Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

Recovery of the Kakerori: An Endangered Forest Bird of the Cook Islands

The Kakerori, or Rarotonga Flycatcher (Pomarea dimidiata) , is an endangered monarch flycatcher endemic to the island of Rarotonga, Cook Islands. This bird was reported to be common until the middle of the nineteenth century, but it declined before 1885 and was thought to be extinct early this century. A small population persisted in the rugged interior of Rarotonga; in 1987 the population stood at 38 birds but was in decline. We determined that introduced predators, especially ship rats (Rattus rattus) , were affecting breeding success. Through a program of experimental management, aimed mainly at rodent control, the population increased from a low of 29 birds in Spring 1989 to 60 birds in Spring 1993. The recovery can be attributed to both improved breeding success and increased adult survivorship.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

Community Tolerance Comparison As A New and Sensitive Ecotoxicological Tool

The demonstration of an increased tolerance to a pollutant is direct evidence that this pollutant has presented a selection pressure upon a population or community. Recently, pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) has been applied to the benthic community in a metal-enriched estuary to establish causal linkage between observed changes in community structure and composition and the presence of copper. This paper describes the rationale and methodology behind applying PICT to the marine benthic environment, and shows it to be a sensitive ecotoxicological tool. It also presents a case study, demonstrating how a PICT investigation has aided the interpretation of changes in a benthic community, establishing a causal linkage between these changes in the community and the presence of a specific pollutant.     

近海沉积物DlPCBs对斑马鱼胚胎EROD和cyp1a mRNA的影响

为探究湛江近海域海洋沉积物中类二噁英多氯联苯(dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls,Dl PCBs)的生物学毒性效应,选取湛江近海域2个地点(近工业区TS和近生活区JSW)采集沉积物样品,制备近海域沉积物Dl PCBs提取物,将斑马鱼胚胎暴露于不同浓度的Dl PCBs提取物,测定斑马鱼胚胎7-乙氧基异吩恶唑脱乙基酶(ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase,EROD)活性和cyp1a m RNA相对表达量。结果发现,JSW采样点Dl PCBs提取物染毒组EROD酶活性变化与TS采样点Dl PCBs提取物一致,在各染毒浓度下,斑马鱼仔鱼EROD酶活性为对照组的1.1~1.8倍。TS和JSW采样点不同浓度Dl PCBs提取物暴露斑马鱼胚胎96 h后,使斑马鱼仔鱼cyp1a m RNA相对表达量是对照组的3.36~19.45倍。说明一定浓度的近海沉积物Dl PCBs能诱导斑马鱼仔鱼EROD酶活性和cyp1a m RNA表达量升高,且呈现浓度-效应关系。     

Spatial distribution of defense chemicals and markers and the maintenance of chemical variation

Exploring the spatial distribution of variation in plant secondary metabolites is critical for understanding the evolutionary ecology of biochemical diversity in wild organisms. In the present study, concentrations of foliar sideroxylonal, an important and highly heritable defense chemical of Eucalyptus melliodora, displayed strong, fine-scale spatial autocorrelation. The spatial patterns observed could promote associational effects on herbivore foraging decisions, which may influence the selection pressures exerted on sideroxylonal content. Multiple chemical traits have roles in certain eucalypt-herbivore interactions, and the spatial characteristics of the herbivore foraging environment are therefore determined by these different factors. We used a model of E. melliodora intake by common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), based on the combined effects of two chemical traits, to explore this idea and found that the spatial patterns were different to those of sideroxylonal alone. Spatial genetic autocorrelation, examined using microsatellites, was strong and occurred at a fine scale, implying that restricted gene flow might allow genetic patches to respond to selection relatively independently. Local two-dimensional genetic autocorrelation, explored using a new heuristic method, was highly congruent with the pattern of local phenotypic variation observed for sideroxylonal, suggesting that the genetic variance underlying the sideroxylonal variation is similarly structured. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of genetic and phenotypic variation could influence both the selective pressure imposed by herbivores on eucalypt defenses and the potential of populations to respond to natural selection. Spatial context should be considered in future studies of plant-herbivore interactions.     

Mesoscale trajectory modeling for the Brisbane airshed

The main objective of this research is to identify the possible pollutant transport trajectories from the source to the receptor and to identify the location of areas of high pollution potential for ozone. In order to identify the regions which would most probably be affected by ozone and its precursors, a mesoscale trajectory model is developed and forward air‐parcel trajectories originating from Brisbane city are estimated. Eight trajectories per day, starting at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 hours, are calculated for one complete calendar year. The probability distribution of trajectories shows seasonal and diurnal characteristics and prevailing transport routes of air pollution. Computer‐driven trajectories indicate that air parcels are concentrated in a region between mountainous ranges in the West and islands in the East. This study identifies potential pollutant transport paths and zones of high concentrations that would assist planners in selecting appropriate areas for future industrial and urban development.     

Heathland Seedbanks under BrackenPteridium aquilinum(L.) Kuhn and their Importance for Re-vegetation after Bracken Control

In Great Britain, the regeneration of heathland and moorland plant communities after bracken control is slow and variable. Successful restoration depends on the availability of seed and the provision of suitable regeneration niches, as well as on the expansion of the plants previously present underneath the bracken canopy. This study investigates the availability of the seed resource of heathland species and its distribution, both in relation to increasing time since bracken invasion and with respect to its presence in litter or mineral soil.Calluna vulgariswas found to be the predominant species that germinated from the soil and litter beneath bracken at the sites studied. It appeared in greatest numbers from samples taken outside and at the edge of the bracken patch; numbers decreased deeper into the patch. Land which has been under bracken for a considerable period (>50 years) is likely to have a very reduced seedbank so that some form of propagule introduction, as well as litter disturbance, may be needed to speed up regeneration. On sites which have been invaded by bracken more recently, it is likely that litter incorporation into the soil would conserve the seed resource, whereas burning or litter removal would remove a significant proportion of that seed resource.     

Driver-training and emergency brake performance in cars with antilock braking systems

The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of a two-day post-license driver-training program on brake performance in cars with antilock braking systems (ABS). A trainee group (n = 26) and a control group (n = 13) participated in the experiment. The trainee group were enrolled in a two-day training course that included instruction in a braking technique that may be used in cars with and without ABS. All participants performed emergency brake tests from 80 and 100 km h⁻¹ in an instrumented car before and after the training period. Results indicated the post-training group used a smoother braking profile, were less reliant on ABS activation, had enhanced postural stability, but took about one car length longer to stop from 100 km h⁻¹ compared with the control group. Implications of these results for braking in cars with and without ABS, and for driver education programs in general are discussed.