BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1

Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts.     

Waste management from the perspective of circularity of materials

The purpose of the study was to analyze the social phenomenon of collecting animal carcasses from rural properties using the perspective of the ecological modernization theory. The results show that the success of the Recolhe pilot project is associated with users’ engagement in environmental awareness, environmental regulations, sanitary and environmental risk management, minimization of labor in rural properties, and municipal legal pressures.     

Utilization of Waste Lignin and Hydrolysate From Chromium Tanned Waste in Blends of Hot-Melt Extruded PVA-Starch

The demand for biodegradable plastic material is increasing worldwide. However, the cost remains high in comparison with common forms of plastic. Requirements comprise low cost, good UV-stability and mechanical properties, as well as solubility and water uptake lead to the preparation of multi-component polymer blends based on polyvinyl alcohol and starch in combination with waste products that are hard to utilize—waste lignin and hydrolysate extracted from chromium tanned waste. Surprisingly the addition of such waste products into PVA gives rise to blends with better biodegradability than commercial PVA in an aquatic aerobic environment with non-adapted activated sludge. These blends also exhibited greater solubility in the water and UV stability than commercial PVA. Tests on the processing properties of the blends (melt flow index, tensile strength and elongation at break of the films) as well as their mechanical properties showed that materials based on these blends might be applied in agriculture (for example as the systems for controlled-release pesticide or fertilizer) and, somewhat, in the packaging sector.     

Mercury in fish tissues in the area of Malachov Hg-ore deposit (Slovakia)

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - The abandoned Malachov deposit belongs among the most important historic Hg deposits in the world. The soil, groundwater, surface water, plants, and animals...     

Use of hematological and plasma biochemical parameters to assess the chronic effects of a fungicide propiconazole on a freshwater teleost

Blood is an indicator of physiological condition of an animal. Therefore, the chronic effects of propiconazole, a triazole fungicide present in aquatic environment, on hematology of rainbow trout were investigated in this study. Fish were exposed at various concentrations of PCZ (0.2, 50 and 500 μg L(-1)) for 7, 20 and 30 d. Multiple biomarkers were measured, including hematological indices (hemoglobin concentration, red blood cells count, hematocrit, leukocyte count, mean erythrocyte hemoglobin, mean erythrocyte volume and mean color concentration) and plasma biochemical parameters (ammonia, glucose, total proteins, creatine kinase, lactate dehydrogenase, alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase). Through principal component analysis and integrated biomarker response assessment, influence extent induced by PCZ-stress of each test group was distinguished. Additional, all parameters measured in this study displayed different dependent patterns to PCZ concentrations and exposure time by two-way ANOVA. The results of this study indicate that chronic exposure of PCZ has altered multiple physiological indices in fish hematology and CK activity may be an early biomarker of PCZ toxicity; however, before these parameters are used as special biomarkers for monitoring residual PCZ in aquatic environment, more detailed experiments in laboratory need to be performed in the future.     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

Application of Zoning and “Limits of Acceptable Change” to Manage Snorkelling Tourism

Zoning and applying Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) are two promising strategies for managing tourism in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Typically, these management strategies require the collection and integration of ecological and socioeconomic data. This problem is illustrated by a case study of Koh Chang National Marine Park, Thailand. Biophysical surveys assessed coral communities in the MPA to derive indices of reef diversity and vulnerability. Social surveys assessed visitor perceptions and satisfaction with conditions encountered on snorkelling tours. Notably, increased coral mortality caused a significant decrease in visitor satisfaction. The two studies were integrated to prescribe zoning and “Limits of Acceptable Change” (LAC). As a biophysical indicator, the data suggest a LAC value of 0.35 for the coral mortality index. As a social indicator, the data suggest that a significant fraction of visitors would find a LAC value of under 30 snorkellers per site as acceptable. The draft zoning plan prescribed four different types of zones: (I) a Conservation Zone with no access apart from monitoring or research; (II) Tourism Zones with high tourism intensities at less vulnerable reefs; (III) Ecotourism zones with a social LAC standard of <30 snorkellers per site, and (IV) General Use Zones to meet local artisanal fishery needs. This study illustrates how ecological and socioeconomic field studies in MPAs can be integrated to craft zoning plans addressing multiple objectives.     

MULTICRITERIA PROGRAMMING OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS FOR RURAL AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to present a multicriteria methodology for decision aid at the stage of programming a water supply system (WSS) for a rural area. The programming stage is an intermediate one between planning and designing water supply facilities, and can be decomposed into two problems: (a) setting up a priority order of water users, taking into account socio-economic criteria; and (b) choosing the best technical variant of the WSS. Among the criteria considered for the latter problem, there is a criterion of distance between the socio-economic priorities of users and the precedence orders of users according to the technical programming, which plays a coordinating role between problems (a) and (b). All steps of the presented methodology are illustrated by a real case study.