不确定性及建议

在北极气候影响评估(ACIA)中,一项气候及紫外线B辐射变化对北极陆地生态系统影响的评估着重强调了预期中的变暖的深远意义,尤其是变暖在未来生态系统功能、生物多样性,以及对气候的反馈方面的深远意义.然而,尽管在有些地理区域和有些学科,我们目前对气候和紫外线B辐射驱动下生态过程及生态变化的了解已算充分,但在其他区域及学科,这种了解是微弱的.即使随着北极地区研究成果的积累和新技术的引用,近来我们的预测能力已空前提高,我们目前的了解程度也还受到各种各样的不确定性的限制.这项评估是在每一种都含有不确定性的一系列方式方法,以及常常远非完整的数据集的基础上完成的.不确定性从各种方法和概念框架而来,从不可预测的意外事件、从对模型的缺乏验证、从未来温室气体排放及气候变化的一些特别情景的应用而不是预测而来.此项评估中,以减少不确定性为目的的建议比比皆是,而且涉及所有学科.然而,一再出现的主题是在北极这样人烟稀少的偏远地区,环境变化及其影响的实验、观察及监测活动达到足够的空间广度和时间长度是极其重要的.     

在物种水平上生物对气候和紫外线B辐射预期变化的响应

控制实验表明,不同物种对每个环境因子变化变量产生的响应也存在着差异.植物往往对营养元素的变化反应最为强烈,尤其是氮素的增加.夏季增温实验表明,木本植物对温度的升高表现出了积极的响应,而地衣、苔藓类植物的丰富度却因增温而降低.物种对增温的响应主要受水分有效性和雪覆盖程度控制.在气候保持湿润的情况下,伴随着夏季温度的升高,许多无脊椎动物种群的数量都有所增加.实验表明,CO2浓度和紫外线B(UV-B)辐射的增加对植物和动物影响较小,但是,一些微生物和真菌却对紫外线B辐射的增加非常敏感,甚至可能会因此产生一些诱导突变而引起流行传染病的爆发.苔原土壤的加温、CO2浓度的升高以及矿物质营养的改善一般都会增加微生物的活动.在温带气候中,藻类往往比蓝藻细菌更占优势.冬季结冰-解冻过程的增加会导致冻壳的形成,从而会大大降低许多陆生动物的冬季存活率,改变这些动物群体的动态过程.厚的积雪会使驯鹿等植食性动物很难采食到雪下的草类植物,同时也不利于其逃避食肉动物的追捕.而无雪期的提前到来则可能会加速植物的生长.物种对气候变化的响应最初可能出现在亚种这一水平上一个具有很高遗传/群系多样性的北极植物或动物物种,演化历史已经使其具有一种适应不同环境条件的能力,这将使它们能够很快适应未来的环境变化.本土知识(IK)、航空照片和卫星图像表明一些物种的分布已经发生了变化北极植被更加趋向灌木化,而且生长也更加旺盛；北极驯鹿的分布范围最近也发生了变化；一些原来在树线以南区域活动的害虫和鸟类也在北极被发现.与此相对应,大多数在北极地区进行繁殖鸟类的数量却都在下降.根据一些模型的预测,随着气候的变暖,苔原带鸟类的数量将会大幅度地下降.据物种-气候响应模型预测,由于受到气候变暖的影响,北极地区现有物种在未来的潜在分布范围都将大大缩小和向北退缩,而一些无脊椎动物和微生物则很可能会迅速向北扩展到北极地区.     

Potential site productivity influences the rate of forest structural development

Development and maintenance of structurally complex forests in landscapes formerly managed for timber production is an increasingly common management objective. It has been postulated that the rate of forest structural development increases with site productivity. We tested this hypothesis for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) forests using a network of permanent study plots established following complete timber harvest of the original old-growth forests. Forest structural development was assessed by comparing empirical measures of live tree structure to published values for Douglas-fir forests spanning a range of ages and structural conditions. The rate of forest structural development--resilience--exhibited a positive relationship with site index, a measure of potential site productivity. Density of shade-intolerant conifers declined in all study stands from an initial range of 336-4068 trees/ha to a range of 168-642 trees/ha at the most recent measurement. Angiosperm tree species declined from an initial range of 40-371 trees/ha to zero in seven of the nine plots in which they were present. Trends in shade-tolerant tree density were complex: density ranged from 0 to 575 trees/ha at the first measurement and was still highly variable (25-389 trees/ha) at the most recent measurement. Multivariate analysis identified the abundance of hardwood tree species as the strongest compositional trend apparent over the study period. However, structural variables showed a strong positive association with increasing shade-tolerant basal area and little or no association with abundance of hardwood species. Thus, while tree species succession and forest structural development occur contemporaneously, they are not equivalent processes, and their respective rates are not necessarily linearly related. The results of this study support the idea that silvicultural treatments to accelerate forest structural development should be concentrated on lower productivity sites when the management objective is reserve-wide coverage of structurally complex forests. Alternatively, high-productivity sites should be prioritized for restoration treatments when the management objective is to develop structurally complex forests on a portion of the landscape.     

Terrestrial metapopulation dynamics: a nonlinear bioeconomic model analysis

This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic analysis of species conservation in agricultural areas. Wild species in fragmented agricultural landscapes are best approached as metapopulations consisting of a finite number of local populations. Economic analysis of species conservation in fragmented habitat needs to deal with metapopulation theory and its theoretical implications. This paper presents a spatially explicit bioeconomic model consisting of a straightforward economic land use model and an applied metapopulation model. This paper demonstrates that multiple equilibria and multiple local optima in metapopulations might lead to nonconvexities in the production possibilities set of agricultural profits and species conservation.     

Environmental Indicators to Assess the Risk of Diffuse Nitrogen Losses from Agriculture

Diffuse Nitrogen (N) loss from agriculture is a major factor contributing to increased concentrations of nitrate in surface and groundwater, and of N₂O and NH₃ in the atmosphere. Different approaches to assess diffuse N losses from agriculture have been proposed, among other direct measurements of N loads in leachate and groundwater, and physically-based modelling. However, both these approaches have serious drawbacks and are awkward to use at a routine base. N loss indicators (NLIs) are environmental management tools for assessing the risk of diffuse N losses from agricultural fields. They range in complexity from simple proxy variables to elaborate systems of algebraic equations. Here we present an overview of NLIs developed in different parts of the world. NLIs can be categorized into source-based, transport-based, and composite approaches. Several issues demand more attention in future studies. (1) Is incorporation of leaching losses and gaseous losses into one single NLI warranted? (2) Is it sufficient to restrict the focus on the rooted soil zone without considering the vadose zone and aquifer? (3) Calibration and validation of NLIs using field data of N loss seems not sufficient. Comparisons of several different NLIs with each other needs more attention; however, the different scaling of NLIs impedes comparability. (4) Sensitivity of input parameters with regard to the final NLI output needs more attention in future studies. (5) For environmental management purposes, factors addressing management decision by farmers deserve more attention.     

Heavy metal contamination in the vicinity of an industrial area near Bucharest

Background, aim, and scope

Heavy metals such as lead are well known to cause harmful health effects. Especially children are particularly susceptible to increased levels of lead in their blood. It is also a fact that lead concentration is increasing in the environment due to increased anthropogenic activity. The risk of heavy metal contamination is pronounced in the environment adjacent to large industrial complexes. In a combined case study, the environmental pollution by heavy metals was related to children’s health in the vicinity of an industrial area located 4 km south-east from Bucharest about 2 km east from the nearest town—Pantelimon. This site includes companies processing different, nonferrous solid wastes for recovery of heavy metals and producing different nonferrous alloys and lead batteries. In this paper, mainly the results of environmental sampling and analyses are summarized.

Materials and methods

Water, soil, and atmospheric deposition samples were collected from different locations within 3 km from the industrial area. For comparison, samples were also taken from Bucharest. Water samples were filtered (<0.45 μm), extracted by salpetric acid, and quantified by ICP-OES and ICP-MS. Soil samples were dried, sieved (<2 mm), extracted by aqua regia and analyzed by AAS. In order to quantify the atmospheric deposition, three kinds of permanently open collecting pots were used on nine different sites between August and November 2006.

Results

At most sampling locations, the heavy metal concentrations in soil decrease with increasing distance to the presumably major source of pollution. Highest heavy metal concentrations were found in 10–20 cm soil depths. There were also decreasing heavy metal concentrations for atmospheric deposition with increasing distance to the industrial site. In surface and groundwater samples, traces of zinc, copper and lead were detected.

Discussion

The heavy metal concentrations in soil were increased in the study area, mostly under legal action limits in low-concern areas (e.g., 1,000 mg Pb/kg dry soil), but often above action limits for high-concern areas (100 mg Pb/kg dry soil) such as populated areas. The soluble lead concentrations in water samples indicate a need for monitoring and assessing water quality in more detail. The results for atmospheric deposition showed increased dust precipitation and heavy metal loads in the study area compared to Bucharest. However, based on mass flow balance calculations, the actual atmospheric deposition of heavy metals must be much lower than it was in the past decades.

Conclusions

It was shown that highest lead values in water, soil and atmospheric deposition are rather to be found near the investigated industrial site than at the control sites in Bucharest. Our results correspond very well with results that show that children from Pantelimon have significantly increased lead concentrations in their blood compared to children in Bucharest. The increased lead contamination around the investigated industrial area is likely to have caused the increased exposure for children living in Pantelimon.

Recommendations and perspectives

In high-concern areas, such as found in populated areas, further measures have to be taken to avoid health risks for people living in these areas. The measures already taken to reduce emissions from the industrial site will help to avoid further increases in heavy metal concentrations. In areas with exceeded action limits, measures have to be taken as required by law. Detailed risk assessments could help to take necessary actions to protect public health in this area. The public should be informed about the potential hazards of eating plants grown in that area. Educational programs for schools, informing children about the contamination, should lead to a better understanding of environmental problems and a more sustainable behavior in the future.

     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.