THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WATER REALLOCATIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Economics is concerned with the allocation of resources between alternative uses. Traditionally, in the western United States, water resources have been committed to agriculture and irrigation. Other competitive uses such as power, industry, and recreation are challenging this allocation. What are the impacts of shifting water out of agriculture into other uses, is a question that needs to be given consideration. Ilia paper attempts to evaluate the tradeoff between using farm land for either irrigated or dryland production and the resulting impacts on gross farm income and the average price of land. Baaed on historical data, reducing irrigated acreage and increasing dryland acreage could greatly reduce both farm income and the equity in farming. The model presented in this paper should be useful for evaluating the tradeoffs between dryland and irrigated land use, especially when there are gat differences in productivity such as those that exist in the inter-mountain region of the Western United States.     

WINTER HEAT BUDGET AND FRAZIL ICE PRODUCTION IN THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Winter heat budget and frazil ice production in the St. Lawrence River between the Ogdensburg-Prescott Boom and the Moses-Saunders Power Dam are analyzed. Contributions of each heat exchange component, and spatial distributions of heat exchange rates are calculated for three typical winters. Based on the calculated heat budget, the amount and distribution of frazil ice generated in the study reach is analyzed. The result of this study indicates that the thermal energy contained in the river water flowing into the study reach is a dominate factor in the heat budget analysis. The heat flux from the channel bottom accounts for an important portion of the total heat budget during the ice covered period.     

A MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODEL OF MUNICIPAL WATER DEMAND1

A multivariate time series model is formulated to study monthly variations in municipal water demand. The left hand side variable in the multivariate regression model is municipal water demand (gallons per connection per day) and the right hand side contains (explanatory) variables which include price (constant dollars), average temperature, total precipitation, and percentage of daylight hours. The application of the regression model to Salt Lake City Water Department data produced a high multiple correlation coefficient and F-statistic. The regression coefficients for the right hand side variables all have the appropriate sign. In an ex post forecast, the model accurately predicts monthly variations in municipal water demand. The proposed monthly multivariate model is not only found useful for forecasting water demand, but also useful for predicting and studying the impact of nonstructural management decisions such as the effect of price changes, peak load pricing methods, and other water conservation programs.     

Modelling Easily Biodegradability of Materials in Liquid Medium-Relationship Between Structure and Biodegradability

In the present project, twenty materials (e.g., polyhydroxybutyrate-hydroxyvalerate, polycaprolactone, cellulose acetate, polyacticacid, polyethylene), representing varied biodegradability levels were studied. An aerobic respirometric test, based on the CEN Draft, was setup. The biodegradability of each plastic film was evaluated by measuring the percentage of carbon converted into CO₂ during 35 days. The values of the CO₂ production were plotted versus days as a cumulative function. In order to reduce its number of points, the cumulative curve was modeled using a sigmoïd function (Hill sigmoïd). This model was compared to one found in the literature. A _i ² test showed that the biodegradation curve was more accurately fitted with the model than the previous one. Three kinetic parameters were determined by this Hill model: one represents the maximal percentage of carbon converted into CO₂, the second the half-life time in days of the degrading part of the material and the third one the curve radius.In addition, the following analyses were carried out on each sample: elemental analysis, thickness, hydrophobicity and surface free energy measurements. In order to compress the information and to keep only relevant pieces, these parameters were submitted to a Principal Component Analysis. PCA found linear combinations of variables that describe major trends in the data. The two principal components which separate groups of materials were closely related to a chemical and a physical axis respectively. Materials showing a high biodegradability were related to high oxygen (and nitrogen) contents and low hydrophobicity: Material thickness did not influence the likeliness to biodegradability described by the maximum biodegradation rate. Finally, this study established the correlation between the biodegradation and the structure of biopolymers.     

Regulatory Oversight of Genetically Engineered Microorganisms: Has Regulation Inhibited Innovation?

/ Using detailed interviews with company representatives and researchers in the field, this paper examines the factors that might account for the slow pace of development of genetically engineered microorganisms (GEMs) intended for environmental release. We specifically analyzed the role of the regulatory system in shaping innovation. We identified at least two cases where industry decided to discontinue the development of a genetically engineered microbial product because of concerns over regulatory oversight. However, most often industry decisions to continue or halt development of GEMs were based on an evaluation of the particular product's efficacy and potential for profitability. Thus the inability of GEMs to perform up to expectations in the field, rather than the regulatory constraints, appears to be the factor responsible for the slow pace of development. KEY WORDS: Genetically engineered microorganisms; Biotechnology; Regulation of biotechnology; Innovation; Environmental release     

TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION AND STREAM CHEMISTRY IN A PRISTINE OLD-GROWTH FOREST WATERSHED,OLYMPIC NATIONAL PARK,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: Human induced long-term changes in precipitation and stream chemistry have been observed in eastern North America and Europe, but few long-term studies have been conducted in coastal western North America. The objectives of this research were to determine: (1) time trends in precipitation and stream chemistry in a pristine old-growth forest watershed, and (2) seasonal patterns in precipitation and stream chemistry. It was conducted in 58 ha West Twin Creek Watershed, Hoh River Valley, Olympic National Park, Washington from 1984 to 1993. Vegetation consists of old-growth forest, with western hemlock, Douglas-fir, western redcedar, Pacific silver fir, and Sitka spruce being the dominant tree species. Annual precipitation varied from 2336 to 4518 mm during the study period with the majority of the rain falling between October and May. Chemistry of precipitation was strongly dominated by oceanic influences with Na and Cl being the dominant ions. The chemistry of the stream was influenced by bedrock weathering and was dominated by Ca, HCO₃, and SO₄ and was not strongly related to precipitation chemistry. The pH of precipitation averaged 5.3 over time and ranged from 4.3 to 7.1, while the stream pH averaged 7.5 and ranged from 5.5 to 9.0. There were few long-term trends in the chemical constituents of bulk precipitation or stream water with the exception of a slight decrease in NO₃ in precipitation and an increase of SO₄ in stream water. A trend of decreasing concentrations of Ca, Mg and Na in precipitation also occurred. There were no significant seasonal patterns in precipitation although the highest SO₄ concentrations usually occurred in late spring and summer perhaps due marine algal activity. Strong seasonal trends occurred in concentrations of HCO₃, SO₄, Ca, Mg, and Na in stream water resulting from weathering and stream flow patterns, with highest ion concentrations occurring just before the onset of the rainy season. Pulses of NO₃ in the stream were observed during fall and early winter resulting from the release of NO₃ which had accumulated in soils or sediments.     

Euro Chlor Risk Assessment for the Marine Environment Osparcom Region: North Sea - 1,1,2-Trichloroethane

This risk assessment on 1,1,2-trichloroethane (T112) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 22 studies for fish, 45 studies for invertebrates and 9 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 300 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.01 µg T112/l water and a worst case PEC of 5 µg T112/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 60 to 30,000 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern is expected for food chain accumulation.     

Migration of Birds as an Indicator of Broad-Scale Environmental Condition

The general profile of the pollution of drinking water, originating from groundwater, by nitrates, chloride and arsenic, in the Prefecture of Thessaloniki, was studied in this project. Samples (tap water) were collected from 52 areas-villages of the Prefecture, during a period of 6 months. The analytical results were related to certain points on the map of the area, thus producing coloured representations of the Prefecture, according to the concentration of the corresponding pollutant. The statistical analysis of the data led to some conclusions concerning the causes of pollution and the relation of the concentrations to certain physico-chemical parameters. Nitrate concentration of samples collected from two specific regions were especially high, sometimes above the highest permitted level. A limited number of samples (13.5%) contained arsenic concentrations above the imminent EC drinking water limit (10 ppb). The majority of the tap water samples, collected from areas along the seashore contained increased concentrations of chloride ions, which is a clear indication of seawater intrusion into the related aquifers.     

Holling's Figure-Eight Model: A Technical Reevaluation in Relation to Climate Change and Biodiversity

Holling proposed a four-phase conceptual model of ecosystem dynamics that includes exploitation, conservation, and destructive and renewal components to explain the failure of many natural resource management schemes. The model is drawn as a sideways figure-eight i.e. . There are two dimensions in this model, connectivity (abscissa) and the amount of capital stored in the system (ordinate). This conceptual model has been suggested as a guide to thinking about the impact of climate change on biodiversity, but the two dimensions are insufficient and the alignment of the figure-eight model is problematic when compared with actual data. Kay has adjusted the dimensions of the figure-eight model and renamed the abscissa as exergy stored and the ordinate as exergy consumed. We realign the original figure-eight model, labeling the abscissa as carbon stored and the ordinate as nutrients, such that the relative values of both axes are in qualitative agreement with data from four different studies. This new alignment is then shown to fit relatively well with Holling's original labels. This revision of the figure-eight model brings Holling's model into agreement with observations and provides insight into the linkages between biodiversity and climate change.