WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.     

Use of genetic,climatic, and microbiological data to inform reintroduction of a regionally extinct butterfly

Species reintroductions are increasingly used as means of mitigating biodiversity loss. Besides habitat quality at the site targeted for reintroduction, the choice of source population can be critical for success. The butterfly Melanargia russiae (Esper´s marbled white) was extirpated from Hungary over 100 years ago, and a reintroduction program has recently been approved. We used museum specimens of this butterfly, mitochondrial DNA data (mtDNA), endosymbiont screening, and climatic‐similarity analyses to determine which extant populations should be used for its reintroduction. The species displayed 2 main mtDNA lineages across its range: 1 restricted to Iberia and southern France (Iberian lineage) and another found throughout the rest of its range (Eurasian lineage). These 2 lineages possessed highly divergent wsp alleles of the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The century‐old Hungarian specimens represented an endemic haplotype belonging to the Eurasian lineage, differing by one mutation from the Balkan and eastern European populations. The Hungarian populations of M. russiae occurred in areas with a colder and drier climate relative to most sites with extant known populations. Our results suggest the populations used for reintroduction to Hungary should belong to the Eurasian lineage, preferably from eastern Ukraine (genetically close and living in areas with the highest climatic similarity). Materials stored in museum collections can provide unique opportunities to document historical genetic diversity and help direct conservation.     

Patterns of houses and habitat loss from 1937 to 1999 in northern Wisconsin, USA.

Rural America is witnessing widespread housing development, which is to the detriment of the environment. It has been suggested to cluster houses so that their disturbance zones overlap and thus cause less habitat loss than is the case for dispersed development. Clustering houses makes intuitive sense, but few empirical studies have quantified the spatial pattern of houses in real landscapes, assessed changes in their patterns over time, and quantified the resulting habitat loss. We addressed three basic questions: (1) What are the spatial patterns of houses and how do they change over time; (2) How much habitat is lost due to houses, and how is this affected by spatial pattern of houses; and (3) What type of habitat is most affected by housing development. We mapped 27 419 houses from aerial photos for five time periods in 17 townships in northern Wisconsin and calculated the terrestrial land area remaining after buffering each house using 100- and 500-m disturbance zones. The number of houses increased by 353% between 1937 and 1999. Ripley's K test showed that houses were significantly clustered at all time periods and at all scales. Due to the clustering, the rate at which habitat was lost (176% and 55% for 100- and 500-m buffers, respectively) was substantially lower than housing growth rates, and most land area was undisturbed (95% and 61% for 100-m and 500-m buffers, respectively). Houses were strongly clustered within 100 m of lakes. Habitat loss was lowest in wetlands but reached up to 60% in deciduous forests. Our results are encouraging in that clustered development is common in northern Wisconsin, and habitat loss is thus limited. However, the concentration of development along lakeshores causes concern, because these may be critical habitats for many species. Conservation goals can only be met if policies promote clustered development and simultaneously steer development away from sensitive ecosystems.     

A Comparison of Corridors and Intrinsic Connectivity to Promote Dispersal in Transient Successional Landscapes

Low-vagility organisms that specialize on transitory successional habitats may be especially dependent upon habitat connectivity to maintain population viability. We analyzed the theoretical intrinsic connectivity of successional landscapes (i.e., the natural juxtaposition of similar habitats that allows dispersal) as a function of patch geometry coupled with the disperser's habitat specificity. Habitat specialists living in poorly connected landscapes (approximating hexagonal patches) have only a 26.5% chance of colonizing a new site when their resident patch becomes unsuitable. In contrast, generalists living in well connected landscapes can virtually always colonize a new site when needed. We infer from our simulation that for some habitat specialists, such as the rare, endemic Florida scrub lizard (Sceloporus woodi), anthropogenic control of successional dynamics for commercial logging may significantly reduce intrinsic connectivity. Lizard population viability may now depend upon the extrinsic connectivity provided by artificial corridors. However, the use of corridors will not serve as a general solution to the problem of anthropogenically reduced intrinsic connectivity until key logistical design problems have been resolved. Moreover, efforts to enhance intrinsic connectivity by modifying patch geometry may produce undesirable edge effects and conflict with old-growth preservation. Future research should focus on developing spatially explicit corridor models, documenting natural levels of intrinsic connectivity, quantifying anthropogenic disruption of natural connectivity, and describing species-specific mechanisms of inter-patch dispersal.     

Brood reduction in the American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrohynchos)

Summary American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) breeding in colonies at East Shoal Lake, Manitoba, Canada exhibited a mean hatching asynchrony of 2.5 days in 2-egg clutches. This resulted in a size difference between chicks which facilitated sibling dominance, harassment and lack of food for the subordinate chick. Only one young survived per nest. In marked broods, the secondhatched chick survived in 20% of successful nests. Manipulated clutch sizes (1, 2 and 3 eggs or chicks per nest) revealed that the presence of a second chick contributes significantly to the reproductive success of the parents. Results support the hypothesis that the second egg functions as a form of insurance against early loss of the first egg or chick. The parents, by establishing hatching asynchrony, by nonintervention in sibling aggression, and by selectively feeding the dominant chick, maximize their chance of rearing the most viable young.     

A model for energetics and bioaccumulation in marine mammals with applications to the right whale.

We present a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for marine mammals, coupled with a pharmacokinetic model of a lipophilic persistent toxicant. Inputs to the model are energy availability and lipid-normalized toxicant concentration in the environment. The model predicts individual growth, reproduction, bioaccumulation, and transfer of energy and toxicant from mothers to their young. We estimated all model parameters for the right whale; with these parameters, reduction in energy availability increases the age at first parturition, increases intervals between reproductive events, reduces the organisms' ability to buffer seasonal fluctuations, and increases its susceptibility to temporal shifts in the seasonal peak of energy availability. Reduction in energy intake increases bioaccumulation and the amount of toxicant transferred from mother to each offspring. With high energy availability, the toxicant load of offspring decreases with birth order. Contrary to expectations, this ordering may be reversed with lower energy availability. Although demonstrated with parameters for the right whale, these relationships between energy intake and energetics and pharmacokinetics of organisms are likely to be much more general. Results specific to right whales include energy assimilation estimates for the North Atlantic and southern right whale, influences of history of energy availability on reproduction, and a relationship between ages at first parturition and calving intervals. Our model provides a platform for further analyses of both individual and population responses of marine mammals to pollution, and to changes in energy availability, including those likely to arise through climate change.     

A seasonal study of arsenic in groundwater,Snohomish County,Washington, USA

A series of arsenic poisonings near Granite Falls in Snohomish County, Washington, were identified during 1985–87. An initial investigation revealed the source of arsenic exposure to be high levels of arsenic in well water. A large number of wells in eastern Snohomish County were tested, residents were interviewed and sources of contamination, both natural and man-made, were investigated. More than 70 private drinking-water wells were found to contain elevated levels of arsenic . One well contained 33 mg As L^–1. The finding of elevated arsenic levels in a previously approved drinking-water well for a restaurant, plus suggestions of symptoms consistent with arsenic poisoning among people with wells with no detectable arsenic, raised concern over possible temporal variation in arsenic levels. To evaluate this temporal variation, a 12-month study of arsenic in groundwater was conducted in selected wells near Granite Falls. The 12-month study of 26 wells, conducted between February 1988 and January 1989, found arsenic levels for individual wells to vary from one to 19 fold over time. Because of this variability, four out of the eight wells with arsenic levels close to the Maximum Contamination Level (MCL) of 0.050 mg As L^–1 would have been considered safe on the basis of a single sample, but would have exceeded the MCL at another time of the year.In areas with a high occurrence of arsenic contaminated drinking water, approval of well water prior to the sale of a house or issuance of a building permit which is based on a single arsenic test may result in later findings of unacceptable drinking water. When the arsenic is near the MCL, it may be prudent to follow well-water arsenic concentrations over time to assure that the arsenic level remains within acceptable bounds. If lower arsenic standards are adopted for drinking water, the issue of temporal variation around the standard will become a matter of more widespread concern.To whom correspondence should be addressed. The contents of this paper do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the US Environmental Protection Agency.     

A preliminary study of the phycological degradation of natural stone masonry

For many years it has been realised that the weathering of stone is not merely determined by physical and chemical factors but also by biological agents. When the stone in question is a historic building or monument, the damage done constitutes an irretrievable loss of our heritage and history. Laboratory studies have commenced in Paisley to study the effect of photoautotrophs on the major sedimentary rock forming minerals, with a view to expanding this work to study the overall effect of these micro-organisms on heritage masonry. Tests were carried out on Albite, Calcite, Dolomite, Orthoclase, Siderite and Quartz, using axenic cultures of the following: Chlorella vulgaris, Chlorococcum tetrasporum, Scenedesmus obliquus, Oocystis marsonii, Stichococcus bacillaris. The rock chips were immersed in either water or bolds basal media and exposed to a mix of the micro-organisms listed above and then tested weekly for their pH, fortnightly for the waters chemical composition using inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) and visually utilising the universitys SEM facilities. Work so far has revealed biologically mediated etching of minerals, a well-defined pH profile over a period of 90 days, as well as a variety of elemental release patterns for the different minerals.