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151.
Roland Barthel Roman Seidl Darla Nickel Hannah Büttner 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(6):1595-1611
Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential concept in environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources. In this paper, we focus on the use of PM to support the development of the integrated regional modeling system DANUBIA as a scientific concept to analyze the previously unknown impacts of global change, i.e., the combined effects of climate, demographic, economic, social and ecological change, on the Upper Danube Catchment (Germany). We use this case study to examine the specific conditions for PM in the field of complex integrated models on a regional scale. We describe the stepwise PM process and discuss the respective results, focusing on (1) the stakeholder dialogue’s contribution in supporting the development of new, complex modeling systems, particularly on a regional scale, (2) conditions of stakeholder involvement in issues related to the distant future, such as climate change impacts on regional water availability, and (3) limitations of PM and scientists’ motivation to carry out participatory research at all. We conclude that the PM process was not entirely successful in improving the scientific quality and practical applicability of the developed models because the process goals were manifold and overambitious, and the definition of the problem of “global change impacts on a regional scale” was too weak and uncertain to allow for a clear common objective of modelers and stakeholders. We claim that there is a lack of incentives for scientists, particularly natural scientists, to commit to PM activities. 相似文献
152.
Roman Seidl 《Ambio》2015,44(8):750-765
153.
Hal T. Nelson David von Hippel Tom Peterson Roman Garagulagian 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(3):480-500
This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008–2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions. 相似文献
154.
Kocí V Ocelka T Dragoun D Vit M Grabic R Sváb M 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2007,14(2):94-101
Background, Aim and Scope
The article is focused on dioxin, furan, PCB and organochlorine pesticide monitoring in the surface waters of the Central
European, protected natural reserve Krivoklatsko, under the UNESCO programme Man and Biosphere. Persistent compounds are presently
transported via different means throughout the entire world. This contamination varies significantly between sites. This raises
the question of what constitutes the naturally occurring background levels of POPs in natural, unpolluted areas, but which
are close to industrialised regions. Information of real background POP contamination can be of high value for risk assessment
management of those sites evidently polluted and for the defining of de-contamination limits.
Preserved areas should not be seen as isolated regions in which the impacts of human activities and natural factors are either
unexpected or overlooked. Every ambient region, even those protected by a law or other means, are still closely connected
to neighbouring human developed and impacted areas, and are therefore subject to this anthropogenic contamination. These areas
adjacent to natural reserves are sources of diverse substances, via entry of air, water, soil and/or biota. After an extended
period of industrial activities, organochlorine pollutants, even those emitted in trace concentrations have reached detectable
levels. For future research and for the assessment of environmental changes, present levels of contamination would be of high
importance. This work publishes data of the contamination with organochlorine pollutants of this natural region, where biodiversity
and ecological functions are of the highest order.
Materials and Methods:
Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were utilised as the sampling system. SPMDs were deployed in two small creeks and one
water reservoir selected in the central part of the Krivoklatsko Natural Reserve, where it could be expected that any possible
contamination by POPs would be lowest. The exposed SPMDs were analysed both for chemical contents of POPs and for toxicity
properties. The chemical analyses of dibenzo-dioxins, dibenzo-furans, PCBs and OCPs were analysed by GC/MS/MS on GCQ or PolarisQ
(Thermoquest). Toxicity bioassays were performed on the alga Desmodesmus subspicatus, bacteria Vibrio fischeri and crustacean
Daphnia magna. All toxicity data were expressed as the effective volume Vtox. Vtox is a toxicity parameter, the determination
of which is independent of SPMD deployment time and pre-treatment dilution (unlike, for example, the EC50 of the SPMD extract).
Results:
The following chemical parameters were monitored: 1) tetra, penta, hexa and hepta dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans; 2) all those
detectable from tri- through deca-polychloriated biphenyls (PCBs) and 3) a group of organochlorine pesticides: hexachlorobenzene
and isomers of hexachlorocyclohexane, DDE, DDD and DDT. The concentrations of dioxins and furans on the assessed sites varied
from under detection levels up to 7 pg.l-1; PCBs were detected in a sum concentration up to 2.8 ng.l-1; and organochlorine
pesticides up to 346 pg.l-1. The responses of bioassays used were very low, with the values obtained for Vtox being under
0.03 l/d.
Discussion:
Toxicity testing showed no toxicity responses, demonstrating that the system used is in coherence with the ecological status
of the assessed sites. Values of Vtox were under the critical value – showing no toxicity. The PCA of chemical analysis data
and toxicity responses resulted in no correlations between these two groups of parameters. This demonstrated that the present
level of contamination has had no direct adverse effects on the biota.
Conclusions:
The concentration values of six EPA-listed, toxic dioxins and sums of tetra-hepta dioxins; nine EPA toxic dibenzofurans and
the sums of tetra-hepta bibenzofurans are presented together with all tri-deka PCBs and organochlorine pesticides (alfa-,
beta-, gama-, delta-HCH, HCB, opDDE, ppDDE, opDDD, ppDDD, opDDT, ppDDT). These values represent possible current regional
natural background values of these substances monitored within the Central European region, with no recorded adverse effects
on the freshwater ecosystem (up until the present time).
Recommendations and Perspectives:
Assessment of dioxins, furans and other organochlorine compounds within natural reserves can be important for the monitoring
of human-induced impacts on preserved areas. No systematic monitoring of these substances in areas not directly affected by
industry has generally been realised. There is a paucity of data of the presence of any of these substances within natural
regions. Further monitoring of contamination of both soil and biota by dioxins and furans in preserve regions is needed and
can be used for future monitoring of man-made activities and/or accidents.
Semipermeable membrane devices proved to be a very good sampling system for the monitoring of trace concentrations of ambient
organochlorine compounds. Toxicity evaluation using the Vtox concept demonstrated that those localities assessed expressed
no toxicity. 相似文献