less than 18.5 to 34.1 ng Sn L^?1 and from 2.44 to 29.7 ng Sn g^?1 weight per weight (w/w), respectively. Concentrations in the TBT‐contaminated fish muscle samples ranged from 10.8 to 79.6 ng Sn g^?1 w/w. The TBT concentrations in fish muscle were higher than those in water and sediment samples. The fish muscle/water TBT bioconcentration factor (BCF) ranged from 590 to 3363 L kg^?1. Additionally, the water samples were assessed for androgenic activity with an MCF7‐AR1 human breast cancer cell line. The androgenic activity ranged from 0.94 to 3.1 ng‐dihydrotestosterone per litre water (ng‐DHT L^?1). Higher concentrations of TBT in water and sediment samples occurred in the dry season, but the androgenic activity had higher values in the rainy season.     

Gastrointestinal Bacterial Transmission among Humans,Mountain Gorillas,and Livestock in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,Uganda

Abstract: Habitat overlap can increase the risks of anthroponotic and zoonotic pathogen transmission between humans, livestock, and wild apes. We collected Escherichia coli bacteria from humans, livestock, and mountain gorillas (Gorilla gorilla beringei) in Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda, from May to August 2005 to examine whether habitat overlap influences rates and patterns of pathogen transmission between humans and apes and whether livestock might facilitate transmission. We genotyped 496 E. coli isolates with repetitive extragenic palindromic polymerase chain reaction fingerprinting and measured susceptibility to 11 antibiotics with the disc‐diffusion method. We conducted population genetic analyses to examine genetic differences among populations of bacteria from different hosts and locations. Gorilla populations that overlapped in their use of habitat at high rates with people and livestock harbored E. coli that were genetically similar to E. coli from those people and livestock, whereas E. coli from gorillas that did not overlap in their use of habitats with people and livestock were more distantly related to human or livestock bacteria. Thirty‐five percent of isolates from humans, 27% of isolates from livestock, and 17% of isolates from gorillas were clinically resistant to at least one antibiotic used by local people, and the proportion of individual gorillas harboring resistant isolates declined across populations in proportion to decreasing degrees of habitat overlap with humans. These patterns of genetic similarity and antibiotic resistance among E. coli from populations of apes, humans, and livestock indicate that habitat overlap between species affects the dynamics of gastrointestinal bacterial transmission, perhaps through domestic animal intermediates and the physical environment. Limiting such transmission would benefit human and domestic animal health and ape conservation.