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151.
Development of a land-use forecast tool for future water resources assessment: case study for the Mekong River 3S Sub-basins 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Masatsugu Takamatsu Akiyuki Kawasaki Peter P. Rogers Julia L. Malakie 《Sustainability Science》2014,9(2):157-172
Land-use change is one of the major factors that alter local and regional hydrology. For areas experiencing fast expansion of urban and agriculture areas, land-use changes often adversely affect stream flow and water resources at the local and watershed scale. The Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Sub-basins are a part of the Lower Mekong River Basin and include land in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos), and Viet Nam. The region is experiencing a dynamic land-use transition because of rapid changes in its economy, society, and environment. Major land-use changes include deforestation of native rain forest, expansion of agricultural and urban areas, and expansion of commercial plantation such as rubber trees. These land-use alterations have affected local and regional hydrologic processes, resulting in stream flow shortages during the dry season and flash flooding due to deforestation. In this research, deforestation in the 3S Sub-basins over the period 1993–1997 was analyzed using multi-logistic regression. The regression analysis indicated that density of agricultural cells within a 5-km radius from each forest cell and slope strongly affected the deforestation process. A land-use forecast model to simulate deforestation and urbanization sites was developed in GIS based on local land-use change trends. The model was applied to 2003 land use to forecast 2033 land use and future water demand, which was further compared with present stream flow measurements during the dry season at various places in the region. The entire approach from the land-use forecast to its impact assessment on stream flow could help local stakeholders understand watershed-wide future water resources risks and develop future water resources plans. With the 3S Sub-basins being used as a case study area, this article presents a land-use forecast tool; simulated 2033 land-use and water demand; and the estimation of the impact of the forecasted future water demand on the local stream flow. 相似文献
152.
J. M. Davis H. H. Rogers 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2013,63(8):905-908
ABSTRACT This study reports the first field measurements of airborne exavalent chromium (Cr(vi)) in southwestern Ontario. Hexavalent chromium was identified as an inhalation carcinogen and an air toxic of concern during the 1991-93 Windsor Air Quality Study. The results of that study indicated that approximately 20% of the routinely monitored ambient airborne chromium (Cr) was in the hexavalent form. In addition, the range of carcinogenic health risks attributable to airborne Cr(vi) was determined to be between 1.4 x IO6 and 3.0 x 10-4 for people living in the Windsor area. During the summer of 1993, analyses of concurrent indoor and outdoor 24-hour air quality samples taken at 33 residences in Hamilton resulted in geometric mean Cr(vi) concentrations of 0.20 r|g/m3 and 0.55 r|g/m3, respectively, and little or no relationship between the indoor and outdoor sample sets. During the summer of 1994, an airborne Cr(vi) size-fractionation study was conducted in Hamilton, the results of which suggested that the majority of the Cr(vi) was in the inhalable fraction. 相似文献
153.
Arian D. Wallach Daniel Ramp Ana Benítez-López Eamonn I. F. Wooster Scott Carroll Alexandra J. R. Carthey Erin I. E. Rogers Owen Middleton Kyle J. A. Zawada Jens-Christian Svenning Ella Avidor Erick Lundgren 《Conservation biology》2023,37(2):e14012
The prey naivety hypothesis posits that prey are vulnerable to introduced predators because many generations in slow gradual coevolution are needed for appropriate avoidance responses to develop. It predicts that prey will be more responsive to native than introduced predators and less responsive to introduced predators that differ substantially from native predators and from those newly established. To test these predictions, we conducted a global meta-analysis of studies that measured the wariness responses of small mammals to the scent of sympatric mammalian mesopredators. We identified 26 studies that met our selection criteria. These studies comprised 134 experiments reporting on the responses of 36 small mammal species to the scent of six introduced mesopredators and 12 native mesopredators. For each introduced mesopredator, we measured their phylogenetic and functional distance to local native mesopredators and the number of years sympatric with their prey. We used predator and prey body mass as a measure of predation risk. Globally, small mammals were similarly wary of the scent of native and introduced mesopredators; phylogenetic and functional distance between introduced mesopredators and closest native mesopredators had no effect on wariness; and wariness was unrelated to the number of prey generations, or years, since first contact with introduced mesopredators. Small mammal wariness was associated with predator-prey body mass ratio, regardless of the nativity. The one thing animals do not seem to recognize is whether their predators are native. 相似文献
154.
This paper presents a practical risk assessment methodology to provide drinking water infrastructure (DWI) decision-makers with an objective risk assessment tool. The purpose of this risk assessment tool is to maintain the desired level-of-service or systems reliability [r(f)], while managing the financial uncertainty of the expected budgetary impact within the capital improvement program (CIP). The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the value of an objective risk assessment tool for estimating the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to the risk of systems failure (R). The objectives are to: (1) incorporate probability of systems failure [p(f)] into the CIP budgetary analysis process and (2) evaluate the affects of p(f) on the expected CIP budgetary outcome. The magnitude of the expected budgetary impact is managed through the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to R, which is represented by the level of the rate of reinvestment (RR). The expected result of the proposed risk assessment tool demonstrates that by proactively managing R to maintain a desired r(f) will effectively manage the impact of uncertainty on the expected budgetary outcome within the CIP. The expected contribution of the practical risk assessment methodology is to provide DWI decision-makers with the ability to reduce budgetary uncertainty when allocating limited financial resources among competing operational, repair, maintenance, and expansion activities within the CIP. The conclusions of the paper reveal that if DWI decision-makers assume risk-avoidance positions through proactive asset management (AM) strategies, they will achieve positive affects on expected budgetary outcomes. 相似文献
155.
In harm’s way: Non-migration decisions of people at risk of slow-onset coastal hazards in Bangladesh
Non-migration is an adaptive strategy that has received little attention in environmental migration studies. We explore the leveraging factors of non-migration decisions of communities at risk in coastal Bangladesh, where exposure to both rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters is high. We apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to empirical data and assess how threat perception and coping appraisal influences migration decisions in farming communities suffering from salinization of cropland. This study consists of data collected through quantitative household surveys (n = 200) and semi-structured interviews from four villages in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Results indicate that most respondents are unwilling to migrate, despite better economic conditions and reduced environmental risk in other locations. Land ownership, social connectedness, and household economic strength are the strongest predictors of non-migration decisions. This study is the first to use the PMT to understand migration-related behaviour and the findings are relevant for policy planning in vulnerable regions where exposure to climate-related risks is high but populations are choosing to remain in place.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01552-8. 相似文献
156.
Xiaole Yang William J. Rogers M. Sam Mannan 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(1):149-156
At all levels, the understanding of uncertainty associated with risk of major chemical industrial hazards should be enhanced. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed for a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process and then probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied for this QRA. A fault tree was developed to analyze the probability distribution of flammable liquid released from the overfilling of a knockout drum. Bayesian theory was used to update failure rates of the equipment so that generic information from databases and plant equipment real life data are combined to gain all available knowledge on component reliability. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution of top event probability was obtained to characterize the uncertainty of the result. It was found that the uncertainty of basic event probabilities has a significant impact on the top event probability distribution. The top event probability prediction uncertainty profile showed that the risk estimation is improved by reducing uncertainty through Bayesian updating on the basic event probability distributions. The whole distribution of top event probability replaces point value in a risk matrix to guide decisions employing all of the available information rather than only point mean values as in the conventional approach. The resulting uncertainty guides where more information or uncertainty reduction is needed to avoid overlap with intolerable risk levels. 相似文献
157.
Prior SA Torbert HA Runion GB Rogers HH Ort DR Nelson RL 《Journal of environmental quality》2006,35(4):1470-1477
Elevated atmospheric CO2 can result in larger plants returning greater amounts of residue to the soil. However, the effects of elevated CO2 on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling for different soybean varieties have not been examined. Aboveground residue of eight soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] varieties was collected from a field study where crops had been grown under two different atmospheric CO2 levels [370 micromol mol(-1) (ambient) and 550 micromol mol(-1) (free-air carbon dioxide enrichment, FACE)]. Senesced residue material was used in a 60-d laboratory incubation study to evaluate potential C and N mineralization. In addition to assessing the overall effects of CO2 level and variety, a few specific variety comparisons were also made. Across varieties, overall residue N concentration was increased by FACE, but residue C concentration was only slightly increased. Overall residue C to N ratio was lower under FACE and total mineralized N was increased by FACE, suggesting that increased N2 fixation impacted residue decomposition; total mineralized C was also slightly increased by FACE. Across CO2 levels, varietal differences were also observed with the oldest variety having the lowest residue N concentration and highest residue C to N ratio; mineralized N was lowest in the oldest variety, illustrating the influence of high residue C to N ratio. It appears (based on our few specific varietal comparisons) that the breeding selection process may have resulted in some varietal differences in residue quality which can result in increased N or C mineralization under elevated CO2 conditions. This limited number of varietal comparisons indicated that more work investigating varietal influences on soil C and N cycling under elevated CO2 conditions is required. 相似文献
158.
Formal waste management services are not accessible for the majority of primary healthcare clinics on the African continent, and affordable and practicable technology solutions are required in the developing country context. In response, a protocol was established for the first quantitative and qualitative evaluation of relatively low cost small-scale incinerators for use at rural primary healthcare clinics. The protocol comprised the first phase of four, which defined the comprehensive trials of three incineration units. The trials showed that all of the units could be used to render medical waste non-infectious, and to destroy syringes or render needles unsuitable for reuse. Emission loads from the incinerators are higher than large-scale commercial incinerators, but a panel of experts considered the incinerators to be more acceptable compared to the other waste treatment and disposal options available in under-serviced rural areas. However, the incinerators must be used within a safe waste management programme that provides the necessary resources in the form of collection containers, maintenance support, acceptable energy sources, and understandable operational instructions for the incinerators, whilst minimising the exposure risks to emissions through the correct placement of the units in relation to the clinic and the surrounding communities. On-going training and awareness building are essential in order to ensure that the incinerators are correctly used as a sustainable waste treatment option. 相似文献
159.
The sorption of carbon tetrachloride, ethylene dibromide, and trichloroethylene in two silty clay loam soils and aluminium (Al3+) or calcium (Ca2+) saturated montmorillonite clay was studied. When the adsorbents were exposed to environmental levels of these chemicals (10 to 1000 ppb in water) the amounts of each of the chemicals sorbed were 6% or less of that available except for a 17% sorption of trichloroethylene by Al-saturated clay. In the case of the Ca-saturated clay, there was no apparent sorption of carbon tetrachloride or trichloroethylene. When soil sorption was normalized based on the soil organic carbon content (K
oc) a correlation was found between the K
oc, water solubility, and octanol/water partitioning coefficients of the chemicals. However, carbon tetrachloride did not behave according to with the predicted relationships. 相似文献
160.
Kent S. Murray Daniel T. Rogers Martin M. Kaufman 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(3):777-792
ABSTRACT: The occurrence of dissolved heavy metal concentrations in shallow ground water were measured at 126 sites within an urban watershed in southeastern Michigan. A total of 1,140 samples were collected from the first saturated zone, and the mean concentrations of 11 heavy metals (arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, silver, and zinc) were obtained and compared to their corresponding mean concentrations within surface soil. The results suggest that former and current land use processes have resulted in significant adverse impacts on the study region. Levels of Cr 20 to 30 times the maximum contaminant level (MCL) have been detected in the ground water beneath industrial sites. In addition, Cd and Pb have been found at levels exceeding their MCLs where surface soils are clay‐rich, and in sandy soils at more than 10 times their MCLs. The high levels of Cr in ground water strongly suggest that the chromium is in a hexavalent form, and this likelihood is supported by current studies. Given the hydraulic connection between the watershed's surface waters and the Great Lakes, these findings raise significant ecological and public health concerns. 相似文献