The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.     

Genetic study of the extent and consequences of sexual and asexual reproduction in the deep-sea epizoic anemones Amphianthus inornata and Kadosactis commensalis (Cnidaria: Anthozoa)

The anemone Amphianthus inornata is found at bathyal depths living on colonies of the gorgonian Acanella arbuscula. Previous studies of the morphology and reproductive stage of this anemone, during different times of the year, have indicated that it reproduces sexually on a seasonal basis. A small proportion of the study population were also reported to be undergoing asexual reproduction by fission. The anemone Kadosactis commensalis is also bathyal, but lives mainly on the holothurian Paroriza prouhoi. Previous morphological studies have indicated that K. commensalis is a protandrous hermaphrodite that exhibits non-seasonal sexual reproduction only. In the present study, allozyme electrophoresis was used to examine the prevalence and genetic consequences of asexual reproduction in a population of Amphianthus inornata from 2 200 m in the Rockall Trough, North Atlantic Ocean. Genetic evidence, from five randomly selected polymorphic enzyme loci, for asexual reproduction in this species was weak. Exact tests indicated that genotype frequencies did not differ significantly from those expected under Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. F _IS (correlation of homologous alleles with reference to local population, assuming random mating) values also did not differ significantly from zero, and observed heterozygosity (H _o =0.446) and genotypic diversity (G _o =17.0387) were very similar to Hardy–Weinberg expected frequencies (H _e =0.446; G ^* _e =17.0010). Evidence suggests that the contribution of asexual reproduction to recruitment in the study population of A. inornata is low. For a single population of K. commensalis from 4 850 m on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain, North Atlantic Ocean, the hypothesis that inbreeding due to reduced occurrence of outcrossing between anemones on a single holothurian host was examined by electrophoresis of ten randomly selected enzyme loci. Single-locus genotypic frequencies were significantly different from expected frequencies for one locus P≤ 0.05, hexokinase-1 (Hex-1)]. F _IS values were significantly different from zero for two enzyme loci (Hex-1 and Hex-2, P≤ 0.01 and P≤ 0.05, respectively), and the overall observed heterozygosity was lower than the expected heterozygosity (H _o =0.125, H _e =0.140). The hypothesis of inbreeding could not be rejected by the present study, although sample size was small (N=55), leading to possible bias in tests of significance. Genetic variation in A. inornata was higher than that recorded for most eukaryotes, although interlocus sampling error for only five loci is high. High genetic variability has been found in other sea anemones, and has been related to high longevity and mixed reproductive modes. Genetic variation in K. commensalis was in the higher range of that found in other eukaryotes, and is not unusual for anemones. Received: 5 August 1996 / Accepted: 11 December 1996     

Extent and nature of extracellular organic production by the marine coccolithophorid Hymenomonas carterae

Production of extracellular dissolved organic substances by cultures of the marine coccolithophorid Hymenomonas carterae SMBA 254 was investigated by the ¹⁴C-tracer technique. In 4 h incubations, extracellular ¹⁴C production represented 20 to 64% of ¹⁴C incorporation into cell material for cultures nearing, or during stationary growth; for rapidly growing cultures with relatively low cell densities the ¹⁴C-production was only 4 to 10% of incorporation. Intra-and extra-cellular material was fractionated by ion-exchange membrane electrodialysis. Ionic compounds accounted for 40 to 60% of extracellular material; in contrast only 16 to 27% of intracelular metabolites were in this category. Of a range of methods which were investigated, separation of compounds by gel-filtration in conjunction with two-dimensional thin-layer chromatography proved most effective. Up to 80% of extracellular material was of less than 1 800 mol. wt and included carbohydrates and amino acids, with glutamic acid predominating. The intracellular material was more heterogeneous, with a substantially greater proportion of high molecular weight material. The quite distinct compositions show clearly that extracellular production observed in these experiments arose through excretion and was not attributable to cell lysis.     

Structural marsh management effects on coastal fishes and crustaceans

Structural marsh management, using levees and water-control structures, is used in the coastal zone for many objectives, for example, to reduce marsh loss, to enhance waterfowl habitat, to revegetate open-water areas, and to reduce saltwater intrusion. The literature was evaluated to categorize structural marsh management and to determine some of its effects on fishes and crustaceans. Structural marsh management had positive effects on standing stock of most resident organisms and negative effects on marine-transient organisms. Emigration was negatively affected for both resident and marine-transient organisms. Techniques such as opening structures at critical migration times, designing structures that offer the greatest management flexibility, and using structures to create a flow-through system could reduce these impacts. More effort should be put into monitoring managed areas to determine if the objectives are being met and to evaluate the effects on fishes and crustaceans. Although frequent manipulation could reduce these impacts, the costs and problems incurred may outweigh the anticipated benefits.     

PARAMETER DETERMINATION FOR THE MUSKINGUM-CUNGE FLOOD ROUTING METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The proportionality coefficient, K, and the weighing parameter, X, required for the Muskingum-Cunge Flood Routing Method are dependent on the hydraulic characteristics of the channel and the dynamic characteristic of the flood wave. This work focuses on the determination of the Muskingum-Cunge Flood Routing Method parameters for streams where measured hydrographs are not available (i.e., ungaged streams) with floods that stay within the channel banks. In the present work, a gaged creek was used and a dynamic wave was routed to test the reliability of the parameters determined through the Schaefer and Stevens technique (Schaefer and Stevens, 1978). The predicted outflow hydrographs are compared to the hydrographs obtained for the same stream determined with the Muskingum Routing option of the HEC-1 program. Cypress Creek in Harris County, Texas, was the model for this work; and the corresponding data were extracted from the Grant Road and Westfield, Texas, USGS gaging stations.     

EMERGY-based environmental systems assessment of a multi-purpose temperate mixed-forest watershed of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

Emergy (with an 'm') synthesis was used to assess the balance between nature and humanity and the equity among forest outcomes of a US Forest Service ecosystem management demonstration project on the Wine Spring Creek watershed, a high-elevation (1600 m), temperate forest located in the southern Appalachian mountains of North Carolina, USA. EM embraces a holistic perspective, accounting for the multiple temporal and spatial scales of forest processes and public interactions, to balance the ecological, economic, and social demands placed on land resources. Emergy synthesis is a modeling tool that allows the structure and function of forest ecosystems to be quantified in common units (solar emergy-joules, sej) for easy and meaningful comparison, determining 'system-value' for forcing factors, components, and processes based on the amount of resources required to develop and sustain them, whether they are money, material, energy, or information. The Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR), the units of solar emergy imported into the watershed via human control per unit of indigenous, natural solar emergy, was determined to be 0.42, indicating that the load on the natural environment was not ecologically damaging and that excess ecological capacity existed for increasing non-ecological activities (e.g. timbering, recreation) to achieve an ELR of 1.0 (perfect ecological-economic balance). Three forest outcomes selected to represent the three categories of desired sustainability (ecological, economic, and social) were evaluated in terms of their solar emergy flow to measure outcome equity. Direct economic contribution was an order of magnitude less (224 x 10(12)solar emergy-joules (sej) ha(-1)) than the ecological and social contributions, which were provided at annual rates of 3083 and 2102 x 10(12)sejha(-1), respectively. Emergy synthesis was demonstrated to holistically integrate and quantify the interconnections of a coupled nature-human system allowing the goals of ecological balance and outcome equity to be measured quantitatively.     

Development of a method for predicting the ignition of explosive atmospheres by mechanical friction and impacts (MECHEX)

Mechanical friction and impacts is still today a main cause of ignition of explosive atmospheres (ATEX) in the industry and this trend seems to be stable in time. This situation certainly results from a significant gap of knowledge in the underlying mechanisms so that the parameters to play on are not precisely identified. In this programme of European dimensions, the process of degradation of the mechanical energy into heat during friction and impacts have been studied.

An extensive experimental programme is presented to this end. The mechanisms of dissipation of the mechanical energy into heat during friction has been studied with rubbing machines in which a slider equipped with temperature sensors rubs against a rotating wheel. For impacts, a new device has been developed using a special “air driven cannon” to propel a projectile accurately up to 50 m/s onto an inclined target. A very significant effort has been reserved to the investigation of the ignition mechanisms, not only for ATEX but also for dust accumulations.

Some “simple” modelling is proposed on purpose of practical applications. For frictional situations, a critical rubbing power is calculated without any limitations about any lower boundary concerning the rubbing velocity. For “impacts”, the relevant parameter for ignition is not the kinetic energy of the projectile but its velocity and the nature of the materials.     

Climate change, aerobiology, and public health in the Northeast United States

The epidemiological implications with respect to climate change and public health (e.g., shifts in disease vectors) are beginning to be acknowledged. Less recognized however, are the potential links between climate, plant biology and public health. In addition to being affected by climate (e.g., temperature determines plant range), carbon dioxide (CO₂) represents the raw material needed for photosynthesis and its rapid increase in the atmosphere is expected to stimulate plant growth. While there are a number of means by which plant biology intersects with human health (e.g., plant nutrition), one of the most widely recognized is aerobiology; specifically, the ability of plants to both produce pollen and to serve as a substrate for molds/fungi (e.g., sporulation). The current review represents an initial attempt to coalesce what is known regarding the likely impacts of climate/CO₂ on plant pollen/fungal spores and associated allergic disease that are, or could be, specific to the Northeast United States. Although the current results indicate a number of potentially unfavorable effects, we wish to stress that the current data are based on a small number of experiments. Additional data are crucial to both reduce epidemiological uncertainty and to derive a robust set of mitigation / adaptation strategies.