A procedure to estimate worst-case air quality in complex terrain

Using a straightforward synoptic climatological analysis scheme, it is shown that the potential for an area to experience air quality degradation due to local sources is highest under polar subtropical highs. With respect to polar highs, the problem is most severe when the sun angle is low and snow covers the ground, and the polar high persists for a long period of time. A simple algorithm is introduced which is designed to estimate worst-case impact in a trapping valley. The potential for the accumulation of air pollution in such valleys due to the persistence of a polar high in a region, is ignored in current regulatory air quality assessments. Trapping valleys and synoptic flow stagnation often occur in wilderness areas. Refined air quality assessments are shown to be possible using a mesoscale meteorological model and a pollution dispersion model. These tools permit quantitative assessments of pollution build-up from local sources as a result of the recirculation of the local air. This tool, along with the synoptic climatological classification scheme, also permits an evaluation of the fractional contribution of long range versus local sources in the air quality degradation in a region. Areas near the center of a polar or subtropical surface high pressure system, for instance, appear to be dominated by local sources, if they exist, whereas in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones, long-range transport is usually much more important.     

Emergency room evidence on the role of alcohol intoxication in injury at work in the U.S.

Alcohol is a known risk factor for many kinds of injuries, but past research has failed to implicate alcohol intoxication as a major cause of work injuries in the U.S. Local and regional studies have indicated that alcohol-related injuries are relatively less common in work settings than non-work settings. In a six-month study, the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System collected the first national sample data on alcohol and injuries presenting to hospital emergency rooms. The study included both work injuries and product-related non-work injuries. Alcohol intoxication was ascertained by emergency room chart review. Alcohol involvement was much lower than in other studies, probably because of poor sensitivity in ascertainment, and it was 10 times lower among work injuries than non-work injuries. “Non-work activities at the time of injury” were a significant risk factor for alcohol-related injuries (odds ratio = 7). Thus, results of this national study are consistent with previous research in finding that alcohol poses a greater risk for nonwork injury than for work injury.     

The Sustainable Use of Sensitive Countryside Sites for Sport and Active Recreation

Sport and active recreation, as an important area of leisure activity that can take place in the countryside, has recently been the subject of much discussion both in central government reports and statutory agencies' studies. This paper examines principles for their planning and management, particularly in sensitive areas such as National Parks, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and Sites of Special Scientific Interest. It takes the view that effective recreation management should be promoted, suggesting that the designation of countryside areas should not imply that they are unchanging, or that environmental policies should be applied uniformly. The Government's UK Sustainable Development Strategy 1994 emphasizes the importance of assessing capacity and of management and monitoring in providing for leisure. Yet knowledge of recreation impacts is incomplete. A number of principles for the management of countryside recreation are given, and examples given of such principles in use. These stress the need for effective participation by the various interests involved at sites and the importance of voluntary approaches to the resolution of conflicts.     

Embryonic and parental preferences for incubation temperature in herring gulls: implications for parent-offspring conflict

According to Trivers (1974), parent-offspring (P-O) conflict arises because offspring are selected to solicit more care than parents are selected to provide. However, should benefits fail to increase with increasing care, the offspring optimum can be reduced to the point where predicted P-O conflict vanishes. We examined offspring demand and parental care in such a benefit-limited system in herring gulls (Larus argentatus). In this species, parents typically neglect their lasthatched (C-) egg during the final hours of hatching (pipped-egg stage), allowing mean temperature to drop by about 4°C, to near 33°C. Other studies indicate that no increased offspring benefit arises from increasing pipped egg incubation temperature above that level, but embryo damage occurs if temperature drops lower. In such a system, P-O conflict over preferred incubation temperature is predicted to be minimal or absent. We assessed phenotypic manifestations of conflict by determining incubation temperature preferences of parent and offspring independently. Temperature provided solely by parental initiative was 33.9°C (artificial eggs, corrected for embryonic heat production). Preferred incubation temperature of pipped embryos was measured by exposing them to moderate chilling (20°C) punctuated by 4-min periods of rewarming when they called. Temperature of vocally thermoregulating embryos stabilized around a mean of 32.9–33.4°C, about 0.5–1.0°C below parental preference. Acting independently, parents and embryos each maintained egg temperature at or near minimum developmentally safe levels. Results provided no evidence for phenotypic conflict, as predicted by a benefit-limited version of Trivers' P-O conflict model. Benefit limitation may also be relevant to P-O conflict in other contexts such as feeding of newly-hatched young.     

Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.     

From eco-management and audit (EMAS) to sustainability management and audit (SMAS)

The local authority version of the Eco-Management and Audit Scheme (LA-EMAS) can already be used as a tool for managing towards sustainability. But it can also be used in a much less ambitious 'procedural' way. This article suggests how LA-EMAS could be developed more fully into a sustainability management tool embracing social issues, a concern over environmental carrying capacities, and stakeholder involvement. This raises questions which should be considered in the run-up to the review of the EMAS regulation in 1998.     

An appraisal of emissions control requirements in the California South Coast Air Basin

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of reductions of reactive organic gases (ROG) and NO_x emissions on short-term O₃ and NO₂ concentrations and annual average NO₂ concentrations in the California South Coast Air Basin. Short-term air quality predictions were obtained by applying the Systems Applications Airshed Model to summer O₃ and autumn NO₂ episodes. Effects of emission controls on annual NO₂ concentrations were estimated using CDM and a new parcel tracking model NOXTRAK. Results for the summer O₃ episode indicate that ROG emission reduction in an effective means for reducing peak O₃ concentrations. NO_x emission reduction imposed in addition to ROG emission reductions are counterproductive in reducing peak O₃ concentrations. The modeling results also suggest that attainment of the 1-h federal O₃ standard requires ROG emission reductions on the order of 80% from 1987 levels. Results for the autumn NO₂ episode indicate that NO_x emission reductions approximating those recommended in a proposed Air Quality Management Plan (about 22%) will result in only small (about 5%) reductions in the peak NO₂ concentrations. ROG emission reduction may be more effective than NO_x emission reduction in reducing the peak NO₂ concentration. For the episode studied, a reduction of 36% in ROG emissions is estimated to result in a reduction in peak NO₂ concentrations commensurate with that required to attain the 1-h state NO₂ standard. Model calculations also indicate that the federal NO₂ standard may not be meet by 1987 at one or two stations, but may blosely approached.     

Ambient concentrations and correlations of hydrocarbons and halocarbons in the vicinity of an airport

Concentrations of sixteen volatile hydrocarbons present in internal combustion engine exhaust gases and two halogenated hydrocarbons have been measured in ambient air samples at six sites around Gatwick Airport. Correlations between their concentrations have been drawn in an attempt to establish the exact nature of the sources of these emissions, together with consideration of the overall hydrocarbon profiles.     

WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS AND PROJECTION CORRESPONDING WITH REGIONAL GROWTH,SEATTLE REGION1

ABSTRACT: The paper outlines both the methods used and the results obtained in a study of the demand for municipal and industrial water for the Seattle region. The study was made as part of a regional water management study program, one objective of which is to “… identify, quantify, and set priorities for all current and future water uses …”. A basic concept in the study of municipal and industrial water use is that the demand for water is derived from the demand for output and the direct services that water provides. Principal characteristics of the study are: (1) Water use is studied by type - residential, commercial, industrial and public -with identification of factors affecting each; (2) Water demands are studied by season as well as on an annual basis; (3) Projections of future water use are tied directly to projections of economic change in the service area; and (4) The effects of alternative policies on water use are estimated. Water use levels are projected under alternative regional growth assumptions provided by the Puget Sound Governmental Conference, a regional planning agency. Thus, the water use planning is consistent with other regional planning programs in this respect. The results can be varied according to changes in specific factors affecting water use. The factors considered in the present study include: single-family residential lot size, distribution of population between single- and multi-family units, per capita water use by multi-family unit residents, and industrial and commercial water use per employee. An income elasticity of demand was estimated for single-family residential water use.