Air quality impact assessment

Air quality impact assessment (AQIA) is an important technique for determining the relative contribution to ground level pollutant concentrations of specific current or future source emissions at receptor sites. The principal activities in AQIA are air quality modelling and monitoring techniques. The choice of techniques which are applicable to a particular situation is intimately related to the problem to be assessed. A review of relevant modelling techniques has been presented, with emphasis placed on Gaussian plume models because of their ease of use and broad applicability. Alternative modelling techniques have been suggested when departures from the Gaussian form in the atmosphere occurs or when more detailed information on atmospheric chemistry, deposition or long range transport is required. The objectives and techniques of ambient air quality monitoring have been examined and the siting of instruments, duration and frequency of sampling, choice of monitoring rationale (fixed or mobile), minimization of sampling errors, data storage and analysis are discussed. Modelling and monitoring are essential to successful AQIA. An orderly approach to the principles and procedures involved in performing AQIA studies, using these two techniques in conjunction, has been presented.     

Spatial Convergence in Major Dissolved Ion Concentrations and Implications of Headwater Mining for Downstream Water Quality

Spatial patterns in major dissolved solute concentrations were examined to better understand impact of surface coal mining in headwaters on downstream water chemistry. Sixty sites were sampled seasonally from 2012 to 2014 in an eastern Kentucky watershed. Watershed areas (WA) ranged from 1.6 to 400.5 km² and were mostly forested (58%–95%), but some drained as much as 31% surface mining. Measures of total dissolved solutes and most component ions were positively correlated with mining. Analytes showed strong convergent spatial patterns with high variability in headwaters (<15 km² WA) that stabilized downstream (WA > 75 km²), indicating hydrologic mixing primarily controls downstream values. Mean headwater solute concentrations were a good predictor of downstream values, with % differences ranging from 0.55% (Na⁺) to 28.78% (Mg²⁺). In a mined scenario where all headwaters had impacts, downstream solute concentrations roughly doubled. Alternatively, if mining impacts to headwaters were minimized, downstream solute concentrations better approximated the 300 μS/cm conductivity criterion deemed protective of aquatic life. Temporal variability also had convergent spatial patterns and mined streams were less variable due to unnaturally stable hydrology. The highly conserved nature of dissolved solutes from mining activities and lack of viable treatment options suggest forested, unmined watersheds would provide dilution that would be protective of downstream aquatic life.     

Towards Real‐Time Continental Scale Streamflow Simulation in Continuous and Discrete Space

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF‐Hydro framework, initialized on a 3‐km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real‐time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three‐month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias ≤ |25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias ≤ |25%| and NSE ≥ 0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE ≥ 0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE ≥ 0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.     

The influence of organic acids in relation to acid deposition in controlling the acidity of soil and stream waters on a seasonal basis

Much uncertainty still exists regarding the relative importance of organic acids in relation to acid deposition in controlling the acidity of soil and surface waters. This paper contributes to this debate by presenting analysis of seasonal variations in atmospheric deposition, soil solution and stream water chemistry for two UK headwater catchments with contrasting soils. Acid neutralising capacity (ANC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and the Na:Cl ratio of soil and stream waters displayed strong seasonal patterns with little seasonal variation observed in soil water pH. These patterns, plus the strong relationships between ANC, Cl and DOC, suggest that cation exchange and seasonal changes in the production of DOC and seasalt deposition are driving a shift in the proportion of acidity attributable to strong acid anions, from atmospheric deposition, during winter to predominantly organic acids in summer.     

Selenium stable isotope investigation into selenium biogeochemical cycling in a lacustrine environment: Sweitzer Lake, Colorado

We present a comprehensive set of Se concentration and isotope ratio data collected over a 3-yr period from dissolved, sediment-hosted, and organically bound Se in a Se-contaminated lake and littoral wetland. Median isotope ratios of these various pools of Se spanned a narrow isotopic range (delta80/76Se(SRM-3149)) = 1.14-2.40 per thousand). Selenium (VI) reduction in the sediments is an important process in this system, but its isotopic impact is muted by the lack of direct contact between surface waters and reduction sites within sediments. This indicates that using Se isotope data as an indicator of microbial or abiotic Se oxyanion reduction is not effective in this or other similar systems. Isotopic data suggest that most Se(IV) in the lake originates from oxidation of organically bound Se rather than directly through Se(VI) reduction. Mobilization of Se(VI) from bedrock involves only a slight isotopic shift. Temporally constant isotopic differences observed in Se(VI) from two catchment areas suggest the potential for tracing Se(VI) from different source areas. Phytoplankton isotope ratios are close to those of the water, with a small depletion in heavy isotopes (0.56 per thousand). Fish tissues nearly match the phytoplankton, being only slightly depleted in the heavier isotopes. This suggests the potential for Se isotopes as migration indicators. Volatile, presumably methylated Se was isotopically very close to median values for phytoplankton and macrophytes, indicating a lack of isotopic fractionation during methylation.     

Mainstreaming the social sciences in conservation

Despite broad recognition of the value of social sciences and increasingly vocal calls for better engagement with the human element of conservation, the conservation social sciences remain misunderstood and underutilized in practice. The conservation social sciences can provide unique and important contributions to society's understanding of the relationships between humans and nature and to improving conservation practice and outcomes. There are 4 barriers—ideological, institutional, knowledge, and capacity—to meaningful integration of the social sciences into conservation. We provide practical guidance on overcoming these barriers to mainstream the social sciences in conservation science, practice, and policy. Broadly, we recommend fostering knowledge on the scope and contributions of the social sciences to conservation, including social scientists from the inception of interdisciplinary research projects, incorporating social science research and insights during all stages of conservation planning and implementation, building social science capacity at all scales in conservation organizations and agencies, and promoting engagement with the social sciences in and through global conservation policy‐influencing organizations. Conservation social scientists, too, need to be willing to engage with natural science knowledge and to communicate insights and recommendations clearly. We urge the conservation community to move beyond superficial engagement with the conservation social sciences. A more inclusive and integrative conservation science—one that includes the natural and social sciences—will enable more ecologically effective and socially just conservation. Better collaboration among social scientists, natural scientists, practitioners, and policy makers will facilitate a renewed and more robust conservation. Mainstreaming the conservation social sciences will facilitate the uptake of the full range of insights and contributions from these fields into conservation policy and practice.     

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long‐lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts’ judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts’ judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts’ assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers’ assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts’ decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.     

3D-QSAR of fungal quorum-sensing inhibiting analogs of farnesol

Thirty-four analogs with variable antifungal activity were selected to develop models for establishing three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSAR). Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) were conducted on the group of analogs to determine the structural requirements for selectivity and potency in inhibiting biofilm formation and fungal growth. The best CoMFA model predicted a q(2) = 0.5 and an r(2) = 0.991, and revealed that electrostatic properties play a significant role in potency and selectivity. The best CoMSIA model combined electrostatics, hydrogen bond acceptor and donor, and hydrophobic fields with a q(2) = 0.664 r(2) = 0.952, S = 0.099, and F = 139.892. The analyses of the contour maps from both models provide significant insight into the structural necessities for a potent compound. Therefore, manipulating various chemical properties of the substituted groups on the farnesol chain can be used to enhance the fungicidal properties of the target compound.     

Oxyanion flux characterization using passive flux meters: development and field testing of surfactant-modified granular activated carbon

We report here on the extension of Passive Flux Meter (PFM) applications for measuring fluxes of oxyanions in groundwater, and present results for laboratory and field studies. Granular activated carbon, with and without impregnated silver (GAC and SI-GAC, respectively), was modified with a cationic surfactant, hexadecyltrimethylammonium (HDTMA), to enhance the anion exchange capacity (AEC). Langmuir isotherm sorption maxima for oxyanions measured in batch experiments were in the following order: perchlorate>chromate>selenate, consistent with their selectivity. Linear sorption isotherms for several alcohols suggest that surfactant modification of GAC and SI-GAC reduced (approximately 30-45%) sorption of alcohols by GAC. Water and oxyanion fluxes (perchlorate and chromate) measured by deploying PFMs packed with surfactant-modified GAC (SM-GAC) or surfactant-modified, silver-impregnated GAC (SM-SI-GAC) in laboratory flow chambers were in close agreement with the imposed fluxes. The use of SM-SI-GAC as a PFM sorbent was evaluated at a field site with perchlorate contamination of a shallow unconfined aquifer. PFMs packed with SM-SI-GAC were deployed in three existing monitoring wells with a perchlorate concentration range of approximately 2.5 to 190 mg/L. PFM-measured, depth-averaged, groundwater fluxes ranged from 1.8 to 7.6 cm/day, while depth-averaged perchlorate fluxes varied from 0.22 to 1.7 g/m2/day. Groundwater and perchlorate flux distributions measured in two PFM deployments closely matched each other. Depth-averaged Darcy fluxes measured with PFMs were in line with an estimate from a borehole dilution test, but much smaller than those based on hydraulic conductivity and head gradients; this is likely due to flow divergence caused by well-screen clogging. Flux-averaged perchlorate concentrations measured with PFM deployments matched concentrations in groundwater samples taken from one well, but not in two other wells, pointing to the need for additional field testing. Use of the surfactant-modified GACs for measuring fluxes of other anions of environmental interest is discussed.     

Development of molecular marker source profiles for emissions from on-road gasoline and diesel vehicle fleets

As part of the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study, relatively large fleets of gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer to develop chemical source profiles for source attribution of atmospheric particulate matter in California's South Coast Air Basin. Gasoline vehicles were tested in cold-start and warm-start conditions, and diesel vehicles were tested through several driving cycles. Tailpipe emissions of particulate matter were analyzed for organic tracer compounds, including hopanes, steranes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Large intervehicle variation was seen in emission rate and composition, and results were averaged to examine the impacts of vehicle ages, weight classes, and driving cycles on the variation. Average profiles, weighted by mass emission rate, had much lower uncertainty than that associated with intervehicle variation. Mass emission rates and elemental carbon/organic carbon (EC/OC) ratios for gasoline vehicle age classes were influenced most by use of cold-start or warm-start driving cycle (factor of 2-7). Individual smoker vehicles had a large range of mass and EC/OC (factors of 40 and 625, respectively). Gasoline vehicle age averages, data on vehicle ages and miles traveled in the area, and several assumptions about smoker contributions were used to create emissions profiles representative of on-road vehicle fleets in the Los Angeles area in 2001. In the representative gasoline fleet profiles, variation was further reduced, with cold-start or warm-start and the representation of smoker vehicles making a difference of approximately a factor of two in mass emission rate and EC/OC. Diesel vehicle profiles were created on the basis of vehicle age, weight class, and driving cycle. Mass emission rate and EC/OC for diesel averages were influenced by vehicle age (factor of 2-5), weight class (factor of 2-7), and driving cycle (factor of 10-20). Absolute and relative emissions of molecular marker compounds showed levels of variation similar to those of mass and EC/OC.